September 20, 2019
Summary: Today will be the beginning of a short lived warming trend which will only last through Sunday. Upper level high pressure is starting to move eastward from the eastern Pacific and into California. The trough of low pressure that resulted in such pleasant temperatures yesterday has shifted into Idaho and northern Utah. Readings will creep back into the 80 degree plus territory today then may top 90 Saturday with warmer locations in the mid 90s Sunday.
To our south, the eastern Pacific is churning with tropical activity. Hurricane Lorene is located in the extreme southern Gulf of California but is projected to move northwest, clipping extreme southern Baja then weakening rapidly as it moves north/northwest along the Baja, California coastline. It will end up just off the north/central Baja coast by midnight Monday. The moisture field from this system will clip southeastern California with the bulk of the moisture moving into Arizona and New Mexico Sunday night through Monday night. none of this moisture will affect central California.
The next trough of low pressure will move to a position in extreme western Nevada late Sunday night and Monday. No rain is expected on the valley floor, but there will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.
The next high will move in from the west Tuesday night through Thursday then the pattern may become quite interesting. For two days in a row now, the GFS model has placed a strong low over northern California Friday, moving further south next weekend and possibly forming a cut off low by the following Monday over southern California. It could even end up over northwest Mexico. I am not ready to add a chance of rain to the forecast at this moment, but this system will certainly deserve top attention.
Forecast: Clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/53/90/56/92 | Reedley 84/53/91/57/93 | Dinuba 82/52/89/55/91 |
| Porterville 84/54/90/57/93 | Lindsay 84/52/90/56/93 | Delano 84/56/91/58/94 |
| Bakersfield 83/61/91/65/95 | Taft 84/64/91/66/94 | Arvin 85/57/91/60/95 |
| Lamont 84/57/91/61/95 | Pixley 83/53/90/56/92 | Tulare 82/52/89/56/92 |
| Woodlake 83/52/90/57/93 | Hanford 83/54/91/57/93 | Orosi 83/51/89/54/93 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 57/87 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 57/89 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 58/94 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 58/85 |
Friday
Mostly cloudy 55/81 |
Two Week Outlook: September 27 through October 3: This model shows an active weather pattern over the western United States. Precipitation cannot be ruled out during this period as a big area of low pressure may affect the western U.S. Temperatures would range below seasonal averages.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 MPH through Sunday night. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 6 MPH with generally calm conditions. Winds Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.
Rain: There is plenty of action over the eastern tropical Pacific. Hurricane Lorena will move north/northwest, skirting the Baja coast and ending up off the north central Baja coastline by midnight Monday. I do not anticipate any moisture from this storm will affect the valley, but it may very well clip the Imperial Valley and points eastward. Dry weather will continue through at least next Thursday night. I’m starting to get a little nervous about Friday through next weekend. For the second day in a row, models show a strong low developing over northern California Friday, moving slowly southward Saturday through the following Monday. Even though the chance of measurable rain appears low at this time, it does bear watching. Again, this would be for a week from now through next weekend.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: : Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/55%
Actual Humidity range September 19, 2019: Delano, 82%/33% Porterville, 91%/29%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.46, Parlier 1.36, Blackwell Corner 1.45, Arvin 1.47, Orange Cove 1.47, Porterville 1.33, Delano 1.34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 75, Blackwell NA, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 74, Porterville 84, Delano 72
Record Temperatures: 104/46. Average Temperatures: 90/58
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1921 +404
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 77.2 +2.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.44. Month to Date: .00 -.08
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.39. Month to Date: .02 -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:46 am Sunset: 6:57 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 61 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 77 / 63 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 78 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 18.60 134 9.22 66 13.91 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.47 104 8.17 63 12.96 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 107 7.06 57 12.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 96 7.22 61 11.90 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 104 6.73 59 11.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 95 4.70 47 10.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 3.95 61 6.43 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 167 3.08 61 5.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.89 109 7.16 56 12.73 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 76 12.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.88 13.95
Next report: Saturday, September 21