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Forecast

November 2, 2019/report

November 2, 2019

Summary: Pressure continues to be higher over the interior west than off shore southern California.  The latest reading in Salt Lake City was 30.45 while at LAX the pressure was 30.06.  That is a significant difference in pressure, however the off shore flow itself is fairly week due to the fact winds aloft are out of the northwest.  If these winds were aligned, the off shore flow would be considerably stronger.

 

The air mass on the valley floor remains very dry with many locations at or slightly below freezing.  Dew points will slowly begin to recover over the next couple of days but even so, the air mass will remain very dry both at ground level and aloft.  This will result in above average daytime temperatures but below average overnight lows.  Currently, we have a semi desert-like climate.

 

In the big picture, upper level high pressure remains anchored over the eastern Pacific and the western one-fourth of the U.S. while a weak upper low is parked a few hundred miles west of San Diego.  That feature is throwing a few high clouds over southern California, but otherwise it’s a non-feature.

 

The high at the upper levels of the atmosphere will remain through Thursday with a ridge extending into the Pacific Northwest.  By next Friday, the high will flatten out, possibly allowing the storm track back into Washington and Oregon, but for now, even though there is some variance between models, they all agree on a dry pattern for the foreseeable future.  Even the new two week model going out through the 15th indicates there’s very little chance of precipitation.

 

Forecast: Clear skies through Tuesday.  Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 76/33/77/34/77 Reedley 75/33/77/35/77 Dinuba 74/32/76/33/77
Porterville 78/33/78/35/78 Lindsay 76/32/77/35/77 Delano 78/34/78/35/78
Bakersfield 78/43/78/45/80 Taft 77/51/78/42/78 Arvin 79/35/79/37/80
Lamont 79/35/79/37/80 Pixley 76/32/77/34/78 Tulare 75/31/76/35/77
Woodlake 77/33/78/36/78 Hanford 75/34/77/35/78 Orosi 75/32/77/34/78

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

38/80

Wednesday

Mostly clear

39/81

Thursday

Mostly clear

40/81

Friday

Mostly clear

44/77

Saturday

Mostly clear

44/78

 

Two Week Outlook: November 9 through November 15:  This  model does not give much hope for precipitation through mid November.  Upper level  high pressure will be dominant over the eastern Pacific and the western third of the U.S. for above average temperatures.

 

November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California.  This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.

 

December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S.  This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

Frost Discussion: On the average, dew points are one to three degrees higher than 24 hours ago as are temperatures.  Still, a number of locations are at or slightly below freezing.  The coldest I could find as of 6:00am was 30 at McFarland, Fowler, and Ivanhoe.  Several other locations are at 31 and 32.  Even though dew points are slowly creeping up, the air mass remains very dry.  While daytime highs will begin to push 80 at many locations over the next few days, coldest overnight lows tonight will still dip to slightly below freezing.  I do think it’s possible more locations will be slightly above freezing tonight due to rising dew points.

Most locations will be above freezing Monday and Tuesday with the exception of riverbottom and sink hole type locations.  By Thursday or Friday, winds aloft will become westerly, ending the off shore flow.  Theoretically, this would push dew points into the 40s for above freezing conditions, but for now I want to take a wait and see attitude.  At this time, there’s nothing on models pointing to a cold weather episode.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

33

Porterville

33

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

33

Strathmore

32

McFarland

31

Ducor

34

Tea Pot Dome

33

Lindsay

31

Exeter

32

Famoso

AF

Madera

33

Belridge

32

Delano

AF

North Bakersfield

AF

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

33

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root creek

31

Venice Hill

33

Rosedale

AF

Jasmine

32

Arvin

AF

Lamont

AF

Plainview

32

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

AF

Holland Creek

AF

Tivy Valley AF
Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

AF

AF=Above Freezing                

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 20s to the lower 30s.  Kern: Mid to upper 20s.  Humidity values ranging from 20%/80% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 15%/50%

Actual Humidity range November 1, 2019: Delano, 72%/16% Porterville, 90%/13%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .91, Parlier .74, Blackwell Corner .92, Arvin 1.09, Orange Cove .84, Porterville .72, Delano .73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.  

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 57, Blackwell 65, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 62, Delano 54

Record Temperatures: 88/34. Average Temperatures: 71/45

Heating Degree Days this Season: 123 +10

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for November so far: 52.5 -5.5

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average:  

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.66.  Month to Date: .00 -.03

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  0.00, or -.32.  Month to Date: .00 -.02

Water year season is from October 1st through September. 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 9,  Parlier 12,  Arvin 11, Shafter 11, Stratford 9, Lindcove 11, Porterville 13,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:24  Sunset: 5:00 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:36

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  73 /  35 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  74 /  43 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  74 /  33 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  73 /  31 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  75 /  40 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  73 /  34 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  74 /  34 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1649 /  74 /  35 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  73 /  38 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    1.28   147     0.87    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.01     1     0.72    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.86    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.93    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.10    15     0.66    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.04     7     0.55    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.32     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.40   125     0.32     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0    0.67   110     0.61    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.03     5     0.65    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.35    55     0.64    13.95

Next report:  Saturday, November 2/pm