September 28, 2019
Summary: A rather strong cold front moved through the valley over the past couple of hours and is now draped over the Kern County mountains, moving into southern California. A strong push of northwesterly winds, both at the surface and aloft, has generated upslope clouds over the valley floor and along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, not to mention the Kern County mountains. It’s possible a few sprinkles or isolated light showers could occur today as strong cold air dynamics move in from the northwest.
Temperatures are anywhere from 5 to 7 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, but the coolest air, both at the surface and aloft, is just now moving into northern California and will sweep into central California later today through Monday. Light showers are likely up and down the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and at times through at least Sunday night. in fact, Doppler radar is already showing light showers over the foothills and mountains of Madera, Mariposa, and Fresno Counties. The snow level at this hour is at about 10,000 feet, but as that cold air settles in, the snow level will lower to 5,000 to 6,000 feet. The greatest risk of light showers on the valley floor will be today, but I do want to keep a slight chance in the forecast through Sunday.
The parent low will eventually settle over eastern Oregon and a strong westerly flow will develop, keeping strong upsloping conditions along the Sierra Nevada. Temperatures will continue their nosedive with mid to upper 70s expected this afternoon and readings falling into the upper 60s to the lower 70s Sunday and Monday. Greatest risk of measurable rain will be north of Kern County along the east side, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills, but I must emphasize most locations will reman dry.
By Tuesday, the low will stretch from the southern Canadian plains southwestward to central California, maintaining well below average temperatures. Finally, by Wednesday, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will build in from the west for a warming trend. Even then, however, temperatures may end up marginally below average.
Most models this morning indicate a weak trough will be over the Pacific Northwest and northern California next Thursday and Friday with no active weather, but a minor cooling trend is likely.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a small chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers north of Kern County today. Partly cloudy tonight through Sunday with a slight chance of sprinkles or light showers near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 76/43/70/41/70 | Reedley 77/43/71/41/71 | Dinuba 75/42/69/40/69 |
| Porterville 77/43/70/42/70 | Lindsay 76/42/71/39/70 | Delano 77/43/70/42/70 |
| Bakersfield 74/50/71/46/69 | Taft 78/51/71/50/70 | Arvin 74/48/69/45/71 |
| Lamont 77/47/71/45/71 | Pixley 77/44/70/43/71 | Tulare 75/43/69/40/70 |
| Woodlake 75/43/70/40/70 | Hanford 77/44/71/42/71 | Orosi 75/43/70/39/70 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 41/75 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 44/81 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 47/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 48/84 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 50/82 |
Two Week Outlook: October 5 through October 11: This model is indicating a fairly active pattern will be over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with a westerly flow in the upper atmosphere. Temperatures should be near average. The chance for rain continues to be quite low.
September: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will continue to be out of the northwest at times at 10 to 20 MP tH HHHH with local gusts to 30 MPH possible, especially along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will continue to be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: Light showers are breaking out over the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills from Mariposa County southward to extreme northern Tulare County. Measurable rain on the valley floor is unlikely, but it cannot be ruled out completely. The greatest risk of rain will be through tonight and mainly along the Sierra Nevada foothills. Most locations, however, will remain dry. If rain does happen to occur, only a few hundredths would be expected with a very low chance of a tenth of an inch or so. Dry weather will prevail Sunday night and beyond. In fact, conditions for all of next week beyond Sunday look dry at this time. Even the latest two week model indicates the chance of precipitation remains low.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: : Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 45%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/80%
Actual Humidity range September 27, 2019: Delano, 84%/38% Porterville, 89%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.40, Parlier 1.27, Blackwell Corner 1.43, Arvin 1.44, Orange Cove 1.39, Porterville 1.30, Delano 1.26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 73, Blackwell 83, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 82, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 104/43. Average Temperatures: 87/56
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1996 +425
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 76.3 +2.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.38. Month to Date: .00 -.14
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.36. Month to Date: .02 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:52 am Sunset: 6:45 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:52
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 83 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 85 / 65 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 86 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 86 / 60 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 86 / 65 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 85 / 61 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1648 / 85 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 61 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 18.60 133 9.22 66 14.01 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.47 103 8.17 63 13.06 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 106 7.06 57 12.47 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 95 7.22 60 11.99 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 103 6.73 59 11.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 94 4.70 47 10.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 121 3.95 61 6.46 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 165 3.08 60 5.14 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.89 109 7.16 56 12.80 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 117 9.62 76 12.74 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.92 13.95
Next report: There will be an update this afternoon, Saturday, September 28