November 26, 2019
Summary: We are off to a chilly start this morning as a few locations dipped into the upper 20s with widespread low to mid 30s out there. This will be the last frost night we’ll see for a while as the pattern is rapidly changing due to a quickly intensifying low pressure system located roughly 400 miles west of the Oregon coast. Clouds are increasing over northern California with light precipitation as far south as the Mount Shasta/Siskiyou region. The freezing level over Oakland last night was 6,200 feet, a drop of 6,000 feet from the previous day. Up north, over Medford, the freezing level was down to 3,800 feet.
The rapid descent of the freezing levels is a precursor of what is to come. Clouds will increase today as the main center of low pressure both at the surface and aloft parks over the California/Oregon border Wednesday through Thursday. Isobars are still tightly wound around this low and this will result in strong, gusty southeast winds tonight and Wednesday morning, especially along the west side of the valley where gusts to near 40 MPH are possible. Kern County will also be a risky region for wind. This is all outlined below in the wind summary.
This is a very dynamic and cold weather system. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, the flow at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be out of the west/southwest as a 130 knot jet stream sweeps overhead. This is an ideal configuration for heavy precipitation along the Sierra Nevada which will record 3 plus feet of new snow before this storm winds down Thursday night and Friday.
As the very cold air moves in aloft, significant dynamics will set up in the atmosphere. This means there’s a fairly high risk of at least isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and Thanksgiving afternoons, especially if there are any breaks in the cloud deck, allowing the sun to warm the ground.
The snow level in the surrounding mountains will plummet down to roughly 2,000 feet, especially late Wednesday night through Thanksgiving night. by late Thursday night and Friday, the center of circulation will have opened up as the system moves into the interior west for a dry day Friday and Friday night.
Most models are coming into alignment now in showing a new Pacific storm moving to a position off the northern California coast Saturday morning, spreading precipitation over northern and central California. It’s too early to tell how close to the coast this storm will ultimately be. If it remains too far off shore, precipitation amounts could be quite light. However, as the low slowly moves down the coast during the weekend and into early next week, periods of rain will continue. For now, it appears it will be Tuesday before this low finally weakens and moves inland through southern California, ending the chance of precipitation. After Tuesday, we should see at least a few days of dry weather with increasing amounts of valley fog and low clouds.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Rain spreading down the valley tonight. periods of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night. showers Thursday, tapering off Thursday night. there will be a chance of thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thanksgiving afternoons and evenings which would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Expect strong, gusty, southeast winds later tonight and Wednesday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Friday and Friday night. a slight chance of showers Saturday morning with periods of showers Saturday afternoon through Monday with a chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/38/50/37/49 | Reedley 56/40/50/37/50 | Dinuba 54/38/49/37/48 |
| Porterville 56/39/51/38/50 | Lindsay 54/38/51/37/48 | Delano 56/40/51/39/50 |
| Bakersfield 57/43/52/40/49 | Taft 57/41/52/40/48 | Arvin 58/41/52/38/48 |
| Lamont 57/43/52/43/49 | Pixley 56/39/50/38/50 | Tulare 54/38/49/37/48 |
| Woodlake 55/39/50/38/49 | Hanford 56/39/50/38/49 | Orosi 55/38/50/37/49 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly cloudy 38/50 |
Saturday
Periods of showers 39/53 |
Sunday
Periods of showers 42/60 |
Monday
Periods of showers 45/61 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 46/62 |
Two Week Outlook: December 3 through December 9: This model is indicating a generally westerly flow into central California during this time frame for marginally above average temperatures in the valley. This model also indicates there’s a reasonably good chance of rain from time to time during this period.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds this morning will be generally variable to around 7 MPH. Winds this afternoon will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to around 10 to 30 MPH this evening. Later tonight through Wednesday morning, strong gusty winds will commence out of the southeast at 15 to 35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH possible from Fresno County north and along the west side. In Tulare County, winds will be generally out of the east/southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
It’s still generally a toss of the dice as far as a high wind event goes later tonight in Kern County. A very intense low pressure system is setting up large differences in pressure between northern and southern California. Typically, you would have to see the center of the low west or northwest of the Bay Area. This time, the center of circulation will be near the California Oregon border, a few hundred miles further north. Even so, there remains a reasonable chance of strong, gusty, south to southeast winds blowing downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains and onto the valley floor. Wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH would be possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains if this does set up. Gusts to 35 MPH or more would be possible north of Oildale. Winds Wednesday afternoon through Thanksgiving Day will be generally out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds later Thursday night and Friday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH.
