November 29, 2019
Summary: A 140 knot jet stream running from northwest to southeast is right above central California this afternoon. It continues to destabilize the atmosphere for numerous showers over the Sierra Nevada with scattered light showers over the Coast Range, as well. Even a few isolated showers have popped up over the valley floor which will diminish over the next several hours.
The next challenge will be overnight low temperatures. It’s possible we could see upper 20s and lower 30s tonight, but only where skies open up for several hours. More in the frost discussion below.
The exiting storm is now centered over southern Idaho and is moving east/northeast. Meanwhile, the next Pacific storm will be approaching the northern California coast Saturday and will be just off the northern California coast Saturday night. satellite imagery clearly shows a tropical connection with this system from north of Hawaii, feeding into the center of low pressure which is still about 1,200 miles off shore. This feed of moisture will move into central California beginning late Saturday afternoon and will continue into Monday morning. The elements are setting up just right for that stream of moisture to be lifted by the Sierra Nevada. Some models show as much as 3 to 6 inches of rain over the mountain and foothill regions. Rains of this magnitude on top of a fairly large snow pack is always a recipe for floods along rivers and streams.
The usual rain shadow will be present in the south valley and along the west side. Most models indicate the rain will move no further south than the Kern County mountains through Monday morning with southern California remaining dry during that time frame.
The low will move slowly southward along the central coast Monday night and Tuesday, the counterclockwise circulation will cause bands of showers to pinwheel over central California. If the elements come together just right, the low will move across Kern County late Tuesday night and Wednesday, resulting in widespread showers with a chance of thunderstorms.
Showers will taper off Wednesday night with possibly a dry slot of weather Thursday into Friday. Another strong trough of low pressure, this time from the Gulf of Alaska, will dig rapidly southward, spreading precipitation over all of California Friday night into Sunday. So, we have an exiting very cold storm, then a very mild storm, followed by another cold storm to wrap up the week.
Forecast: A slight chance of showers through early this evening. Mostly to partly cloudy tonight in Kern County and eastern Tulare County with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Partly cloudy for a time Saturday morning after patchy morning fog. Increasing cloudiness later Saturday morning with a slight chance of rain after 3:00pm from Fresno north. Rain at times Saturday night through Monday morning, possibly locally heavy at times from Fresno County north with gusty southeast winds developing. Mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday with a chance of showers. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, ending Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday through Friday morning. A chance of rain again late Friday afternoon and Friday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 30/53/41/56 | Reedley 31/53/40/57 | Dinuba 30/52/40/56 | |
| Porterville 31/53/41/57 | Lindsay 30/53/40/57 | Delano 33/54/44/58 | |
| Bakersfield 37/54/43/58 | Taft 34/52/45/58 | Arvin 34/53/43/59 | |
| Lamont 35/52/42/58 | Pixley 31/53/40/58 | Tulare 29/52/40/56 | |
| Woodlake 30/51/40/57 | Hanford 31/51/40/57 | Orosi 30/53/41/56 | |
Winds: Winds this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH, becoming light overnight into Saturday morning. Winds Saturday afternoon will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts Saturday night through Sunday. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
We again will have to watch Kern County Saturday night and Sunday for the possibility of strong, gusty, east to southeast winds blowing downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains. The configuration will be fairly decent in giving a reasonable chance of 50 MPH plus winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains, especially near the bottom of the Grapevine. Occasionally these winds fan out through much of the Kern County portion of the valley floor, reaching as far north as Bakersfield which could see gusts as high as 35 MPH. one model projects sustained winds at Bakersfield of 20 MPH later Saturday night.
The low will weaken somewhat Monday. As it does, the winds will decrease somewhat.
Rain: There are still a considerable amount of snow showers over the Sierra Nevada with a few light showers over the Coast Range, but the valley at this hour is rain free. Expect dry weather tonight through Saturday morning with a small chance of rain after roughly 3:00pm Saturday. from Saturday night through Monday, precipitation will overspread the valley, possibly locally heavy at times over the east side, mainly from Tulare County north. The dynamics over the south valley appear a good deal weaker, so for now it appears much lighter amounts will occur there. From the Fresno/Tulare County line north, over an inch of rain is possible in Madera County and eastern Fresno County to possibly a half to three quarters of an inch at Porterville northward in Tulare County. Along the west side, a quarter to a half inch is possible.
As the storm moves down the central coast Monday afternoon through Tuesday, bands of showers will move into central California from time to time. The storm will move inland with most models showing it moving through Kern County which means we should see widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Thursday through much of the day Friday looks dry overall. The next system to pound California will be in the form of a deep, cold trough of low pressure moving through Friday night through early Sunday with possibly several days of dry weather after that.
Frost Discussion: A good amount of cloud cover remains over the valley floor as of the time of this writing. With a northwesterly flow above the valley floor, clouds will stack up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada for the potential for partly cloudy skies over the eastern and southern flanks of the valley with clearing skies elsewhere. Even though the air mass is very cold, there will be a lot of mixing down to the valley floor during the course of the night, helping to keep temperatures up. Even so, where winds die off and become calm and skies clear, the potential of the coldest river bottom and like locations dropping down to 27 to 29 degrees is there with most flatland locations ranging from 30 to 34. Hillsides will be above freezing. The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 2 to 4 degrees warmer. This will be the last frost night we’ll see for several days as a moisture laden and mild storm will pound central California Saturday night through Monday morning. Unsettled conditions will continue through Wednesday evening as the storm moves down the coast then inland to our south.
The next possible chance of frost after tonight will likely be a week from Sunday or Monday as the possibly last and colder weather system moves through.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Saturday morning/November 30