December 10, 2019
Summary: Conditions are quite variable as of 1:00pm. Visalia, Lemoore, and Hanford are all reporting a low overcast based at 300 feet while Bakersfield has a high overcast with Madera reporting generally clear skies and a temperature of 57. The freezing level is quite high again, standing at around 11,000 feet so there’s plenty of mild air aloft. Off shore, a weak trough of low pressure will spread light showers into northern California later tonight and into Wednesday with generally variable amounts of mid and high level clouds over central California. A flat zone of high pressure will stretch from off of Baja and southern California to well out over the Pacific Ocean Thursday into Friday. The storm track will run west to east into the Pacific Northwest, spreading showers over possibly the northern ¼ of California. By late Friday night and Saturday morning, the high will begin to buckle, allowing a rapidly weakening cold front to move down the valley with just a small chance of light showers, mainly over the Sierra Nevada, with perhaps a few sprinkles from Fresno County north.
A new low will develop over eastern Nevada and Utah Sunday night and Monday. This will drive colder air down the back side of the low and into California. Theoretically, this would lower dew points and could possibly lead to some frost nights Monday and Tuesday. However, if low clouds and fog remain entrenched on the valley floor, above freezing conditions will prevail. We will simply have to tweak this forecast as we approach the time frame.
Both of the medium range models we look at and study are suggesting an active pattern between the 18 and Christmas Eve for possible periods of precipitation.
Forecast: Areas of dense fog or low clouds tonight and Wednesday morning. Local areas of drizzle are possible later tonight. becoming partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon. Areas of fog and low clouds Thursday night and again Friday night, otherwise it will be partly cloudy Thursday and Friday. Mostly cloudy Saturday with a slight chance of a few sprinkles from late Friday night through midday Saturday from Fresno County north. Generally partly cloudy Sunday through Tuesday with fog ranging from patchy to areas of fog and low clouds each morning.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/60/38/63 | Reedley 37/59/38/61 | Dinuba 36/59/37/59 | |
| Porterville 37/61/38/63 | Lindsay 36/60/37/62 | Delano 39/61/41/63 | |
| Bakersfield 43/63/46/64 | Taft 46/62/47/64 | Arvin 41/63/43/66 | |
| Lamont 40/63/45/65 | Pixley 39/61/41/63 | Tulare 38/59/41/61 | |
| Woodlake 37/61/39/63 | Hanford 39/61/39/63 | Orosi 36/60/37/61 | |
Winds: Winds through Friday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: We are still looking at later Friday night and Saturday morning for the next very minimal chance of rain. This afternoon modeling is even weaker on this chance for precipitation and shows just trace amounts from Fresno County northward with measurable rain confined to the southern Sierra Nevada. Dry weather will return Saturday afternoon and continue through at least Tuesday of next week. Models are showing the possibility of an active pattern beginning about Wednesday of next week with the two week model indicating quite an active pattern between the 19th and Christmas Eve. In fact, that two week model shows a high risk of precipitation for the northern half of the state.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through Sunday morning. There is a chance of at least low 30s in some areas Monday and Tuesday as a low develops over the Great Basin, spreading in colder air aloft. A relatively strong off shore flow is projected to develop which, in theory, could mix drier air down onto the valley floor. At any rate, this will be no freeze situation but could actually lower temperatures to more seasonal values for mid December.
Next report: Wednesday morning/December 11