October 1, 2019
Summary: Several locations dipped down into the upper 30s last night with a few actually in the mid 30s. As of 6:00am, Reedley was at 34, Navalencia 35, and Sanger 36.
There are two huge weather systems dominating the weather pattern over the lower 48. The first is a strong high center located over Arkansas, driving temperatures to near record levels there. The second is a huge trough of low pressure extending from south central Canada to central California. Cold air aloft is still in place as noted by the freezing level over Oakland overnight at only 6,900 feet. For the third day in a row, temperatures this afternoon will only struggle into the lower 70s.
The trough will finally begin to shift eastward tonight and Wednesday, allowing a weak zone of upper level high pressure to begin to fill in from the west. This will be short lived, however, as another weak trough of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Thursday and Friday. This feature will have no active weather for central California, but it will certainly blunt the warming trend through Friday. Even though temperatures will rise a bit each day, below average temperatures will prevail through the work week.
Finally, over the weekend, a ridge over the eastern Pacific will begin to shift eastward into California, driving temperatures to marginally above average levels over the weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few low 90s by early next week.
Medium range models don’t show anything exiting out there with active weather in the Pacific Northwest through early next week with quiet weather for central California.
Forecast: Clear skies through Friday with a slow warming trend beginning Wednesday. mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/39/78/44/81 | Reedley 72/40/78/45/82 | Dinuba 70/38/78/43/81 |
| Porterville 72/40/78/44/82 | Lindsay 72/39/78/43/81 | Delano 72/42/78/45/83 |
| Bakersfield 72/47/80/52/83 | Taft 73/52/80/57/83 | Arvin 73/42/80/49/84 |
| Lamont 72/43/80/47/83 | Pixley 72/41/78/48/82 | Tulare 71/39/77/44/81 |
| Woodlake 72/39/77/44/81 | Hanford 72/41/78/45/82 | Orosi 72/39/77/43/82 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 48/83 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 50/87 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 52/90 |
Monday
Mostly clear 52/91 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/88 |
Two Week Outlook: October 8 through October 14: The main storm track will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time. A weak zone of high pressure will be over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation will remain low with temperatures close to seasonal averages.
September: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today at 8 to 15 MPH through the early evening hours. Winds tonight will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be no more than 12 MPH afternoons and early evenings and generally at or less than 5 MPH nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: : Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/60%
Actual Humidity range September 30, 2019: Delano, 79%/33% Porterville, 87%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.28, Parlier 1.20, Blackwell Corner 1.41, Arvin 1.35, Orange Cove 1.28, Porterville 1.17, Delano 1.18. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 72, Blackwell 82, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 82, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 101/37. Average Temperatures: 86/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2000 +412
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 75.0 +1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.35. Month to Date: .00 -.17
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.35. Month to Date: .02 -.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:55 am Sunset: 6:41 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:45
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 72 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 74 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 71 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 72 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 71 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 69 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 18.60 132 9.22 66 14.06 14.06
MODESTO T 13.47 103 8.17 62 13.11 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 106 7.06 56 12.50 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 95 7.22 60 12.02 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 103 6.73 59 11.50 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 94 4.70 47 10.10 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 121 3.95 61 6.47 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 164 3.08 60 5.17 5.18
SALINAS 0.05 13.95 109 7.16 56 12.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 116 9.62 75 12.78 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 112 6.01 43 13.95 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, October 2