October 2, 2019
Summary: Over the past 24 hours, the freezing level has risen from 6,900 feet to 10,700 feet. That reading was taken by balloon sounding over Oakland. The balloon sounding over Vandenberg captured the freezing level at 14,800 feet. Obviously, warmer air is moving in aloft. Some mountain stations are reflecting this. At Blue Canyon at 5,200 feet it is 12 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Above the Ridge Route at Sandberg, 6 degrees of warming is noted.
A flat zone of upper level high pressure is now replacing the strong low which brought such autumn like conditions the past few days. Even so, afternoon highs will remain below average. A new trough of low pressure is digging southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and will stretch from British Columbia to central California Thursday and Friday. A dry cold front will move down the valley, lowering temperatures back into the upper 70s.
That will quickly change over the weekend and into next week as models now show a relatively strong high pressure system building at the upper levels of the atmosphere along the west coast, stretching from northern Mexico to British Columbia. Warmer locations may marginally eclipse the 90 degree mark Sunday and Monday with slight cooling next Tuesday and Wednesday as the high flattens out due to yet another weak trough of low pressure passing to our north. It is safe to say the pattern will be quiet for the next week to ten days with no chance of precipitation.
Forecast: Clear skies through Saturday. clear to mostly clear Saturday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 78/44/81/46/77 | Reedley 79/43/81/44/78 | Dinuba 77/42/80/45/77 |
| Porterville 79/43/82/45/79 | Lindsay 78/41/81/44/78 | Delano 79/45/82/46/78 |
| Bakersfield 80/50/82/53/79 | Taft 80/55/82/56/77 | Arvin 81/45/82/47/79 |
| Lamont 81/47/82/49/78 | Pixley 79/43/81/45/78 | Tulare 77/43/80/44/77 |
| Woodlake 78/44/81/45/78 | Hanford 79/44/82/45/77 | Orosi 78/43/81/45/78 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 46/87 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 51/91 |
Monday
Mostly clear 52/90 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 51/87 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 50/84 |
Two Week Outlook: October 9 through October 15: The main storm track will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time. A weak zone of high pressure will be over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation will remain low with temperatures close to seasonal averages.
September: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds through Saturday will be variable in nature and generally at or less than 10 MPH afternoons and evenings and less than 5 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm condition.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: : Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/55%
Actual Humidity range October 1, 2019: Delano, 82%/27% Porterville, 89%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.19, Parlier 1.17, Blackwell Corner 1.37, Arvin 1.31, Orange Cove 1.24, Porterville 1.13, Delano 1.14. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 65, Blackwell 77, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 75, Delano 63
Record Temperatures: 101/40. Average Temperatures: 86/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2000 +407
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 61.0 -9.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.01. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or +0.00. Month to Date: .00 -.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:56 am Sunset: 6:40 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 72 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 74 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 72 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 72 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 70 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 69 / 49 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 72 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 13.95
Next report: Thursday, October 3