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September 26, 2019/report


September 26, 2019

Summary: To our south, an upper low is centered near Yuma, Arizona this morning.  To our northwest, upper level high pressure is off the northern California coast.  The flow between these systems is out of the northeast, continuing the off shore flow.  Thus, another summer like day is on tap.  The cloud canopy from the storm near Yuma has spread as far north as Fresno County, but precipitation remains well south.


This will be the last summer like situation we’ll see for quite some time as a developing low in extreme western British Columbia will move southward, centering over Washington State Friday and then parking over western Idaho or eastern Oregon Saturday through Monday night.  the bottom side of this cold system will be well south into southern California.


Models have not changed much on the potential for precipitation.  Rain will be likely over the Sierra Nevada Saturday and at times through at least Monday evening.  Believe it or not, the snow level over the Sierra Nevada may dip as low as 5,000 feet Sunday and Monday.  I still cannot rule out a chance of light showers Saturday through Monday evening over the valley floor, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills or over the eastern flank of the valley north of Kern County.  Sprinkles cannot be ruled out elsewhere.  Most locations will probably receive nothing to just trace amounts from this event, but a few hundredths with a few isolated pockets receiving upwards of a tenth of an inch cannot be ruled out.


Friday will see the beginning of a rapid paced cooling trend.  Initially, the marine layer will deepen Friday, surging through the Delta and other gaps and passes along the coast range, lowering our temperatures by as much as ten degrees.  Another seven to ten degrees of cooling will occur Saturday with highs only peaking into the mid to upper 70s.  the coldest air aloft will be overhead Sunday through Monday.  Readings then may not even reach the mid 70s then.  If cloud cover is heavy enough, upper 60s are not out of the realm of possibility.


Winds will also begin to pick up Friday with periods of gusty winds through Monday.  By Tuesday afternoon, this storm will finally begin to pull off to the east.  Any warming later next week will be slow, however, as most models are now indicating a weaker trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California next Thursday and Friday.  No precipitation will occur in central California, but temperatures will remain below average with perhaps some warming occurring beginning about a week from Saturday.


Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this morning.  Becoming mostly clear this afternoon through Friday.  Partly cloudy Friday night.  variable cloudiness Saturday through Monday night.  there will be a small chance of light showers Saturday through Monday evening, mainly along the east side north of Kern County with the greatest risk along the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Partly cloudy Tuesday.  Mostly clear Tuesday night through Thursday.


Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 93/57/83/54/75 Reedley 94/58/85/55/77 Dinuba 93/56/84/54/76
Porterville 95/57/85/55/78 Lindsay 93/57/85/54/78 Delano 95/62/86/57/78
Bakersfield 96/67/85/61/78 Taft 94/67/86/65/78 Arvin 96/63/86/58/79
Lamont 95/63/85/59/79 Pixley 95/61/85/55/78 Tulare 93/57/84/54/76
Woodlake 93/57/85/54/77 Hanford 95/60/85/55/77 Orosi 93/56/84/53/76


Seven Day Forecast:


Small chance of showers



Slight chance of showers



Partly cloudy



Mostly clear



Mostly clear



Two Week Outlook: October 3 through October 9:  This model is indicating a fairly active pattern will be over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with a westerly flow in the upper atmosphere.  Temperatures should be near average.  The chance for rain continues to be quite low.


September: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California.  Central California comes into the “near average” category.  Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California.  As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.


October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting.  This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once  you get near the Oregon border.  So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.


Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH today.  Later tonight through Friday, winds will pick up out of the west at 10 to 20 MPH, becoming out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH at times Friday afternoon through Sunday.  This will be interspersed with periods of lighter winds.


Rain: We still cannot rule out a chance for light showers beginning Saturday and continuing through Monday.  Light precipitation appears likely over the Sierra Nevada with light snow over the higher elevations.  The best chance of measurable rain, small as it may be, will generally be along the eastern portion of the valley north of Kern County with the greatest risk being along the Sierra Nevada foothills.  This does appear to be the type of event where many locations record nothing to just sprinkles.  It is possible, however, a few locations could pick up a few hundredths to possibly as much as a tenth of an inch.  Dry weather will return Monday night and, assuming models are correct, will continue for the remainder of next week.




Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Kern: : Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/80%

Actual Humidity range September 25, 2019: Delano, 83%/23% Porterville, 89%/17%


Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 90%


ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.42, Parlier 1.27, Blackwell Corner 1.32, Arvin 1.41, Orange Cove 1.39, Porterville 1.28, Delano 1.26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available


Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 72, Blackwell 83, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 81, Delano 70

Record Temperatures: 107/43. Average Temperatures: 88/56

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1971 +412

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for September so far: 76.2 +2.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.40.  Month to Date: .00 -.12

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.82, or +1.37.  Month to Date: .02 -.04

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:51 am  Sunset: 6:48 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:57

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  97 /  59 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  98 /  68 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  98 /  58 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  97 /  56 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 101 /  68 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  96 /  60 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1653 /  98 /  70 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  94 /   M / 0.00 /


Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.60   133    9.22    66    13.98    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.47   103    8.17    63    13.03    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   107    7.06    57    12.44    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    95    7.22    60    11.97    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   103    6.73    59    11.45    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    94    4.70    47    10.06    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.82   121    3.95    61     6.45     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.48   166    3.08    60     5.12     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.89   109    7.16    56    12.78    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   117    9.62    76    12.71    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   113    6.01    43    13.91    13.95

Next report:  Friday, September 27