November 22, 2019
Summary: The air mass is slowly moderating. The freezing level has now struggled up to 8,500 feet, according to the latest sounding over Vandenberg. A closed low has developed about 500 miles west of the central coast which will drift southward to well off the southern California coast by Sunday. A narrow ridge of upper level high pressure will build eastward into Oregon and northern California. This will create a weak easterly flow over central California. With fairly weak pressures aloft, temperatures over the weekend will generally range in the mid 60s each day through Monday. Fog should remain fairly patchy, especially considering only Kern County received significant precipitation a few days ago.
Speaking of precipitation, it now appears likely rain will re-enter the picture with increasing cloud cover ahead of what will be a broad expanse of low pressure which will enter northern California Tuesday with the center of the low somewhere near the Bay Area Wednesday. not quite as many isobars on the surface model this morning, but certainly enough for gusty southeasterly winds late Tuesday night and Wednesday with some possible downslope winds in Kern County.
The configuration would not favor heavy precipitation on the valley floor, but significant upsloping along the Sierra Nevada could result in heavy snow over the high country, perhaps as much as 3 feet, according to one model. This system will be quite cold with snow in the higher foothills Thanksgiving Day and into Friday. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of problems over the Ridge Route before this system begins to wind down Friday.
As the low gravitates into the Rocky Mountain region next Saturday, a cold north/northeast flow will wrap around the back side of the system, pumping chilly air into California. This could lead to a series of frost nights. For now, there’s no weather configuration showing up which would result in a freeze scenario.
Unlike previous model runs, it now appears the first week in December may actually be quite tranquil with increasing amounts of night and morning fog.
Forecast: Other than patchy fog and a few high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday leading to a chance of rain Tuesday night, especially after midnight. Periods of rain will be likely Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. Showers likely Thursday night with a chance of showers Friday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Friday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/35/65/35/65 | Reedley 66/36/65/35/66 | Dinuba 64/34/65/34/65 |
| Porterville 66/37/65/37/66 | Lindsay 65/36/65/36/66 | Delano 65/38/65/39/65 |
| Bakersfield 64/43/65/41/65 | Taft 64/46/64/44/65 | Arvin 67/41/65/41/66 |
| Lamont 66/38/65/38/65 | Pixley 64/38/65/38/65 | Tulare 64/35/65/35/65 |
| Woodlake 64/36/65/37/65 | Hanford 66/39/65/38/66 | Orosi 64/36/65/36/66 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 38/65 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 38/60 |
Wednesday
Periods of rain 39/53 |
Thanksgiving Day
Periods of rain 39/52 |
Friday
AM showers possible 35/52 |
Two Week Outlook: November 28 through December 4: This model is projecting a decent chance of precipitation during this period as a broad and cold low pressure dominates. Temperatures will range below to possibly well below average during this period.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday. This morning’s models for Tuesday night and Wednesday aren’t quite as dramatic as they were 24 hours ago for wind potential. Even so, the proper configuration is there for fairly strong, gusty, southeast winds up the west side and from Fresno County north on the east side. It’s also possible, but by no means in concrete yet, for strong, gusty winds to develop downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains and onto the valley floor Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. For now, we’ll leave wind velocity out of the picture as it’s simply too early to nail it down, but be aware that strong, gusty winds will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Rain: Rain will become more and more likely beginning Tuesday night with periods of precipitation likely Wednesday all the way into Friday morning as this will be a slow moving system. The chance of measurable rain will begin Tuesday night, especially after midnight, with the likelihood of periodic rain Wednesday through Thursday night and showers winding down Friday. Rainfall amounts will vary widely, as they always do on the valley floor, ranging from .10 to possibly .33, especially in Madera County and eastern Fresno County. This will be a cold system with snow levels lowering down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet in the surrounding mountains. As much as two to three feet could accumulate over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
Dry weather will return by Friday afternoon, continuing through the weekend. Most models are now pointing to a dry weather pattern for the first week in December.
Frost Discussion: Coldest locations through Tuesday morning will generally be in the 34 to 36 degree range with most locations from 37 to 41. Winds Wednesday, Thursday, and more than likely Friday will be above freezing due to heavy cloud cover and shower activity.
For next Saturday and thereafter, we may see temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s as cold air aloft wraps around the back side of the exiting storm and moves into California. Fortunately, there’s nothing depicting a freeze pattern, just more of a typical early December frost night situation.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/95%
Actual Humidity range November 21, 2019: Delano, 99%/40% Porterville, 96%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .56, Parlier .52, Blackwell Corner .51, Arvin .53, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .47, Delano .49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 58, Blackwell 64, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 63, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 77/28. Average Temperatures: 62/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 235 -110
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 58.7- +5.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.36 Month to Date: .00 -.73
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.37, or -.35. Month to Date: .37 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 64, Parlier 120, Arvin 53, Shafter 83, Stratford 79, Delano 93, Lindcove 72, Porterville 153,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:45 Sunset: 4:45 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
: …Valley…
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 66 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 47 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1540 / 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 44 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1546 / 63 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.82 92 1.97 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.57 36 1.58 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.69 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.58 33 1.74 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.57 42 1.36 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.32 24 1.31 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.37 51 0.05 7 0.72 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.06 9 0.40 62 0.65 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 1.42 96 1.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.02 2 0.41 31 1.32 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.02 1 0.53 36 1.49 13.95
Next report: Friday, November 22/pm