October 25, 2019
Summary: Upper level high pressure is centered just west of San Francisco again this morning and covers the western one-fourth of the U.S. The air aloft is very warm for this time of year as the sounding both above Vandenberg and Oakland indicate a freezing level of 16,000 feet. At the surface, winds are still off shore, although not quite as strong. They will continue to weaken during the course of the day.
With the off shore flow and a warm bubble of subsiding air, temperatures will continue to be a good 10 plus degrees above average through Saturday. a significant change will occur Saturday night and Sunday as the upper high shifts further west over the Pacific Ocean then builds a big ridge as far north as southern Alaska. This will allow a cold trough of low pressure to dig southward from western Canada into the interior western U.S. California will be on the far western edge of this trough.
A dry cold front will move through central California early Sunday, issuing in a much cooler air mass. This air mass will also be extremely dry with dew points falling into the 30s. It’s possible colder locations may very well dip into the low to mid 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings, assuming winds die off and skies remain clear. Cloud cover won’t be too much of a factor, however some upslope clouds against the Sierra Nevada foothills and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains will be possible Sunday into Monday.
After Monday, a large ridge of high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific and will begin to bulge into the western U.S., forcing the low pressure trough into the central part of the country. Temperatures for much of next week will range in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in the 30d to the lower 40s.
There is no medium range forecast giving any hope of precipitation. One little wildcard will be the possible formation of a cut off low off the southern California coast beginning next Tuesday. It will just meander out there for several days. The impact, if any, on central California will be negligible.
Forecast: Clear skies with warm afternoons through Saturday. mostly clear Saturday night through Monday morning with some clouds developing along the eastern and southern foothills. Much cooler and locally breezy Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 86/48/83/46/72 | Reedley 87/49/84/47/72 | Dinuba 85/48/83/46/71 |
| Porterville 87/48/84/47/73 | Lindsay 86/47/85/46/73 | Delano 87/51/84/48/74 |
| Bakersfield 88/58/86/55/74 | Taft 86/61/85/58/74 | Arvin 89/55/85/51/75 |
| Lamont 88/53/85/50/74 | Pixley 87/50/85/48/73 | Tulare 85/48/84/46/72 |
| Woodlake 86/48/85/46/72 | Hanford 87/51/84/49/72 | Orosi 85/47/84/46/72 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 36/72 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 35/77 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 38/77 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 39/76 |
Friday
Mostly clear 40/77 |
Two Week Outlook: October 31 through November 6: This model shows a massive area of cold low pressure east of the Rockies where temperatures will be below seasonal average. California is about the only exception to this. An off shore flow will nudge temperatures above average. The chance of precipitation appears to be very low.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through Saturday evening with periods of near calm conditions. Winds late Saturday night through Sunday evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH at times with gusts to 25 MPH possible, mainly in Madera and Kings Counties and western Fresno County. Winds will diminish Sunday night with generally light winds Monday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/70% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/50%
Actual Humidity range October 24, 2019: Delano, 87%/27% Porterville, 92%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .97, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corner .93, Arvin .98, Orange Cove .89, Porterville .81, Delano .82. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 63, Blackwell 72, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 70, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 91/36. Average Temperatures: 75/47
Heating Degree Days this Season: 56 -6
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 63.7 -1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.41. Month to Date: .00 -.41
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.18. Month to Date: .00 -.18
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:17 Sunset: 6:09 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:55
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 86 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1649 / 88 / 57 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / 66 / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 242 0.53 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 2 0.45 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.46 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 24 0.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 14 0.28 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.19 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 190 0.21 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 172 0.39 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 8 0.40 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 95 0.37 13.95
Next report: Saturday, October 26