September 14, 2019
Summary: Today will be the last of the triple digits for a while. Most locations this afternoon will top out in the 99 to 102 degree range as upper level high pressure is almost directly above central California. The marine layer remains very shallow with the latest sounding at the naval installation at Monterey indicating a depth of just 600 feet. Winds at Pacheco Pass and in the Delta are currently dead calm.
This will change in a hurry beginning Sunday as a strong early season low moves south/southeast to a position near Vancouver Island. On Monday, the low will elongate from southern British Columbia to central California. Even though this system is moisture starved, on paper anyway it has reasonably decent dynamics for this early in the year. There is a minimal chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers from mainly Fresno county north Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning with a slight chance of sprinkles down to a Hanford/Visalia line. Precipitation amounts, if at all, will range from a trace to no more than a few hundredths.
The main impact will be much cooler temperatures as a drop of 15 to 20 degrees will occur Monday along with strong, gusty, north to northwest winds at times, especially along the west side. This first low will move into the interior west Tuesday only to be replaced by another low, also with its origins in the Gulf of Alaska, which will move into northern and central California later Wednesday night and Thursday. Models indicate any precipitation from this system will be confined to northern California and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
By late Friday and Saturday, a large high over the eastern Pacific will begin to shift to the east into the western U.S. for the next warming trend. All in all, however, after the long hot summer this will be a refreshing change into autumn mode.
Forecast: Clear skies through tonight. Becoming partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday. Becoming breezy and much cooler. There will be a small chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers from mainly Fresno County northward Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning with a slight chance of a few sprinkles as far south as a Hanford/Visalia line. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday night. mostly clear Friday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 100/62/94/57/81 | Reedley 101/61/96/58/83 | Dinuba 99/61/95/57/82 |
| Porterville 101/62/96/58/83 | Lindsay 100/60/96/57/83 | Delano 101/65/97/61/84 |
| Bakersfield 102/71/98/65/85 | Taft 100/73/98/58/85 | Arvin 102/67/98/63/87 |
| Lamont 102/67/98/63/86 | Pixley 101/61/98/58/84 | Tulare 99/61/95/57/82 |
| Woodlake 100/61/96/57/83 | Hanford 101/62/96/58/82 | Orosi 100/61/96/56/82 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
AM showers possible 50/81 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 52/85 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 53/80 |
Friday
Mostly clear 52/85 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 56/91 |
Two Week Outlook: September 19 through September 26: Upper level high pressure will be the dominant feature over and off the west coast during this time frame. For now, it appears the chance of precipitation is very low with above average temperatures.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH this afternoon and evening, and mainly out of the northwest. Winds tonight will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Later Sunday, winds will be out of the west at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly in western Kings, Fresno, and Madera Counties. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will occasionally be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, but local gusts to 35 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side and from Fresno County north.
Rain: A strong low with origins in the Gulf of Alaska will affect central California Monday through Tuesday morning. Models continue to indicate this feature will be moisture starved, but it will have decent dynamics for this early in the season. There will be a small chance of sprinkles or even isolated light showers from Fresno County north from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out as far south as a Hanford/Visalia line. South of that line, we do anticipate dry conditions for now. Rainfall amounts, if any, will generally be just trace amounts. However, a few hundredths would not be a total shock. Dry weather will return Tuesday afternoon and will continue for the remainder of next week. For now, it appears another system will affect central California late Wednesday night and Thursday, however models indicate the rain line will be confined to northern California. High pressure will take over from Friday and beyond for what appears to be a prolonged period of dry weather.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: : Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 15%/65% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/50%
Actual Humidity range September 13, 2019: Delano, 86%/22% Porterville, 77%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.47, Parlier 1.46, Blackwell 1.53, Arvin 1.60, Orange Cove 1.61, Porterville 1.46, Delano 1.44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 76, Blackwell NA, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 75, Porterville NA, Delano 73
Record Temperatures: 106/47. Average Temperatures: 92/60
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1870 +404
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 79.0 +3.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.48. Month to Date: .00 -.04
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.41. Month to Date: .02 -.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:41 am Sunset: 7:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:28
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 99 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 99 / 65 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 56 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 100 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 97 / 66 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 96 / 58 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 97 / 73 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 97 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 133 9.22 67 13.84 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 103 8.17 63 12.90 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 108 7.06 57 12.30 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 96 7.22 61 11.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 104 6.73 59 11.37 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 95 4.70 47 9.98 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 3.95 62 6.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 168 3.08 61 5.04 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 56 12.69 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 76 12.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.85 13.95
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Next report: A rain update will be issued Sunday morning, September 15.