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Forecast

October 19, 2019/report

October 19, 2019

Summary: Clouds are increasing over north central California this morning ahead of a fast moving trough of low pressure which has spread precipitation over the Pacific Northwest.  Light showers are spreading into the northern one-fourth of the Golden State.  This system will spawn yet another dry, cold frontal passage tonight and early Sunday along with increasing clouds.  This means another 48 hours of mild weather is on tap.  Skies will be slow to clear Sunday, particularly along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley as the air is lifted by the southern Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains, resulting in upslope clouds.  High temperatures Sunday, especially in the south valley, will in part be determined by how quickly the clouds mix out as an off shore flow begins to develop Sunday night and Monday behind the front.  Surface high pressure will develop over the Great Basin Monday, continuing through midweek.

 

At the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin to shift inland over California Monday for the beginning of a significant warming trend.  This high will bring temperatures from the lower 70s today and Sunday into the mid 80s Tuesday.  Most models indicate the center of the high will be just off the northern California coast by Wednesday.  they show a sharp ridge building from there into the Pacific Northwest Thursday through Saturday, resulting in a rather robust off shore flow for strong Santa Ana winds in southern California and a very dry air mass in central California.  Models going out into the first couple of days of November show dry weather as generally high pressure will generally control the western one-third of the U.S.

 

Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy today.  Mostly cloudy tonight and Sunday morning.  Gradual clearing from the northwest Sunday afternoon.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday with a warming trend.  Mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday with above average temperatures.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 72/44/73/44/79 Reedley 73/43/73/45/78 Dinuba 72/42/73/44/77
Porterville 74/48/73/48/78 Lindsay 74/44/73/43/79 Delano 74/46/73/46/79
Bakersfield 74/52/73/53/80 Taft 72/55/73/55/79 Arvin 74/47/73/49/80
Lamont 73/48/73/49/81 Pixley 73/46/73/48/80 Tulare 72/44/73/45/77
Woodlake 73/43/73/44/78 Hanford 73/46/73/47/78 Orosi 73/42/73/44/77

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

47/83

Wednesday

Mostly clear

48/85

Thursday

Mostly clear

48/86

Friday

Mostly clear

46/80

Saturday

Mostly clear

47/82

 

Two Week Outlook: October 26 through November 1:  This model shows most of the lower 48 with below average temperatures.  The exception is California which will be under the influence of high pressure just off shore for above average temperatures.  The chance of rain during this period is slim to none.

 

October: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California.  Central California comes into the “near average” category.  Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California.  As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.

 

October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting.  This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once  you get near the Oregon border.  So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH today, becoming out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH tonight and Sunday with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor.  Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning  hours.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 40%/90%

Actual Humidity range October 18, 2019: Delano, 84%/33% Porterville, 88%/34%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 50%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 40%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.05, Parlier .92, Blackwell Corner 1.05, Arvin 1.09, Orange Cove 1.01, Porterville .92, Delano .94. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 64, Blackwell 73, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 71, Delano 62

Record Temperatures: 92/30. Average Temperatures: 78/49

Heating Degree Days this Season: 42 +7

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for October so far: 63.7 -2.5

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.27.  Month to Date: .00 -.27

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  0.00, or -.12.  Month to Date: .00 -.12

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:11  Sunset: 6:16 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:07

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  74 /  55 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  75 /  58 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  77 /  54 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  77 /  53 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1706 /  74 /  54 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  76 /  53 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1651 /  74 /  53 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  75 /  48 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1651 /  71 /  58 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  73 /   M / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    1.28   400     0.32    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.01     3     0.29    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.26    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.27    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.10    40     0.25    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00       T     0    0.04    25     0.16    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.11     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.40   267     0.15     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0    0.67   268     0.25    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.03    12     0.25    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.35   159     0.22    13.95

Next report:  Monday, October 21