October 10, 2019
Summary: A dry cold front moved through central California roughly 12 hours ago. A cooler air mass has spread in from the north. Readings this morning are generally 4 to 9 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. A potent wintertime storm is centered over Wyoming this morning and will dump into the Midwest tonight and Friday. Behind this system, a strong surface high is already taking shape. A strong off shore flow is the result. To give you an idea of pressure differences, the current barometric reading at Salt Lake City is 30.24 inches of mercury while at Fresno it’s 29.96.
Strong gusty off shore winds will buffet the high Sierra and the Kern County mountains. Localized gusty easterly winds could affect portions of the Kern County region of the valley, especially near the base of the mountains southeast of Bakersfield. These winds will also result in very low dew points in the south valley. Even further north, the air mass will be quite dry, allowing for some chilly overnight temperatures.
At the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure is building eastward into California. This will nudge temperatures upward to near seasonal levels Friday and marginally above average over the weekend. The next trough of low pressure is much weaker and will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California late Sunday and Monday with no active weather. In fact, no rain is in sight at this time, although some models are pointing towards the possibility of a cold low developing somewhere over the west around the 20th or 21st.
Forecast: Clear skies today. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight. Mostly clear Friday and on through Thursday of next week with high clouds at times possible.
Short Term:
Madera 76/40/80/42/82 | Reedley 77/41/80/42/81 | Dinuba 75/39/79/41/80 |
Porterville 78/40/81/42/81 | Lindsay 77/39/81/42/82 | Delano 79/45/80/45/82 |
Bakersfield 80/49/81/46/82 | Taft 78/54/80/50/81 | Arvin 79/48/80/44/82 |
Lamont 80/48/81/44/82 | Pixley 78/41/80/43/81 | Tulare 76/39/79/42/80 |
Woodlake 77/41/80/42/81 | Hanford 78/42/80/44/81 | Orosi 77/39/80/42/81 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Sunday
Mostly clear 45/85 |
Monday
Mostly clear 48/86 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 49/85 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 48/82 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 47/77 |
Two Week Outlook: October 17 through October 23: This model shows the possibility of a significant low developing over the western states, resulting in temperatures dropping to near average. It’s much too early to tell, but this far out the chance of precipitation looks to be somewhat elevated.
September: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: North of Kern County, winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and variable in nature. In Kern County, especially along the eastern and southeastern rims of the valley, gusty east to southeast winds are possible at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Even as far north as Bakersfield, winds out of the southeast are possible at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, lasting into Friday morning. Winds Friday afternoon through Sunday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Kern: : Upper teens to the lower 20s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/50% at Hanford. Bakersfield 10%/25%
Actual Humidity range October 9, 2019: Delano, 74%/27% Porterville, 84%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.26, Parlier 1.10, Blackwell Corner 1.19, Arvin 1.16, Orange Cove 1.19, Porterville 1.08, Delano 1.08. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 66, Blackwell 76, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 75, Delano 65
Record Temperatures: 99/42. Average Temperatures: 82/53
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1016 +393
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 65.2 -2.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.11. Month to Date: .00 -.11
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.05. Month to Date: .00 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03am Sunset: 6:28 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:28
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 77 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 78 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 49 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1636 / 77 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 77 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 82 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 75 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 985 0.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 8 0.13 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.09 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.08 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 91 0.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 80 0.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 500 0.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 558 0.12 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 27 0.11 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 389 0.09 13.95
Next report: Friday, October 11