September 12, 2019
Summary: It will be noticeably warmer today as the autumn like trough of low pressure has moved, stretching from eastern Montana southward into Colorado. Pressures are increasing from off shore as a zone of upper level high pressure will stretch from the waters off the California coast all the way eastward into the southeastern U.S. by Friday. One of the high centers will be just off shore, resulting in well above average temperatures by Friday, peaking on Saturday. even as early as Friday afternoon, readings will push the century mark with most locations in the lower 100s by Saturday. the air aloft is certainly warming. The freezing level over Vandenberg is now just under 16,000 feet. At the surface, the marine layer along the coast has been crushed all the way down to 500 feet. Winds both at Pacheco Pass and through the Delta were light and variable early this morning.
The next cooling trend will be rather dramatic as well as a strong low develops in the Gulf of Alaska, sliding south/southeast to near Vancouver Island Sunday. By Monday afternoon, the bottom side of the low will sink into northern and central California. One model shows light showers as far south as Monterey along the coast and Modesto inland Monday afternoon through Tuesday with light showers spreading down the Sierra Nevada at least as far south as Yosemite.
Medium range models are quite uniform this morning, indicating temperatures will only warm into the mid to upper 70s Tuesday. These same models show a massive high building over the eastern Pacific Ocean Wednesday with a ridge extending northward into the Gulf of Alaska. This high will slowly move eastward into the western U.S. for another round of above average temperatures by next weekend.
Forecast: Clear and warmer through Saturday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. partly cloudy, breezy, and much cooler Monday through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Thursday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 94/60/97/63/100 | Reedley 95/61/97/63/101 | Dinuba 93/60/96/64/99 |
| Porterville 95/60/97/64/101 | Lindsay 94/59/97/62/100 | Delano 95/63/97/66/100 |
| Bakersfield 96/67/99/69/101 | Taft 95/70/98/72/101 | Arvin 96/63/98/66/102 |
| Lamont 96/64/99/67/101 | Pixley 95/61/97/63/100 | Tulare 93/60/96/62/99 |
| Woodlake 94/60/96/63/100 | Hanford 95/61/97/65/101 | Orosi 93/59/97/63/100 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 63/96 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 55/81 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 53/78 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 52/82 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 54/89 |
Two Week Outlook: September 19 through September 26: Upper level high pressure will be the dominant feature over and off the west coast during this time frame. For now, it appears the chance of precipitation is very low with above average temperatures.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and mainly out of the northwest. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday night. Winds Sunday afternoon will begin to increase out of the west at 10 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH, mainly out of the northwest, Sunday night and Monday with gusts to 35 MPH possible Monday, mainly along the west side of Kings and Fresno Counties but locally elsewhere.
Rain: Models continue to show a strong early season low pressure system affecting California Sunday night through Tuesday. Some models show showers over northern California southward to a Monterey/Modesto line. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry as models the past few days have shown the rain line north of our district. Nevertheless, we’ll study this evolving pattern closely.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: : Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/60% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/45%
Actual Humidity range September 11, 2019: Delano, 84%/23% Porterville, 75%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.48, Parlier 1.47, Blackwell 1.59, Arvin 1.63, Orange Cove 1.64, Porterville 1.44, Delano 1.47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 78, Blackwell NA, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 76, Porterville NA, Delano 74
Record Temperatures: 105/48. Average Temperatures: 92/60
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1848 +401
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 79.6 +4.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.49. Month to Date: .00 -.03
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.42. Month to Date: .02 -.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 am Sunset: 7:10 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:34
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 87 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 88 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 86 / 53 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 83 / 63 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 87 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 133 9.22 67 13.82 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 63 12.89 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 108 7.06 57 12.28 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.83 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 104 6.73 59 11.36 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 95 4.70 47 9.97 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 3.95 62 6.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 169 3.08 61 5.02 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 56 12.68 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 76 12.58 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.84 13.95
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Next report: Friday, September 13