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Forecast

November 3, 2019/report

November 3, 2019

Summary: Upper level high pressure remains in place over the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western one-fourth of the U.S.  One exception is a benign upper low centered west of San Diego.  This system has flung some high clouds over southern California.  Of  interest also are a few showers that developed over No Man’s Land in the vast desert regions of San Bernardino County.  This little low will remain stationary through Monday, possibly moving some high clouds over the Kern County portion of the valley.  At the surface, a very weak off shore flow continues.  The combination of upper level high pressure aloft and the ongoing off shore flow will drive temperatures well above average during the afternoon hours.  However, with the very dry air mass in place, strong radiational cooling will continue during the overnight hours, allowing temperatures to drop into the 30s.

 

By Thursday night and Friday, the high will flatten out, allowing a westerly flow to break through.  This should allow precipitation back into the Pacific Northwest, but all the models point to dry weather over California for at least the next week and more than likely well beyond.  In fact, by a week from Monday, the high is projected to build further north again, creating a very  effective blockade, driving storms into British Columbia.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, mainly in Kern County, skies will remain clear through Monday.  Expect mostly clear skies to continue Monday night through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 77/35/78/36/79 Reedley 78/34/79/36/79 Dinuba 76/33/78/34/78
Porterville 78/34/79/36/80 Lindsay 76/33/78/34/79 Delano 78/35/80/37/80
Bakersfield 79/50/80/51/81 Taft 77/52/80/53/81 Arvin 79/37/80/38/81
Lamont 79/38/81/40/81 Pixley 77/33/78/35/79 Tulare 76/33/77/36/78
Woodlake 77/34/78/35/79 Hanford 77/35/78/36/79 Orosi 77/32/78/34/79

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Mostly clear

38/80

Thursday

Mostly clear

40/81

Friday

Mostly clear

40/81

Saturday

Mostly clear

43/75

Sunday

Mostly clear

41/76

 

Two Week Outlook: November 9 through November 15:  This model does not give much hope for precipitation through mid November.  Upper level high pressure will be dominant over the eastern Pacific and the western third of the U.S. for above average temperatures.

 

November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California.  This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.

 

December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S.  This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

Frost Discussion: As of 6:30am, the coldest frost stations were at 32 degrees at east Clovis, Fowler, Navalencia, west Porterville, and Terra Bella.  All other locations were between 33 and 37.  Temperatures this morning are 1 to 5 degrees higher than yesterday at this time while dew points are 2 to 6 degrees above yesterday’s readings.  I feel safe in forecasting above freezing conditions at all locations with the possible exception of low lying riverbottom and similar terrain which may lower to near 32 degrees for short durations.  With upper level high pressure and a weak off shore surface flow, daytime highs will be near 80 degrees for much of the week in warmer locations.  This will drag overnight lows up a bit, despite the dry air mass.  With that in mind, expect above freezing conditions each night through the week but only just above in the coldest locations.  Nothing on medium range models to suggest a cold weather pattern on the horizon.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above 32 tonight.

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 30s.  Kern: Low to mid 30s.  Humidity values ranging from 20%/85% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 20%/55%

Actual Humidity range November 2, 2019: Delano, 73%/20% Porterville, 91%/17%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .89, Parlier .72, Blackwell Corner .90, Arvin 1.06, Orange Cove .82, Porterville .71, Delano .71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.  

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 57, Blackwell 65, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 62, Delano 54

Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 71/44

Heating Degree Days this Season: 133 +12

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for November so far: 53.5 -4.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average:  

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.69.  Month to Date: .00 -.06

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  0.00, or -.33.  Month to Date: .00 -.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September. 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 17,  Parlier 23,  Arvin 18, Shafter 20, Stratford 17, Delano 21, Lindcove 20, Porterville 25,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:25  Sunset: 4:59 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:35

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  74 /  37 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  75 /  43 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  77 /  32 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  77 /  29 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  75 /  42 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  75 /  35 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  76 /  34 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1651 /  77 /  38 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    1.28   139     0.92    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.01     1     0.75    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.91    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.98    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.10    14     0.69    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.04     7     0.60    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.33     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.40   121     0.33     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0    0.67   105     0.64    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.03     4     0.69    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.35    52     0.67    13.95

Next report:  Monday, November 3