Rain: Precipitation is rapidly spreading southward over northwest California at this hour and into the Mount Shasta/Siskiyou region. Rain will advance quickly southward, spreading into Fresno County by late evening and over the remainder of the valley by sunrise. This is a very dynamic winter storm with strong winds aloft creating strong rain shadows along the lee side of the Coast Range, or the west side of the valley, and, of course, in Kern County. On the flip side, the Sierra Nevada and, to a lesser extent the Kern County mountains will pick up heavy amounts of precipitation. For now, three plus feet of new snow is indicated in the Sierra Nevada. Expect periods of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night, turning to showers Thanksgiving Day, tapering off Thursday night with a brief dry period Friday.
Rainfall amounts typically vary widely during major winter storms. About .25 to .35 is indicated along the west side and probably .25 or less over the valley portion of Kern County. In Madera County, eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties, .50 to .75 seems plausible at this time. Isolated thunderstorms are also likely both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Where this occurs, over an inch of precipitation cannot be ruled out.
As mentioned, dry weather will return Friday and Friday night. however, models are in more agreement on a new storm approaching the California coast Saturday morning, spreading showers over central California Saturday with periods of showers continuing Saturday night through Monday as the low moves very slowly southward parallel to the coast. I want to add somewhat of a caveat in here. This storm could move southward a bit further to the west than currently indicated. This could result in less rain to none at all. At this time, though, the chance of rain seems pretty high.
Frost Discussion: We had a brief frost event this morning. As of 6:00am, Fowler and Ivanhoe were the coldest I could find at 27 with Sanger and Reedley at 28. Most other locations chilled down to 30 to 34.
It appears likely now that this will be the only frost night this week as we enter into a very active weather pattern. Even though this upcoming storm will be very cold, cloud cover and periods of rain will keep overnight temperatures generally in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. if there is a small window of opportunity Friday night and Saturday morning, if skies clear, upper 20s to lower 30s would be possible. That appears unlikely at this time, though. Models show cloud cover and an increasing chance of rain over the weekend and into early next week, maintaining above freezing conditions. For now, it appears a westerly flow will set up by the middle of next week for a continuation of above freezing conditions.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 20s. Kern: Mid to upper 20s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/75%
Actual Humidity range November 25, 2019: Delano, 97%/29% Porterville, 96%/31%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .63, Parlier .53, Blackwell Corner .60, Arvin .53, Orange Cove .56, Porterville .46, Delano .47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 57, Blackwell 62, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 61, Delano 53
Record Temperatures: 81/30. Average Temperatures: 60/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 283 -127
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 57.8- +4.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.51 Month to Date: .00 -.88
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.37, or -.45. Month to Date: .37 -.15
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 102, Parlier 164, Arvin 84, Shafter 112, Stratford 117, Delano 135, Lindcove 110, Porterville 202
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:49 Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1523 / 63 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 2.51 114 2.21 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.81 46 1.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.58 32 1.83 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.58 31 1.88 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.60 40 1.51 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.34 24 1.41 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.37 45 0.34 41 0.82 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.06 8 0.41 56 0.73 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 1.83 108 1.70 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.02 1 0.42 29 1.46 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.02 1 0.57 34 1.69 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, November 26/pm