November 24, 2019
Summary: Today will be the last day of this weather pattern which has resulted in pleasant afternoons and chilly nights. A ridge of high pressure which has been bulging into Oregon and northern California will shift off shore Monday night, allowing two cold weather systems to dive southward from the Pacific Northwest.
The first system is moisture starved and will dive into the Great Basin in about 24 to 36 hours. As pressures fall over the interior, winds will pick up out of the northwest on the valley floor, mainly along the west side where winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range will be commonplace. Somewhat lighter winds can be expected on the east side, especially in Kern and Tulare Counties. These winds could very well drive down dew points, possibly leading to somewhat chillier overnight temperatures, assuming skies are clear Tuesday morning with coldest unprotected locations possibly in the upper 20s. more on that in the frost discussion below.
Behind this system is a rapidly intensifying, extremely cold low pressure system which is diving southward partially over water. This system is dragging very cold air from northwest Canada southward. This will arrive Tuesday but we’ll see the effects more so Wednesday through Friday. By Tuesday night, the center of the low both at the surface and aloft is projected to be near northwest California. Surface models indicate there are plenty of isobars for strong, gusty winds, especially over northern California. Gusty southeast winds Tuesday night and Wednesday morning can be expected.
The center of the surface low is projected to be a bit further north than previously indicated. This will somewhat reduce the chance of a high wind event over the Kern County portion of the valley floor. Even so, the configuration is pretty close, so it’s still possible gusty winds will occur near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains, mainly Tuesday night and Wednesday morning when pressure differences reach their pinnacle. Periods of rain will arrive in the valley Tuesday night from Fresno County north, spreading rapidly southward Wednesday. a pool of very cold modified arctic air will move overhead Wednesday afternoon through Friday. It’s possible snow could fall as low as 1,500 feet in the surrounding mountains Thanksgiving Day. Some models are hinting at a few snowflakes reaching the valley floor late Thursday night through Friday morning, but that remains to be seen.
Models also indicate there will be strong dynamics in the atmosphere, so if we observe some breaks in the cloud deck Wednesday or Thursday afternoon, isolated thunderstorms will be possible with localized heavy rain and small hail. Showers will begin to be more widely scattered Friday. My feeling is most of the active weather will be confined to the mountains by Friday afternoon as the low finally opens up and shifts eastward.
Models are all over the place on the potential of a storm forming off the northern California coast Saturday and Sunday. Most models show this system remaining too far off shore to threaten precipitation for the valley, however the GFS model shows precipitation moving in over the northern half of the state, but for now it’s the odd model out. This same model is also indicating an active weather pattern beginning about the 6th, producing generous precipitation. But other models think the GFS model is a bit flaky.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday. Showers spreading as far south as Fresno County Tuesday night, mainly after midnight, with gusty winds developing. Periods of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers Thanksgiving Day and Thanksgiving night with snow down into the lower foothills and another chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. It’s possible a few snowflakes could reach the valley floor Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. A chance of showers Friday, mainly during the morning hours. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning. A slight chance of showers from Fresno County north Saturday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/34/63/31/54 | Reedley 67/35/63/31/55 | Dinuba 65/30/63/30/53 |
| Porterville 67/36/63/31/54 | Lindsay 67/34/63/30/55 | Delano 66/37/63/32/54 |
| Bakersfield 68/41/62/35/54 | Taft 66/42/62/40/55 | Arvin 68/38/62/33/56 |
| Lamont 68/38/62/34/55 | Pixley 67/36/63/31/55 | Tulare 65/34/62/30/53 |
| Woodlake 67/35/63/31/54 | Hanford 67/36/63/31/55 | Orosi 66/35/63/30/54 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Periods of rain 38/52 |
Thursday
Showers likely 39/53 |
Friday
AM showers 33/50 |
Saturday
Variable clouds 32/54 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 35/60 |
Two Week Outlook: November 30 through December 6: It’s not often that this model indicates an 80% chance of well below average temperatures, but that’s what this model is now indicating. This same model indicates a greater potential for precipitation over the southern half of California and below average precipitation over northern California. That being said, precipitation will probably be in the low chance category.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or les than 6 MPH with nearly calm conditions. Winds will increase Monday along the west side of the valley to 10 to 20 MPH with gusts as high as 25 MPH with winds generally in the 8 to 15 MPH range elsewhere, diminishing Monday night. later Tuesday afternoon and night, winds north of Kern County along the center and west side of the valley will be out of the southeast at 15 to 35 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly in western Fresno County and possibly from Madera County north along the east side. In Tulare County, winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
It’s definitely a toss up for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for the valley portion of Kern County. Models this morning peg the center of the low near northwest California, further north than previous models had indicating, ,reducing the chance of a strong wind event. Even so, I must continue to forecast a chance of winds blowing downslope off the Tehachapi possibly in excess of 50 MPH Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Winds could be possibly in excess of 35 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. Winds will diminish to around 15 to 20 MPH by Wednesday afternoon and 10 to 20 MPH Wednesday night and Thursday.
