October 14, 2019
Summary: This upcoming week will simply be a matter of temperature forecasting as no active weather is anticipated for central California. Currently, a ridge of upper level high pressure is just off the California coast. It extends northward into British Columbia. A little benign upper low is over southeast California and is moving quickly eastward. Temperatures will cool perhaps a degree or two today as freezing levels have dropped a tad due to that weak low with readings just about right at seasonal average. Low to mid 80s will be widespread Tuesday through Wednesday as the high shifts eastward into California.
The next trough of low pressure will move from the eastern Pacific, stretching from western Canada to central California. The portion of the trough affecting our region will be inactive, however a dry cold front will move through Thursday with the possibility of gusty winds below some of the passes along the west side of the valley. The main impact will be a drop in temperatures as most locations back off into the mid 70s and remain in that range through the weekend as the trough will only slowly move into the interior west.
Most modeling information this morning indicates a strong ridge will build over and along the west coast beginning Monday and lasting for much of next week. At the surface, high pressure will also build over the Great Basin, generating an off shore flow. The bottom line is that next week will be warmer with a return to low humidity.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/41/83/43/83 | Reedley 82/40/84/43/84 | Dinuba 80/40/83/41/83 |
| Porterville 82/41/83/42/83 | Lindsay 81/39/84/42/83 | Delano 82/44/84/45/83 |
| Bakersfield 83/51/83/56/84 | Taft 82/55/83/58/84 | Arvin 83/45/83/47/85 |
| Lamont 83/50/83/53/85 | Pixley 82/42/83/44/83 | Tulare 81/42/83/43/83 |
| Woodlake 80/40/84/42/83 | Hanford 81/42/83/43/83 | Orosi 80/39/83/42/83 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 45/77 |
Friday
Mostly clear 43/75 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 42/73 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 41/73 |
Monday
Mostly clear 41/75 |
Two Week Outlook: October 22 through October 27: If this model has an credence, the chance for rain during this time frame will be just about nil as a strong ridge cover most of the west and off shore. Temperatures will average above seasonal norms.
October: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Wednesday. during the night and morning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday will be out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/55%
Actual Humidity range October 13, 2019: Delano, 71%/15% Porterville, 91%/12%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.21, Parlier 1.04, Blackwell Corner 1.22, Arvin 1.28, Orange Cove 1.15, Porterville 1.03, Delano 1.06. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 67, Blackwell 75, Arvin, 68, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 74, Delano 64
Record Temperatures: 100/41. Average Temperatures: 81/51
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2016 +384
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 63.8 -3.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.16. Month to Date: .00 -.16
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.07. Month to Date: .00 -.07
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:04 Sunset: 6:25 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:24
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 82 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 84 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 86 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 84 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 45 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 83 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 610 0.21 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 5 0.20 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.16 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.16 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 63 0.16 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 40 0.10 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 364 0.11 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 372 0.18 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 18 0.17 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 250 0.14 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, October 15