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Forecast

May 31, 2019/report

May 31, 2019

Summary: The center of circulation of a weak upper low appears to be near Merced County this morning.  Cloud cover over northern California is running from east to west while from Fresno County south, what little cloud cover there is is running from west to east.  The low is projected to move very slowly towards the southwest, centering somewhere near Vandenberg Saturday and Saturday night.  with the lifting mechanism of low pressure, aided by the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, scattered showers and thunderstorms will become likely each afternoon through Sunday in those mountain locations.

 

The counterclockwise motion around this feature will eventually have the winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere out of the east/northeast which will nudge scattered showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor with the greatest risk during the afternoon and evening hours.  The chance of measurable precipitation at any given location on the valley floor will remain at about 20% through Sunday with the greatest risk along the foothills of the Sierra Nevada.

 

Temperatures which yesterday reached the 90 degree mark at some locations will begin to fall back a bit.  As pressures fall aloft, mid to upper 80s seem likely this weekend with in and out cloud cover.  By Monday, the low will finally shift southward into northwest Mexico, ending the threat of precipitation.

 

The pattern for Tuesday through Friday of next week appears zonal as a flat zone of high pressure creates a west to east flow into California.  This will also allow temperatures to move into the mid to upper 90s. Considering record highs for this time of year are between 108 and 110, 90s seem mild in comparison.

 

Medium range models indicate a weak trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California next weekend with the main ramifications being a moderate cooling trend.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Sunday night.  there will be a small risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoons and evenings.  Becoming mostly clear Monday through Friday of next week with a warming trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 87/58/88/62/88 Reedley 88/59/89/60/89 Dinuba 87/57/88/58/88
Porterville 88/58/89/59/89 Lindsay 87/56/88/58/89 Delano 88/60/89/61/89
Bakersfield 89/64/89/65/89 Taft 88/66/89/67/88 Arvin 90/62/89/63/90
Lamont 90/62/89/63/89 Pixley 88/59/89/60/89 Tulare 87/57/88/57/88
Woodlake 87/58/88/59/88 Hanford 87/59/88/59/88 Orosi 87/56/88/57/88

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

61/91

Tuesday

Mostly clear

62/94

Wednesday

Mostly clear

63/97

Thursday

Mostly clear

64/97

Friday

Mostly clear

62/96

 

Two Week Outlook: June 4 through June 10:  This model is showing a stronger ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and western U.S.  As a result, above average temperatures can be expected with little, to any, chance of precipitation.

 

June: The first month of meteorological summer indicates temperatures will only be marginally above average over northern and central California.  In other words, patterns for early summer should be fairly typical.  The usual generally dry conditions will prevail.

 

June, July, August: If this model has any grip at all on the pattern for summer of 2019, it is the fact that it will be a hot one, even hotter than usual.  As a more persistent ridge remains over the west and lower pressure over the middle of the country the usual generally dry conditions will prevail.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours.  Winds during the afternoon and evening will be mainly out of the northwest.

 

Rain: A weak upper low will be in the vicinity of central California through Sunday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely over the Sierra Nevada with even a chance of some activity over the Kern County mountains and possibly even the Coast Range.  It’s possible a few cells could drift over the valley floor through Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.  The chance of measurable rain at any given location will be around 20% and if showers or storms do occur, rainfall amounts would generally be less than .10 but locally more thunderstorms develop.  Dry weather will return Sunday night and last all of next week, and  more than likely beyond.

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Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/85% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 35%/75%

Actual Humidity May 30, 2019: Delano, 94%/33% Porterville, 92%/28%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 60%  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 50%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.29, Parlier 1.25, Blackwell 1.57, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.44, Orange Cove 1.19, Porterville 1.31, Delano 1.34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 67, Blackwell 70, Lindcove, 68, Arvin, 67, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 69, Delano 68

Record Temperatures: 110/46. Average Temperatures: 88/57

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 183 -0

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 66.2 -2.4

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.76.  Month to Date: 2.38 +1.96

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.57, or +1.30.  Month to Date: 1.57 +1.39

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:41 am  Sunset: 8:12 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:28

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  91 /  60 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  89 /  64 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  91 /  58 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  90 /  58 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  91 /  65 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  89 /  59 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1655 /  87 /  60 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  90 /  59 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  88 /  67 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  85 /  57 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.67    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   105    8.17    64    12.70    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   110    7.06    59    12.05    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    99    7.22    63    11.54    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   107    6.73    61    11.09    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    98    4.70    48     9.73    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.57   121    3.95    63     6.27     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.42   188    1.49    33     4.49     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   110    7.15    57    12.53    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.43    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.72    13.95

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Next report:  Saturday, June 1