November 21, 2019
Summary: After a very active day over Kern County, dry weather has returned. There is a considerable amount of residual cloudiness over the southern half of the valley with airports reporting the base of the overcast at about 8,000 feet. These clouds will be slow to clear, but most locations should have mostly clear skies by late afternoon. It’s interesting to observe the rainfall totals for all of central California. Bakersfield by far has the highest total with most other locations still not recording measurable rain so far this water year.
A weak low will develop well off the central coast tonight and Friday while a ridge of upper level high pressure wraps around the top of the high and moves into Oregon and the northern half of California. This will create a weak off shore flow this weekend with mostly clear skies prevailing through Monday night.
The next change in the pattern will occur Monday as a cold weather system slides southward from western Canada and into the interior west. No active weather will occur in central California, but it will generate a relatively strong off shore flow Monday into Tuesday. Even though there are still differences on models for the pattern for the middle of next week, the basic trend of a cold weather system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California is there. Most model projections should high temperatures only in the low 50s next Wednesday and Thursday with an increasing chance of rain.
By Friday of next week, a cold northwest flow will prevail, resulting in below average temperatures. This is a change from the north or even northeast flow aloft which some of the previous models had indicated. Theoretically, that could have resulted in a freeze pattern.
Looking further down the road for the last few days of November and the first week in December, models are showing a possibly active pattern with well below average temperatures as a deep trough of low pressure may extend from central and western Canada down into the western U.S.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning from Fresno County south. Mostly clear skies elsewhere. Gradual clearing this afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight through Monday night with areas of night and early morning fog. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a small chance of showers after midnight. A chance of rain Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/35/65/35/65 | Reedley 64/36/64/36/65 | Dinuba 63/34/64/34/64 |
| Porterville 63/37/64/37/65 | Lindsay 62/35/65/35/64 | Delano 63/38/65/38/65 |
| Bakersfield 61/45/65/43/64 | Taft 64/47/64/46/64 | Arvin 61/42/64/40/65 |
| Lamont 61/43/64/41/64 | Pixley 62/39/65/37/65 | Tulare 63/35/65/35/65 |
| Woodlake 63/36/65/35/65 | Hanford 63/39/65/38/65 | Orosi 63/34/65/35/65 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 37/64 |
Monday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 35/63 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 35/57 |
Wednesday
Chance of rain 39/56 |
Thursday
Chance of rain 35/54 |
Two Week Outlook: November 28 through December 4: This model is projecting a decent chance of precipitation during this period as a broad and cold low pressure dominates. Temperatures will range below to possibly well below average during this period.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Dry weather will prevail through Tuesday. As we’ve been discussing for days now, the possibility of a major winter storm affecting northern and central California exists, possibly as early as late Tuesday night. latest models show a dry and cold trough of low pressure over the western states Wednesday through Thursday for a decent chance of rain with snow in the mountains with relatively low snow levels. Dry weather will return next Friday, lasting through the following weekend. Medium range models still point towards the possibility of an active pattern late this month through the first week in December.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight. a slightly colder and dry air mass will overspread the area Monday and Tuesday, allowing a few locations to reach the 32 degree mark or slightly below. At midweek, models are still pointing at a winter storm affecting the area with origins in the Gulf of Alaska. Therefore, above freezing conditions can be expected Wednesday through Thursday. As this storm pulls into the Rocky Mountain area Friday, a cold northwesterly flow will follow. This is a cold pattern, but not a freeze pattern. It’s possible we could see readings in the upper 20s to the lower 30s next Friday through the following weekend. Also, medium range models are still indicating a cold pattern will set up for late November and for the first week in December. It ‘s still way too early to indicate what freeze potential there might be, but after weeks of above average temperatures, we’re certainly overdue. We’ll be monitoring this closely.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 65%/100%
Actual Humidity range November 20, 2019: Delano, 96%/72% Porterville, 89%/67%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .58, Parlier .52, Blackwell Corner .54, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .55, Porterville .48, Delano .49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Blackwell 64, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 63, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 81/30. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 226 -104
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 58.9- +5.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.32 Month to Date: .00 -.69
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.37, or -.33. Month to Date: .37 -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 64, Parlier 120, Arvin 53, Shafter 83, Stratford 79, Delano 93, Lindcove 72, Porterville 153,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:44 Sunset: 4:46 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:03
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 53 / 48 / 0.37 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 44 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1548 / 63 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 48 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 57 / 48 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 67 1.91 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 1 1.53 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.64 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.69 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 8 1.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 3 1.28 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.37 0.37 53 0.00 0 0.70 6.47
BISHOP T T 0 0.40 63 0.64 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.67 47 1.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.02 0.02 2 0.03 2 1.28 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.02 0.02 1 0.35 24 1.44 13.95
Next report: Thursday, November 21/pm