November 20, 2019
Summary: The center of circulation of a cold core low is over the Los Angeles Basin at this hour. Doppler radar is showing a batch of light showers moving from east to west, which is interesting, across Kern County and southern Tulare County. Further north, showers are forming over the high Sierra but as they move from east to west off the mountains, they dissipate due to that reverse rain shadow. In fact, Doppler radar is also showing the winds aloft between 11,000 and 19,000 feet are out of the east at 20 to 30 MPH.
Rainfall amounts have been scant, at best. So far the only really measurable rain has occurred over the valley portion of Kern County with trace amounts elsewhere. The low will move to a position over southeast California by late afternoon. That means that the southern portions of central California will remain under the circulation pattern of the storm as the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains will receive some decent precipitation. In fact, over the high Sierra over Tulare County, as much as 10 inches of snow will accumulate. The chance of showers will diminish rapidly this evening as the low moves into the Four Corners region by Friday morning. Over the weekend, weak upper level high pressure will cover California as a weak upper low forms off the central coast and drifts southward to off the northern Baja coast by Sunday. This pattern will keep conditions relatively cool this weekend with daytime highs ranging mostly in the mid 60s.
Next week could turn out to be quite interesting. On Monday and Tuesday, a rapidly moving inside slider will move from western Canada into the Great Basin, resulting in a small chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada and possibly injecting a colder, drier air mass onto the valley floor. Some models are now showing a full blown winter storm developing off the northern California coast next Wednesday and Thursday. Included could be significant amounts of precipitation.
Behind this system is what I will have to keep a very close eye on. Some models are projecting a huge ridge of upper level high pressure building to the north, eventually reaching the Arctic Circle. With a strong north/northeast jet stream moving rapidly into California behind the exiting winter storm, on paper it’s a semi freeze pattern, possibly leading to below freezing nights by the time we get to Friday through the following weekend. For now, it’s just a configuration showing up on some models, but not others, but it does deserve close scrutiny.
Forecast: Showers likely today in Kern and Tulare Counties. A small chance of light, scattered showers elsewhere. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight through Thursday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday. Expect areas of fog and low clouds each day from Friday morning through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. a chance of rain Wednesday.
Short Term:
Madera 59/37/64/36/64 | Reedley 60/38/63/36/64 | Dinuba 59/36/64/36/63 |
Porterville 58/39/64/36/63 | Lindsay 59/37/64/35/64 | Delano 59/41/64/39/65 |
Bakersfield 56/47/63/42/64 | Taft 57/48/64/48/64 | Arvin 57/42/64/40/64 |
Lamont 57/43/63/39/64 | Pixley 58/38/63/37/64 | Tulare 59/38/64/36/63 |
Woodlake 59/37/64/35/63 | Hanford 60/39/64/37/64 | Orosi 59/36/65/35/64 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Saturday
Mostly clear 39/65 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 38/65 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 34/62 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 32/61 |
Wednesday
Chance of rain 39/57 |
Two Week Outlook: November 26 through December 2: This model is indicating the possibility of an active pattern between the 28 and the 1st for a chance of rain. This model is also indicating below average temperatures over much of the lower 48, this time including California.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH today with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds tonight through Saturday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: As of 6:00am, measurable rain has been confined primarily to Kern County with trace amounts elsewhere. Bakersfield ended its long, long dry spell with a grand total of .01. Lamont recorded .02 and Mettler picked up .05. as of the time of this writing, light showers were moving through Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. The chance for light showers will continue through the afternoon, mainly in those two locations. Amounts of precipitation will be generally less than .10 with many locations remaining dry. Dry weather will return for the entire region this evening, continuing through at least Tuesday of next week.
Models vary a great deal, but some show a major winter storm trying to develop affecting northern and central California Wednesday and Thursday of next week, just in time for Thanksgiving. Other models, however, show precip remaining in the Pacific Northwest and far northern California. Some models are also suggesting an active pattern during the first week in December. Time will tell whether or not that pans out.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing each night through Sunday morning. For now, it appears low 30s are possible Monday and Tuesday as a cold low dives into the Great Basin just to our east. It’s possible a slightly drier and colder air mass could allow strong radiational cooling both nights. Some models suggest a strong winter storm will affect central California next Wednesday and Thursday. On paper, it’s the possible pattern after Thursday that concerns me. Models show a massive ridge off the north American continent extending all the way to the Arctic Circle with a cold low over the Rocky Mountain region. A strong jet stream is projected to wrap around that low and down the eastern side of the high, creating a north/northeast to south/southwest flow, possibly moving modified Arctic air into California. Other models, though, show a harmless northwesterly flow. For now, it’s just something we’ll have to monitor in the coming days.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 70%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 85%/95%
Actual Humidity range November 19, 2019: Delano, 90%/41% Porterville, 93%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .59, Parlier .55, Blackwell Corner .60, Arvin .64, Orange Cove .60, Porterville .55, Delano .55. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Blackwell 65, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 63, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 80/27. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 214 -101
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 59.2- +5.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.28 Month to Date: .00 -.65
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.68. Month to Date: .00 -.38
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 64, Parlier 114, Arvin 53, Shafter 83, Stratford 79, Delano 93, Lindcove 72, Porterville 153,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:43 Sunset: 4:46 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:04
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 73 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 74 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 75 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 75 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 75 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1500 / 71 / 53 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 69 1.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 1 1.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.60 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.65 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 8 1.28 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 3 1.25 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.68 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 65 0.62 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 49 1.37 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 2 1.25 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 25 1.39 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, November 20/pm