November 25, 2019
Summary: The weather pattern is rapidly changing and will turn into full gear winter mode as the week progresses. The first phase of this change is already well underway as a rapidly moving inside slider, or low pressure system, is moving into Nevada and Utah. As pressures rapidly fall over the interior west, pressure differences between Nevada and northern California will generate gusty northwesterly winds down the valley through this evening. Gusts to 35 MPH are possible along the west side and from Fresno County north along the east side with gusts to near 20 MPH elsewhere. These winds will begin to dry out the atmosphere, lowering dew points. For the first time since early November, below freezing temperatures will occur tonight in areas where winds die off. More in the frost discussion below.
As mentioned, the first phase of this change is already well underway. The second phase is a very strong winter storm. The low is currently partially off the British Columbia coast and partially over western Canada. There is plenty of modified arctic air with this system as it races southward, centering near the California/Oregon border by late Tuesday night.
As we have been discussing for quite some time, plenty of isobars are apparent on surface models Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This will generate strong, gusty, southeasterly winds up the west side of the valley. Winds in excess of 30 MPH are certainly possible. In Kern County, we may see strong, gusty downslope winds develop off the Tehachapi Mountains. This may not occur, but it’s certainly a good idea for us to keep this in the forecast as a just in case scenario. More in the wind discussion below.
Rain and higher elevation snow will zip rapidly southward into central California, possibly reaching Fresno County by sunset, becoming likely later Tuesday night and at times through Thanksgiving night. central California will be in the southern sector of the circulation pattern of this storm with the winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere moving overhead from the west/southwest. As that air is lifted, heavy snow will fall with 3 to 4 feet of new snow certainly possible over the higher elevations. The coldest air aloft will be above us Wednesday afternoon to early Friday. If we get some breaks in the cloud deck, isolated thunderstorms will be possible which would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. That chance will exist both on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
By Friday, the low will begin to open up and shift into the Great Basin. There is a chance of showers Friday morning, but most of the activity will be over the mountain areas. Dry weather will finally return Friday afternoon through Saturday. there is a considerable amount of uncertainly for the weather Saturday night through Monday. Models continue to place a large area of low pressure off the northern California coast. Some models show the western side of the low moving into northern and central California which would result in a chance of showers during the second half of the weekend. Other models show the low remaining too far off shore for rain. For now, the best course of action will be to introduce a small chance of showers Sunday and Monday and see what trends transpire between now and then.
Forecast: Mostly clear through tonight. increasing cloudiness Tuesday. A slight chance of showers from Fresno County north late Tuesday afternoon. Rain at times later Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Showers likely Thanksgiving Day and night with a chance of thunderstorms Thanksgiving afternoon. A diminishing chance of showers Friday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a chance of showers Sunday through Monday, mainly from Fresno County north.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/29/54/40/48 | Reedley 63/31/55/39/50 | Dinuba 62/30/54/39/49 |
| Porterville 63/31/55/40/51 | Lindsay 62/30/54/39/50 | Delano 63/32/55/41/51 |
| Bakersfield 64/40/55/41/51 | Taft 63/43/55/42/51 | Arvin 64/34/55/42/52 |
| Lamont 64/34/55/41/51 | Pixley 63/31/55/40/50 | Tulare 62/30/55/39/49 |
| Woodlake 63/31/55/38/50 | Hanford 64/33/55/39/51 | Orosi 62/31/55/38/50 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thanksgiving
Showers likely 40/52 |
Friday
AM showers possible 36/51 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 33/53 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 35/58 |
Monday
Chance of showers 40/63 |
Two Week Outlook: December 1 through December 8: It’s not often that this model indicates an 80% chance of well below average temperatures, but that’s what this model is now indicating. This same model indicates a greater potential for precipitation over the southern half of California and below average precipitation over northern California. That being said, precipitation will probably be in the low chance category.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: During the late morning through evening hours, winds will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH, mainly in Kings and Madera Counties and western Fresno County. Winds out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH can be expected in Tulare County and eastern Kern County with stronger gusts. Winds will diminish later this evening, becoming generally light after midnight. Winds will do an about face later Tuesday, becoming out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 35 MPH Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with stronger gusts along the west side and from Fresno County north. In Tulare county, winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. The configuration on surface models are not quite a classic high wind configuration for Kern County due to the fact the center of lowest pressure is pretty far to our north. Even so, it’s close enough for the forecast to include a chance of high winds in the extreme south valley, possibly exceeding 50 MPH and possibly reaching 35 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. Again, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be the riskiest time. From Wednesday afternoon through Thanksgiving Day, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The upcoming event will be the first measurable rain at many locations north of Kern County. There is a good many complexities with this upcoming storm with the chance of shower as far south as Kern County late Tuesday afternoon with rain spreading rapidly southward later Tuesday night and continuing on and off through Wednesday night. Expect showers Thursday and Thursday night. there will also be a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons and evenings. If this comes to fruition, localized heavy rain and small hail will occur in isolated locations. Note that snow will also fall down into the lower foothills surrounding the valley.
