Summary: For the second morning in a row, there are some fascinating extremes. Not in wind this time, but in temperatures. For example, in Kern County, Maricopa and Edison, as of 6:00am, were reporting temperatures in the mid 50s. North of Kern County, however, it’s cold. Navalencia has dropped to 28 degrees, Fowler 29, and Rio Bravo was reporting a temperature of 25. The latter sounds suspect, but considering the extremely low dew points, I wouldn’t completely rule that out.
Pressure differences from surface high pressure over the Great Basin and off shore southern California are relaxing. Winds have died off on the valley floor, but are still somewhat gusty over the Kern County mountains where dew points are between 10 and 20 degrees below 0. Over portions of the valley region of Kern County, dew points are still near 0 in some locations but will begin to recover as the day wears on. Throughout the valley, though, dew points will remain very low over the next few days, allowing local areas of frost as colder locations, as in this morning, will drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. It’s hard to believe it’s still October with widespread low to mid 30s.
Beginning Friday, daytime highs will begin to move closer to seasonal averages, but overnight lows will remain in the 30s due to the dry air mass now ensconced on the valley floor.
Overall, the broad picture shows upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western one-fourth of the U.S. with a dry north/northwest flow aloft. Several hundred miles off shore, there is a cut off low, but it’s too far off shore and too weak to be of concern.
Over the next seven to eight days, models show little change with that blocking pattern of upper level high pressure off shore. Medium range models are still showing an attempt to develop a westerly flow about the 8 or 9, possibly bringing precipitation to at least northern California. It will be several days before we have a more definitive grip on just what Mother Nature has in store.
Forecast: Clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/30/72/33/75 | Reedley 71/31/73/32/75 | Dinuba 70/29/72/31/75 |
| Porterville 71/32/73/33/76 | Lindsay 71/30/73/32/75 | Delano 72/34/74/35/76 |
| Bakersfield 72/37/74/39/77 | Taft 70/44/74/46/77 | Arvin 73/34/75/35/78 |
| Lamont 72/35/74/38/77 | Pixley 72/32/73/34/74 | Tulare 70/30/73/31/75 |
| Woodlake 70/31/73/32/75 | Hanford 71/32/73/33/76 | Orosi 71/29/73/31/74 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 37/77 |
Monday
Mostly clear 38/80 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 40/78 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 39/77 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 40/76 |
Two Week Outlook: November 7 through November 13: This model shows more of a zonal or westerly flow across the Pacific and into north America. Unfortunately, the storm track remains to our north, so the chance of precipitation will remain low. Temperatures will run at least marginally above seasonal averages.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 20s. Kern: Teens to lower 20s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/70% at Hanford. Bakersfield 10%/40%
Actual Humidity range October 30, 2019: Delano, 77%/18% Porterville, 91%/14%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .97, Parlier .78, Blackwell Corner .96, Arvin 1.14, Orange Cove .88, Porterville .77, Delano .78. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 63, Blackwell 71, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 69, Delano 61
Record Temperatures: 90/32. Average Temperatures: 72/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 97 -1
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 62.7 -1.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.60. Month to Date: .00 -.60
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.28. Month to Date: .00 -.28
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:22 Sunset: 6:02 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 68 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 69 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 69 / 49 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 166 0.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 2 0.64 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.75 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.81 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 17 0.60 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 9 0.47 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.28 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 138 0.29 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 122 0.55 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 5 0.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 62 0.56 13.95
Next report: Friday, November 1