July 25, 2019
Summary: Monsoonal moisture continues to move northward due to the clockwise circulation around strong upper level high pressure over the Four Corners region. Like yesterday, there will be more thunderstorms firing up over the southern Sierra Nevada with isolated storms popping up over the mountains and deserts of southern California, including the Kern County mountains. In and out cloud cover over the valley floor likely will not be enough to inhibit triple digit temperatures today.
The Four Corners high will drift southwestward, eventually locating over northwest Mexico and extreme southern California by Friday evening. It will be over southern California Saturday and Sunday. This will begin to block the flow of moisture as the main flow will be forced underneath the high, moving it from east to west through northern Mexico and eventually over the Pacific just off the Baja coast.
The strong downward motion of the high will inhibit thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Saturday through Monday and, with generally clear skies and the center of the high in close proximity, temperatures will soar over the weekend, peaking out in the 105 to 111 degree range Sunday.
By Monday night, the meandering high will shift back to the Four Corners region, this may allow a return to monsoonal moisture working its way up the western side of the high and into central California by Tuesday. However, if this occurs, it will be short lived as models show a weak trough moving into the northwest, flattening out the high and turning winds aloft southwesterly and nudging the monsoon to our east. This trough should cause the onshore flow to increase enough to allow a weak surge of marine air into the valley Wednesday and Thursday, possibly lowering temperatures into the upper 90s.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today through this evening. Continued hot. Mostly clear from late tonight through Monday and continued hot. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday with a slow cooling trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 103/72/103/73/105 | Reedley 102/71/103/72/104 | Dinuba 102/71/103/72/104 |
| Porterville 104/72/104/73/106 | Lindsay 103/71/103/72/105 | Delano 104/74/104/75/106 |
| Bakersfield 104/80/105/81/106 | Taft 104/81/105/82/106 | Arvin 104/76/105/77/107 |
| Lamont 104/76/105/76/107 | Pixley 103/71/104/72/106 | Tulare 102/71/103/72/105 |
| Woodlake 103/71/104/72/105 | Hanford 104/72/104/73/106 | Orosi 103/70/103/72/105 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear Hot 74/108 |
Monday
Mostly clear Hot 74/104 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 67/99 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 64/98 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 63/99 |
Two Week Outlook: July 29 through August 4: This model is showing a fairly amplified pattern for the time of year with a trough east of the Rockies and a big upper high over the western states. This pattern is conducive for above average temperatures. The monsoon could very well affect the Sierra Nevada and southern California, but by and large, the valley will remain dry.
July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average. With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.
July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period. Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.
Winds: Winds will be generally in the 5 to 12 MPH range and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings. Periods of near calm conditions can be expected nights and mornings through Sunday.
Rain: This will be the last day of the flow of monsoonal moisture into central California. For now, it just appears variable amounts of mid and high level clouds will stream overhead through tonight. High pressure will cut off the flow later Friday through Monday for dry conditions. We could see a brief return of the monsoon later Monday, but for now no precipitation threat is seen. By Wednesday, the flow aloft will be southwesterly which should efficiently sweet the monsoon into Arizona and Utah. Nothing medium range suggesting any precipitation threat any time soon.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/55% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/40%
Actual Humidity range July 24, 2019: Delano, 88%/16% Porterville, 85%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.89, Parlier 1.91, Blackwell 2.27, Arvin 1.96, Orange Cove 2.08, Porterville 1.86, Delano 1.86. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell 88, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 90, Delano 85
Record Temperatures: 113/56. Average Temperatures: 99/66
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 995 +176
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for July so far: 80.6 +1.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.45. Month to Date: .T +.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:00 am Sunset: 8:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:12
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 103 / 65 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 106 / 75 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 70 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 68 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 102 / 76 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 101 / 69 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 101 / 70 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 105 / 76 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.35 6.47
BISHOP T 8.47 176 3.01 63 4.81 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 120 9.62 77 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.78 13.95
Next report: Friday, July 26