The action will wind down Friday morning with dry weather returning Friday afternoon through Saturday. models have upped the ante a bit for rainfall amounts. In Madera County, eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties, as much as .75 may be recorded. Due to a strong rain shadow along the west side and in Kern County, .25 or less is anticipated.
The pattern for the second half of the weekend through Monday is low confidence, to say the least. What is for sure is a large area of low pressure will be off the northern and central California coast. Some models place it close enough to allow rain to spread into northern and central California. Others show it too far off shore, resulting in a dry weekend. The best course of action for now will be to keep a chance of showers in the forecast for Saturday night through Monday, mainly from Fresno County north, and see what transpires on models in the coming days.
Frost Discussion: A colder and drier air mass is currently overspreading northern California and will arrive in central California later today on the heels of gusty winds out of the northwest. Dew points, which had been running in the mid 30s to the lower 40s, will fall into the mid to upper 20s on the west side this afternoon and the upper 20s to the mid 30s elsewhere. Where winds die off tonight, temperatures down to 28 to 29 degrees are possible for a few hours before sunrise in the coldest locations. Most locations will range from 30 to 34 degrees.
The inversion tonight will be fairly weak with temperatures at 34 feet from 1 to 4 degrees warmer.
All locations will be above freezing Wednesday through Thursday mornings. In all likelihood, temperatures will be above freezing Friday. However, if there are areas with clearing, lows could dip to 29 to 31 for short durations.
It appears there’s at least a reasonable chance temperatures will remain above freezing this weekend and into the coming week, as well, though that’s by no means guaranteed. Models are showing a trend in placing a big low off the Oregon/northern California coast Saturday night through Monday with even a chance of showers from Fresno County north. Should this pattern set up, above freezing conditions will prevail. If the low ends up farther out to sea, then frost nights would certainly begin, possibly in the 27 to 29 degree range at colder locations. For now, I’m leaning towards the warmer possibility.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
35 |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Mid 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/75%
Actual Humidity range November 24, 2019: Delano, 95%/40% Porterville, 96%/38%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .58, Parlier .52, Blackwell Corner .52, Arvin .53, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .47, Delano .48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 57, Blackwell 63, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 61, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 76/27. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 268 -125
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 58.1- +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.47 Month to Date: .00 -.84
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.37, or -.43. Month to Date: .37 -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 81, Parlier 142, Arvin 65, Shafter 95, Stratford 99, Delano 114, Lindcove 93, Porterville 179,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:57
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1500 / 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1500 / 68 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1500 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 70 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 67 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1558 / 65 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 2.51 117 2.15 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.81 47 1.73 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.58 32 1.80 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.58 32 1.84 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.60 41 1.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.34 24 1.39 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.37 46 0.34 43 0.80 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.06 8 0.41 58 0.71 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 1.83 112 1.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.02 1 0.42 29 1.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.02 1 0.57 35 1.64 13.95
Next report: Monday, November 25/pm