November 2, 2019
Summary: Pressure continues to be higher over the interior west than off shore southern California. The latest reading in Salt Lake City was 30.45 while at LAX the pressure was 30.06. That is a significant difference in pressure, however the off shore flow itself is fairly week due to the fact winds aloft are out of the northwest. If these winds were aligned, the off shore flow would be considerably stronger.
The air mass on the valley floor remains very dry with many locations at or slightly below freezing. Dew points will slowly begin to recover over the next couple of days but even so, the air mass will remain very dry both at ground level and aloft. This will result in above average daytime temperatures but below average overnight lows. Currently, we have a semi desert-like climate.
In the big picture, upper level high pressure remains anchored over the eastern Pacific and the western one-fourth of the U.S. while a weak upper low is parked a few hundred miles west of San Diego. That feature is throwing a few high clouds over southern California, but otherwise it’s a non-feature.
The high at the upper levels of the atmosphere will remain through Thursday with a ridge extending into the Pacific Northwest. By next Friday, the high will flatten out, possibly allowing the storm track back into Washington and Oregon, but for now, even though there is some variance between models, they all agree on a dry pattern for the foreseeable future. Even the new two week model going out through the 15th indicates there’s very little chance of precipitation.
Forecast: Clear skies through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 76/33/77/34/77 | Reedley 75/33/77/35/77 | Dinuba 74/32/76/33/77 |
Porterville 78/33/78/35/78 | Lindsay 76/32/77/35/77 | Delano 78/34/78/35/78 |
Bakersfield 78/43/78/45/80 | Taft 77/51/78/42/78 | Arvin 79/35/79/37/80 |
Lamont 79/35/79/37/80 | Pixley 76/32/77/34/78 | Tulare 75/31/76/35/77 |
Woodlake 77/33/78/36/78 | Hanford 75/34/77/35/78 | Orosi 75/32/77/34/78 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
Mostly clear 38/80 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 39/81 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 40/81 |
Friday
Mostly clear 44/77 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 44/78 |
Two Week Outlook: November 9 through November 15: This model does not give much hope for precipitation through mid November. Upper level high pressure will be dominant over the eastern Pacific and the western third of the U.S. for above average temperatures.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: On the average, dew points are one to three degrees higher than 24 hours ago as are temperatures. Still, a number of locations are at or slightly below freezing. The coldest I could find as of 6:00am was 30 at McFarland, Fowler, and Ivanhoe. Several other locations are at 31 and 32. Even though dew points are slowly creeping up, the air mass remains very dry. While daytime highs will begin to push 80 at many locations over the next few days, coldest overnight lows tonight will still dip to slightly below freezing. I do think it’s possible more locations will be slightly above freezing tonight due to rising dew points.
Most locations will be above freezing Monday and Tuesday with the exception of riverbottom and sink hole type locations. By Thursday or Friday, winds aloft will become westerly, ending the off shore flow. Theoretically, this would push dew points into the 40s for above freezing conditions, but for now I want to take a wait and see attitude. At this time, there’s nothing on models pointing to a cold weather episode.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
33 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
33 |
Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
33 |
Belridge
32 |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
Orange Cove
33 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
Root creek
31 |
Venice Hill
33 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
32 |
Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley AF |
Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 20s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/50%
Actual Humidity range November 1, 2019: Delano, 72%/16% Porterville, 90%/13%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .91, Parlier .74, Blackwell Corner .92, Arvin 1.09, Orange Cove .84, Porterville .72, Delano .73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 57, Blackwell 65, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 62, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 88/34. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 123 +10
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 52.5 -5.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.66. Month to Date: .00 -.03
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.32. Month to Date: .00 -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 9, Parlier 12, Arvin 11, Shafter 11, Stratford 9, Lindcove 11, Porterville 13,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:24 Sunset: 5:00 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:36
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 74 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 75 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 73 / 34 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 74 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 74 / 35 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 147 0.87 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 1 0.72 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 15 0.66 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 7 0.55 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.32 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 125 0.32 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 110 0.61 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 5 0.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 55 0.64 13.95
Next report: Saturday, November 2/pm