November 18, 2019
Summary: Today will be the warmest day we will see until probably some day next spring. A zone of upper level high pressure stretches from several hundred miles off shore across California and into the Desert Southwest. Temperatures this afternoon at the warmest locations will be near 80, and may actually climb into the lower 80s, especially in Kern County. The combination of the upper high and a cutoff low located off the northern Baja coastline is resulting in a weak easterly flow and is causing downslope heating.
Rapid changes are afoot, however, as a developing low off the Washington coast dives southward into northern and central California Tuesday and Tuesday night. showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada later Tuesday afternoon with the risk of showers increasing over the valley floor Tuesday night. while all of that’s occurring, the low off the Baja coast will be absorbed towards the northeast into southern California and Arizona where locally heavy rain is possible over southeast California and Arizona.
The northern system will be parked somewhere near Santa Barbara Sunday morning with a surface low developing over southern Nevada. This will put central California in kind of an oddball position as a reverse rainshadow develops along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. The greatest risk for any significant precipitation will be along the far east side of the valley, especially in Tulare County, and over the valley portion of Kern County where as much as .25 is possible from Tuesday night through Thursday morning with locally higher amounts.
Models seem to be indicating a quicker time frame than previously projected so the chance of showers will begin to wind down Thursday morning with dry weather beginning Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will drop a good 20 degrees by Wednesday compared to today’s readings. Readings Wednesday will only top out in the lower 60s in the warmer locations. Gusty winds will also be prevalent Tuesday afternoon and for a time Wednesday.
By Friday, the center of circulation will have shifted into the vicinity of the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest, allowing weak high pressure to build in from the west. Weak high pressure will reside over California this coming weekend with a new low developing several hundred miles off shore. The main challenge for the coming weekend will be possible areas of fog as anticipated moisture will be prevalent on the valley floor. Models for Monday and Tuesday of next week vary a great deal, but it’s possible a new, colder low may drop rapidly southward into the interior west, briefly creating a northerly flow into California along with a somewhat colder airmass. We could use the word “frost” in the forecast early next week, although that’s very tentative due to those earlier mentioned model differences. I must emphasize, however, no critical temperatures are seen.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight. increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a slight chance of showers late Tuesday afternoon. The chance of showers will increase Tuesday night, becoming likely Wednesday and Wednesday night. a chance of showers Thursday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Clearing Friday afternoon. Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Monday.
Short Term:
Madera 79/43/72/46/58 | Reedley 78/41/72/46/59 | Dinuba 77/41/72/45/58 |
Porterville 79/42/72/47/59 | Lindsay 79/41/73/46/60 | Delano 80/44/72/47/60 |
Bakersfield 80/50/74/49/58 | Taft 80/53/74/48/59 | Arvin 81/47/75/48/57 |
Lamont 81/47/74/48/57 | Pixley 79/42/72/46/59 | Tulare 77/41/72/44/57 |
Woodlake 78/41/72/45/58 | Hanford 79/43/72/47/59 | Orosi 78/41/72/46/58 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Thursday
AM showers possible 43/63 |
Friday
AM clouds/PM sun 40/67 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 39/66 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 39/68 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 37/61 |
Two Week Outlook: November 25 through December 1: This model is actually indicating there’s an above average chance of precipitation, especially in very late November and early December. Temperatures should run near average.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will generally be at or less than 6 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday afternoon and night will initially be out of the west then northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts. Winds Wednesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be variable to around 15 MPH.
Rain: A complex pattern is already evolving with the first of two players being in the form of a developing low off the Washington coast. It will rapidly dive southward into northern and central California Tuesday. While that’s occurring, a cut off low off the northern Baja coast will be drawn northeastward, spreading showers and thunderstorms over southern California. This system has tropical stuff involved now, meaning it may result in a significant precipitation event, mainly over southeast California and Arizona. By Wednesday morning, the center of the relatively cold low will be somewhere near Kern County while off shore a large ridge will build off the Pacific coast northeastward into northwest Canada. Showers will be likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night with the greatest risk of anything significant being along the Sierra Nevada foothills, especially in Tulare County, and over the valley portion of Kern County where .25 could be tallied with locally more. Most other locations north of Kern County should pick up less than .10. As the low moves into southeast California Wednesday night and Thursday, the flow aloft will be out of the east, creating a reverse rain shadow. Typically, we see rain shadows along the west side due to the Coast Range. This will be the complete opposite as the eastward flow will create a rain shadow over the east side with the exception being right along the foothills. That will greatly diminish the chance of showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning with dry weather Thursday afternoon through the weekend and well into next week.
I do want, however, to watch a potential pattern for Monday and Tuesday of next week as it appears a storm system will dive into the Great Basin. For now, it appears precip will remain to our east.
Frost Discussion: Above freezing conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend. I do want to watch the pattern for Monday and Tuesday of next week. It’s possible a cold low could drop into the Great Basin, setting up a brief north/south flow over California. Conceivably, this could put temperatures in colder locations at or just below freezing early next week. Since this is still more than a week away, this is definitely a low confidence forecast for now. I do want to emphasize nothing critical is on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/65%
Actual Humidity range November 17, 2019: Delano, 95%/46% Porterville, 97%/41%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .61, Parlier .57, Blackwell Corner .60, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .60, Porterville .58, Delano .58. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Blackwell 66, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 64, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 80/27. Average Temperatures: 64/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 205 -82
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 59.1- +4.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.21 Month to Date: .00 -.58
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.63. Month to Date: .00 -.33
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 60, Parlier 106, Arvin 51, Shafter 77, Stratford 70, Delano 84, Lindcove 68, Porterville 139,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:41 Sunset: 4:47 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:08
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 73 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 74 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 76 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 74 / 42 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 75 / 44 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 75 / 44 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 71 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 74 1.73 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 1 1.38 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.52 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.57 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 8 1.21 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 3 1.18 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.63 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 69 0.58 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 53 1.27 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 3 1.18 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 27 1.30 13.95
Next report: Monday, November 18/pm