Updates
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Forecast

July 5, 2019/report

 July 3, 2019

Summary: Weak upper level high pressure is building slowly northward from its center off the Baja, California coast.  This will allow that trough of low pressure to retreat northward.  The result will be a temporary warming trend with hottest locations by Saturday afternoon moving into the lower 100s.  even though the marine layer is near 2,000 feet deep, the onshore flow has weakened to the point where that modified sea breeze will not penetrate through the Delta or other gaps and passes along the Coast Range and into the valley.

 

By Sunday, however, that low center over the Pacific Northwest will reestablish, digging yet another trough of low pressure southward into northern and central California.  Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will again fall to marginally below average as the marine layer deepens further, spilling through those passes along the Coast Range and through the Delta.

 

It appears we will begin to see a traditional summertime pattern Wednesday, setting up an upper level high generally centered over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest.  Typically, California is on the western side of this high. If things set up just right, a southerly flow will develop, possibly allowing a limited amount of mid and high level moisture into central and southern California.  However, models at this time do not show an influx of monsoon moisture.

 

The high is projected to be in a position over the southwest for at least several days for possible triple digits Wednesday and Thursday and lasting through next weekend.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday.  Mostly clear Tuesday through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 97/62/100/64/94 Reedley 98/61/100/63/95 Dinuba 97/61/99/62/95
Porterville 99/61/101/63/96 Lindsay 98/60/100/63/96 Delano 99/64/101/65/96
Bakersfield 99/68/101/71/97 Taft 99/73/100/75/97 Arvin 99/65/101/67/97
Lamont 100/65/101/67/98 Pixley 98/62/101/63/96 Tulare 97/61/99/62/95
Woodlake 98/61/100/63/94 Hanford 98/63/99/64/95 Orosi 98/61/99/62/94

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

58/93

Tuesday

Mostly clear

57/91

Wednesday

Mostly clear

62/97

Thursday

Mostly clear

65/100

Friday

Mostly clear

66/101

 

Two Week Outlook: July 12 through July 18:  The trend the past couple of model runs is for dominant high pressure over the western one-third of the U.S.  This will result in above average temperatures during this time frame with the usual dry conditions continuing.

 

July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average.  With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.

 

July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period.  Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.

 

Winds:  Winds through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings, decreasing to around 5 to 10 MPH during the late  night through early morning hours.  Winds Sunday and Monday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/70% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 15%/55%

Actual Humidity July 4, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.05, Parlier 1.97, Blackwell 2.01, Arvin 2.11, Orange Cove 2.13, Porterville 1.94, Delano 1.94. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 78, Blackwell 78, Lindcove, 75, Arvin, 77, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 86, Delano 81

Record Temperatures: 112/52. Average Temperatures: 97/65

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 660 +128

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for July so far: 76.1 -1.9

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.54.  Month to Date: .00 -.00

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.45.  Month to Date: .00 +.00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:46 am  Sunset: 8:21 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:34

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  92 /  55 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  93 /  65 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  94 /  58 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /   M /  55 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  93 /  66 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  92 /  59 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  91 /  58 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1657 /  92 /  69 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    97    7.22    62    11.73    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    60    11.31    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    48     9.89    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   123    3.95    62     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   181    1.49    32     4.69     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   109    7.15    57    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.76    13.95

Next report:  Saturday, July 6