November 22, 2019
Summary: The air, both on the valley floor and aloft, continues to slowly warm. The freezing level has risen to 9,100 feet with temperatures on the valley floor as of 1:00pm in the mid 60s. skies are clear other than some cumulous which formed over the surrounding mountains.
Tomorrow through Monday will essentially be carbon copies with mid 60s during the warmest part of the afternoon and lows in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. in the big picture, an upper low is located roughly 600 miles west of the central coast. It will drift southward to off the northern Baja coastline by Sunday night.
Monday will give us our first inklings of a major pattern change which will bring potentially some significant precipitation to virtually all of California. High pressure will shift towards the southwest off shore, allowing a huge trough of cold low pressure to develop over western Canada, sinking into northern and central California Wednesday. there will be a small chance of showers from mainly Fresno north Tuesday night with periods of rain Wednesday and with on and off precipitation through Friday.
On the surface models, there are still plenty of isobars, or lines of equal pressure, which indicate the potential for strong gusty winds on the valley floor beginning Tuesday night but especially Wednesday. right now it’s not a true classic high wind configuration for Kern County, but there are similarities.
The center of the low will be right in our vicinity Thanksgiving Day with a pool of cold air which will lower snow levels to possibly as low as 3,000 feet Thanksgiving Day and Friday. There is some indication on some models of a possible tropical connection into southern California Thursday afternoon through Friday which could result in possibly heavy precipitation over the mountains and coastal plains from Kern County south.
This will be a very large and very slow moving system, so the Sierra Nevada could especially pick up a great deal of precipitation, including upslope precipitation, with snow by the foot from roughly 5,000 feet and above. By Saturday, this potent winter storm will have moved into the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountain region, leaving behind a cold northeast flow. That flow could pump cold dry air into the valley for the possibility of some frost nights.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday night with patchy late night and early morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. A chance of showers Tuesday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday night. showers likely Friday with a chance of showers for a time Friday night. partly to mostly cloudy Saturday with areas of fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/66/36/66 | Reedley 37/65/36/65 | Dinuba 35/64/35/65 | |
| Porterville 37/66/37/66 | Lindsay 37/65/37/66 | Delano 38/67/38/67 | |
| Bakersfield 42/65/43/66 | Taft 46/65/47/65 | Arvin 40/65/41/67 | |
| Lamont 40/66/41/66 | Pixley 38/65/38/66 | Tulare 34/64/35/65 | |
| Woodlake 39/66/38/66 | Hanford 38/65/37/66 | Orosi 35/65/35/65 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday night. Winds Tuesday evening will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Models still indicate the potential is there for strong gusty winds on the valley floor Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly in the 15 to 30 MPH category along the west side of the valley and from Fresno County north on the east side. There is a chance of some strong, gusty winds in Kern County, possibly exceeding 50 MPH near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains and out of the south to southeast. For now, we’re just talking potential. Sometimes these winds reach the valley floor and sometimes they don’t. But the configuration this far out looks favorable.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Thursday. The chance for showers will begin to increase Thursday night especially after midnight and from Fresno County north. Periods of rain can be expected Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day, turning to showers Thursday night through Friday evening with dry weather returning later Friday night through the following weekend. Models are indicating the southern half of California, especially from Kern County south, may have the highest potential for heavy precipitation as the south and southeastern quadrants of the storm appear to be the most active. The Sierra Nevada will be in a favorable upslope position for heavy snow from the 5,000 foot elevation and above and several feet are possible. On the valley floor, we will definitely be dealing with rain shadows along the west side and in the south valley. Heaviest precipitation along the valley floor will likely occur in Madera County, eastern Fresno, and northeast Tulare County where as much as .50 cannot be ruled out. It’s possible the west side may only pick up .10 to .20 with that much possible over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will prevail next weekend and it appears dry weather will continue for several days thereafter for lots of fog and low clouds.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight through Monday night, but only slightly above in the coldest, low lying locations. A very active pattern still shows up nicely on all the models this afternoon beginning Tuesday and lasting all the way through Friday evening. Periods of precipitation and heavy cloud cover will keep temperatures above freezing during that time period. The strong winter storm will finally move off Friday night with a strong flow wrapping around the back side of the low and into California. This gives the potential for colder and drier air to move into the valley. Beginning next Saturday morning, upper 20s and lower 30s are possible. It’s also possible that plenty of fog, clouds, and lingering cloud cover could keep temperatures above freezing. I’m hoping for a soaking wet valley floor by this coming weekend which would go a long way to alleviate any possible freeze threat. Currently, nothing on models suggests a pattern that would lead to dangerously cold weather.
Next report: Saturday morning/November 23