May 24, 2019
Summary: Plenty of residual upslope type clouds are crammed into the south valley this morning. The sounding above Bakersfield and Porterville indicated the base of the overcast is at 4,100 feet. In the central valley, partly cloudy conditions prevail. Even despite the clouds, we will have a rare dry day and night coming up as a very weak ridge passes through. A low center is developing over northwest Washington and it will dive southward right along the coast. It will be centered near northwest California Saturday morning and somewhere near Monterey Sunday morning.
Yet another cold front will move down the valley later Saturday. As it does, the chance of showers will increase after about midday or so. High resolution models are also indicating quite an uptick in the chance for scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Some storms will be right along the frontal band while others will be in advance of the front.
Sunday will also be a most interesting day as a pool of very cold unstable air moves overhead. Does all this sound familiar? With the very high sun angle which creates very strong warming, the dance of warm currents of air moving off the valley floor and interacting with that cold unstable stuff aloft will likely set the stage for more thunderstorms with, of course, localized heavy rain and small hail. Don’t be surprised if you hear of a funnel cloud or two this weekend.
The showers will continue right into Memorial Day morning then decrease rapidly by midday. It still appears Tuesday will be a turnaround day into a new pattern which will, number one, set up a prolonged period of dry weather and, number two, will allow for a warming trend. Even so, a weak baggy trough of low pressure will remain over the western states, maintaining temperatures in the mid to upper 80s later next week and into next weekend.
Some models are suggesting a strong ridge will be overhead week after next which could result in hot weather. After all, we’ll be moving into June by then, so that would not be a total shock.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon and tonight. Increasing cloudiness Saturday morning. Showers spreading southward in the afternoon with an increasing chance of thunderstorms. Periods of showers Saturday night through Monday morning. Scattered thunderstorms will be likely again Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Friday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/57/79/53/65 | Reedley 78/56/80/53/64 | Dinuba 77/56/79/52/63 | |
| Porterville 78/55/80/53/65 | Lindsay 78/55/81/53/65 | Delano 79/57/81/53/64 | |
| Bakersfield 78/59/81/57/65 | Taft 80/58/82/55/66 | Arvin 76/57/81/54/65 | |
| Lamont 77/56/81/55/67 | Pixley 78/56/80/54/65 | Tulare 77/55/80/53/64 | |
| Woodlake 77/54/80/53/65 | Hanford 77/57/81/54/65 | Orosi 77/55/79/52/64 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM showers 48/68 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 52/77 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 55/83 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 57/87 |
Friday
Mostly clear 56/87 |
Two Week Outlook: May 31 through June 6: This model is astonishingly showing upper level high pressure finally dominating the pattern over California and off shore. This configuration could actually drive temperatures above average for a change with little, if any, chance of precipitation.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through tonight and will be variable in nature. Winds later Saturday through Monday will be generally out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers, and especially thunderstorms.
Rain: The weather will actually be dry today into Saturday morning. A cold front will approach during the second half of the day with showers along and ahead of the front. Models are actually showing a decent chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Periods of showers will continue Saturday night through Monday morning. Conditions during the day Sunday appear optimal for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Periods of showers will continue well into Memorial Day morning. Finally, by Monday afternoon the low should be far enough to the southeast to introduce a dry forecast. For Tuesday and the remainder of next week, expect dry conditions, surprisingly.
Potential rainfall amounts from this upcoming event could be locally significant, especially if thunderstorms break out. I would not be totally surprised to see local amounts of .50 where thunderstorms occur and even upwards of .25 where they do not.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 45%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/85%
Actual Humidity May 23, 2019: Delano, 100%/44% Porterville, 92%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .89, Parlier 1.11, Blackwell 1.13, Lindcove .NA, Arvin .97, Orange Cove .97, Porterville .97, Delano 1.10. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 65, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 68, Delano 66
Record Temperatures: 103/41. Average Temperatures: 86/56
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 160 +24
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 66.4 -1.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.64 season. or +.63. Month to Date: 2.17 +1.83
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.48, or +1.24. Month to Date: 1.48 +1.33
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:45 am Sunset: 8:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:19
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 73 / 57 / 0.28 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 76 / 56 / 0.04 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 76 / 54 / 0.04 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / M / M / 0.03 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 75 / 55 / 0.06 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1647 / 73 / 65 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 73 / 54 / 0.17 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 75 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 76 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.32 135 9.09 67 13.58 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.89 102 8.00 64 12.59 13.11
MERCED T 13.13 110 6.91 58 11.99 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.38 99 7.22 63 11.50 12.02
FRESNO 0.28 11.54 105 6.73 61 11.01 11.50
HANFORD 0.04 8.74 90 4.70 49 9.66 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.03 7.44 119 3.93 63 6.24 6.47
BISHOP 0.02 8.39 189 1.47 33 4.45 5.18
SALINAS T 13.72 110 7.13 57 12.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.85 120 9.62 78 12.40 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.01 15.57 114 6.01 44 13.68 13.95
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Next report: Saturday, May 25