August 26, 2019
Summary: The high clouds over the valley this morning are from the remnants of former tropical storm Ivo which is now no more than a very weak low center several hundred miles off the Oregon coast. This system poses no threat of precipitation whatsoever. Upper level high pressure stretches from central California to well off the northern California coast. We are now under a bubble of warm, subsiding air which will maintain temperatures in the 100 to 105 degree range through Wednesday with the heat peaking Tuesday afternoon. The high has crushed the marine layer down to 800 feet. Some of the mountain stations are very warm this morning. For example, Bear Peak at an elevation of 8,200 feet was reporting 64 degrees at 6:00am. The freezing level is all the way up to 17,100 feet.
We may dip down into double digits Thursday but just barely then level off into the mid to upper 90s Friday and through the weekend. I always look towards the south and southeast this time of year for potential moisture sources. We may see the return of the monsoon about Sunday or Monday of next week as most of the models are indicating a strong high over the Four Corners region will create a south/southeast flow aloft over California. This would favor tapping into subtropical moisture over Mexico and moving it northward for possible afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the high Sierra and partly cloudy skies over the valley.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear and hot through Wednesday. mostly clear and a bit cooler Thursday through Saturday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 101/67/103/68/102 | Reedley 102/67/103/69/102 | Dinuba 100/66/102/68/102 |
| Porterville 102/67/103/68/102 | Lindsay 102/66/103/67/101 | Delano 103/70/104/71/103 |
| Bakersfield 102/76/104/77/103 | Taft 102/79/103/80/102 | Arvin 103/72/105/73/103 |
| Lamont 102/72/105/73/104 | Pixley 102/69/104/71/102 | Tulare 100/66/103/69/102 |
| Woodlake 102/68/103/70/102 | Hanford 102/69/104/71/103 | Orosi 101/68/103/69/102 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 65/100 |
Friday
Mostly clear 62/96 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 63/99 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 66/101 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 67/101 |
Two Week Outlook: September 1 through September 7: This model is showing a reasonably decent chance of monsoonal moisture working its way northward into central and southern California. Typically this pattern sets off afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and, on rare occasions, sprinkles or isolated showers over the valley. Overall, most locations will remain dry. This regime will result in generally above average temperatures.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and mainly out of the northwest through Thursday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 8 MPH with possible periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: I’ll maintain a dry forecast for the next week to ten days. Some models are indicating a possible south to southeast flow developing Sunday and Monday of next week which could result in monsoonal moisture working its way into central California. If it does happen, there would be a chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada with generally partly cloudy skies over the valley floor. Again, we’ll keep the forecast dry but we’ll be watching this closely.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: : Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/60% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/50%
Actual Humidity range August 25, 2019: Delano, 83%/29% Porterville, 73%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.67, Parlier 1.71, Blackwell 1.93, Arvin 1.94, Orange Cove 1.90, Porterville 1.75, Delano 1.73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 80, Blackwell 89, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 77, Porterville NA, Delano 77
Record Temperatures: 108/52. Average Temperatures: 96/62
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1567 +308
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for August so far: 82.0 +3.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.52. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.42. Month to Date: .00 -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:26 am Sunset: 7:34 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 102 / 67 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 103 / 74 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 102 / 68 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 102 / 70 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 101 / 76 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 67 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 100 / 76 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 133 9.22 67 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.76 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.92 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 122 3.95 62 6.38 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 171 3.02 61 4.96 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 119 9.62 77 12.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.80 13.95
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Next report: Tuesday, August 27