Rain: The chance of rain will begin to increase Tuesday night, mainly from Fresno County north after midnight. Expect periods of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night. isolated thunderstorms are also possible which would be accompanied by brief heavy rain and small hail.
From Thursday through Friday morning, the precipitation pattern will be more showery with another chance of thunderstorms Thanksgiving afternoon and evening.
Showers will become more widely scattered Friday morning. It’s possible a snowflake or two could reach the valley floor late Thursday night or Friday morning.
Most of the action will be confined to the Kern County mountains and the Sierra Nevada by Friday afternoon. This storm will be accompanied by strong, gusty winds in many areas which will contribute to rain shadows along the western and southern flanks of the valley. From late Tuesday nigh through Friday morning, upwards of .25 is expected along the west side and possibly even less over the valley portion of Kern County. Along the eastern side of Madera and Fresno Counties and northern Tulare County, the best guesstimate is between .50 and .75.
Lift over the Sierra Nevada will generate copious amounts of snow, possibly in the range of 3 to 5 feet above the 5,000 foot elevation with snow accumulating down to 1,500 feet or so.
Models vary on the pattern for the coming weekend. A low will develop off the northern California coast. One model shows it close enough for precipitation over the northern half of the state while others show it remaining too far off shore to affect California.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight, but at or slightly above in the coldest frost pockets. A fast moving weather system will jet through the Great Basin Monday, increasing pressure differences between the interior and the coast for gusty northwest winds down the west side of the valley. This may lower dew points enough by Tuesday morning to allow coldest locations to dip to 28 to 30 or so with most locations in the low to mid 30s. above freezing conditions will prevail Wednesday through Friday mornings due to cloud cover and precipitation.
The forecast for Saturday through Monday morning is very low confidence at this time. One model shows a storm off the northern California coast close enough to increase cloud cover over the valley, thus reducing the chance of freezing conditions. It’s also possible our first round of extensive fog and low clouds could take over, which would also alleviate the situation. However, the third possibility is skies will be clear, in which case temperatures would lower into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. there is an outside chance of the coldest locations being between 26 to 28 degrees. At this point, we’ll simply have to monitor all the parameters as these factors come into play.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/90%
Actual Humidity range November 23, 2019: Delano, 96%/42% Porterville, 96%/37%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .58, Parlier .53, Blackwell Corner .56, Arvin .54, Orange Cove .56, Porterville .48, Delano .49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 58, Blackwell 63, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 62, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 78/29. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 256 -121
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 58.3- +5.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.44 Month to Date: .00 -.81
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.37, or -.40. Month to Date: .37 -.10
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 81, Parlier 142, Arvin 65, Shafter 95, Stratford 99, Delano 114, Lindcove 93, Porterville 179,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:47 Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:57
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 69 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 65 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 64 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 2.51 120 2.09 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.81 48 1.68 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.57 32 1.76 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.58 32 1.81 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.60 42 1.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.34 25 1.37 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.37 48 0.33 43 0.77 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.06 9 0.41 59 0.69 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 1.74 109 1.59 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.02 1 0.42 30 1.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.02 1 0.56 35 1.59 13.95
Next report: Sunday, November 24/pm