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Forecast

June 22, 2019/report

June 22, 2019

Summary: The trough of low pressure which resulted in a strong push of  modified marine air into the valley has now moved into the Rocky Mountain region.  Winds at Traverse Air Force Base in the Delta are southwest at  just 6 MPH, meaning the flow of cooler air into the valley is over for a time.  The marine layer itself has shrunk back to 1,500 feet.

 

Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific is beginning to nose into northern and central California.  This will result in noticeably warmer weather today with readings peaking out at or just above the 100 degree mark tomorrow and Monday.  Fortunately, the center of the high will remain off shore, meaning no excessively hot temperatures are expected.

 

By Monday night, the high will begin to flatten out over northern California in response to a low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska.  It will eventually be off the Oregon coast Wednesday then will  move into the Pacific Northwest with a trough of low pressure stretching down  into northern and central California.  There will be a dry southwest flow aloft underneath the low and into central California.  At the surface, a strong push of marine air inland will occur beginning Tuesday with very mild weather Wednesday through Friday of next week.

 

By next weekend, a flat zone of high pressure will move in from the west, nudging temperatures back up to near seasonal levels.  There is definitely a trend developing on upper level high pressure developing over the Four Corners region during the first few days of July.  Typically, this pattern results in hot weather for central California, but currently it appears the so far non existent monsoon this season will be suppressed to our south.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Wednesday.  Continued to be mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 93/61/99/64/100 Reedley 95/62/99/65/100 Dinuba 93/60/97/64/99
Porterville 94/64/100/66/101 Lindsay 94/62/98/65/101 Delano 95/66/100/67/101
Bakersfield 95/68/101/71/102 Taft 95/71/100/74/101 Arvin 95/65/100/68/101
Lamont 95/65/100/68/101 Pixley 93/62/98/64/100 Tulare 92/61/98/64/99
Woodlake 93/62/97/64/100 Hanford 95/62/99/65/101 Orosi 92/62/98/64/100

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

63/96

Wednesday

Mostly clear

59/89

Thursday

Mostly clear

56/87

Friday

Mostly clear

57/88

Saturday

Mostly clear

61/95

 

Two Week Outlook: June 28 through July 4:  This model shows the possibility of high pressure building over the Four Corners region.  If this happens, we may see fairly hot weather during this time frame with no chance of precipitation.

 

 

July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average.  With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.

 

July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period.  Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH afternoons and evenings through Monday and mainly out of the northwest.  During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Tuesday will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with possible gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/70% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 20%/55%

Actual Humidity June 21, 2019: Delano, 71%/24% Porterville, 79%/22%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.99, Parlier 1.96, Blackwell 2.21, Arvin 2.16, Orange Cove 2.05, Porterville 2.02, Delano 1.97. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 77, Blackwell 87, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, 79, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 86, Delano 83

Record Temperatures: 109/49. Average Temperatures: 94/62

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 508 +134

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for June so far: 79.7 +6.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.56.  Month to Date: .00 -.19

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.46.  Month to Date: .23 +.16

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:41 am  Sunset: 8:21 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:40

Yesterday’s Weather:

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  88 /  63 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  89 /  61 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  88 /  57 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  88 /  64 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  86 /  59 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1656 /  86 /  59 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  88 /  59 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1653 /  87 /  64 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  86 /  57 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.75    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.81    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    98    7.22    62    11.71    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    60    11.29    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    48     9.88    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   123    3.95    62     6.34     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   183    1.49    32     4.64     5.18

SALINAS                          T   13.80   109    7.15    57    12.62    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.75    13.95

Next report:  Monday, June 24