July 23, 2019
Summary: Variable cloudiness has spread into central California from the south via the monsoon. As of 7:00am, Doppler radar was showing scattered showers over the deserts and mountains of Kern County and even an isolated thunderstorm over Tehachapi. This is the first round of monsoon moisture this season. It’s possible that from now through Thursday, a sprinkle or two could occur somewhere over the valley floor through Thursday evening. On rare occasions, even a few hundredths of an inch could fall.
Strong upper level high pressure is now anchored over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest. The clockwise flow around the high will create two noteworthy conditions. First, a south/southeast flow will continue to move monsoonal moisture into California through Thursday. Second will be the heat as readings will soar well past the century mark each day for the remainder of the week and into next week, as well.
The upper high is actually forecast to center over Arizona by Thursday and possibly even over southern California over the weekend. This would drive temperatures even higher. As the center settles over southern California over the weekend, the center will be blocked as the moisture from Mexico moves westward instead of northward, placing it over the Pacific. Most of the models show the center drifting back over the Four corners region by the middle of next week. This could cause monsoonal moisture to return to central California.
The bottom line is, it will be hot over the next seven to ten days with bouts of monsoonal moisture moving in through Thursday then possibly beginning again next Wednesday.
Forecast: There will be periods of variable cloudiness at times interspersed with periods of sunny weather through Thursday. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out through the period. Expect hot conditions to continue. Mostly clear skies Thursday through Tuesday and continued hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 102/71/103/71/104 | Reedley 103/72/103/73/104 | Dinuba 102/70/103/71/103 |
| Porterville 102/73/103/73/105 | Lindsay 101/70/103/71/104 | Delano 102/73/103/74/104 |
| Bakersfield 102/80/104/81/105 | Taft 103/81/104/82/105 | Arvin 102/76/104/77/106 |
| Lamont 103/77/104/78/105 | Pixley 103/72/103/73/104 | Tulare 102/69/103/71/104 |
| Woodlake 102/69/103/71/103 | Hanford 102/74/103/74/104 | Orosi 102/68/103/71/104 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 72/106 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 74/107 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 74/106 |
Monday
Mostly clear 71/105 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 68/102 |
Two Week Outlook: July 29 through August 4: This model is showing a fairly amplified pattern for the time of year with a trough east of the Rockies and a big upper high over the western states. This pattern is conducive for above average temperatures. The monsoon could very well affect the Sierra Nevada and southern California, but by and large, the valley will remain dry.
July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average. With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.
July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period. Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.
Winds: Winds will be generally in the 5 to 12 MPH range and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings. Periods of near calm conditions can be expected nights and mornings through Friday.
Rain: Already this morning, heavy cloud cover has moved over the region from the first really good monsoonal burst of the season. A few showers are actually showing up near Buttonwillow and isolated thunderstorms over the Tehachapi Mountains and the extreme southern Sierra Nevada. Sprinkles or even an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out today through Thursday as in and out bouts of cloud cover move in from the south/southeast. Dry weather will return Friday and will last at least through next Tuesday as the monsoon will be blocked, possibly returning by the middle of next week. Measurable rain is very unlikely at any given location but I wouldn’t be surprised if an isolated locations or two recorded measurable rain between now and Thursday.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/55% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/50%
Actual Humidity range July 22, 2019: Delano, 78%/29% Porterville, 77%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.88, Parlier 1.94, Blackwell 2.36, Arvin 2.10, Orange Cove 2.12, Porterville 1.97, Delano 1.97. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell 88, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 90, Delano 85
Record Temperatures: 113/55. Average Temperatures: 99/66
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 951 +162
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for July so far: 80.0 +0.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.45. Month to Date: .00 +.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:58 am Sunset: 8:12 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 101 / 66 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 103 / 73 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 102 / 72 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 68 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 103 / 75 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 101 / 68 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 102 / 67 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 103 / 77 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 99 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 177 2.95 62 4.78 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 120 9.62 77 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.78 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, July 24