December 10, 2019
Summary: For the second morning in a row, every location from the base of the Tehachapi Mountains to the lower Sacramento Valley is reporting ½ mile visibility or less with most locations at ¼ mile visibility or less. It’s a bit of a tricky forecast for the next 24 hours. The layer of cold moist air is now entrenched on the valley floor, nothing new for December. Even so, a weak trough of low pressure will move through tonight and early Wednesday morning. There could be enough m ixing to squeeze a bit of drizzle from the low cloud deck. This could actually lead to some clearing by Wednesday afternoon.
From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will be centered off the northern Baja coast, stretching well out over the Pacific Ocean while a series of storms moves into the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California. We could see variable amounts of mid and high level clouds Thursday and Friday, potentially inhibiting the redevelopment of fog and low clouds. Even so, areas of fog and low clouds are certainly possible for Thursday and Friday mornings.
A stronger low will dig southward Friday night through Saturday evening, possibly spreading some light showers into central California. Models are quite inconclusive on this. It’s also possible that an inside slider, which is a low pressure system digging southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska then into the Great Basin, may result in a colder air mass overspreading California. Theoretically, it’s possible overnight low temperatures beginning Monday morning could lower to near freezing in the colder locations. For now, no serious freeze threat is anticipated, however I do want to carefully monitory this pattern for the possibility, and that’s all it is, of marginally below freezing temperatures for a time next week.
Later next week, the pattern may become active again as some models are indicating the storm track will return to California.
Forecast: Widespread dense fog this morning lifting into a low overcast this afternoon through Thursday morning. Light drizzle is possible tonight through early Wednesday morning. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Friday with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog. Mostly cloudy Friday night through Saturday night with a small chance of light showers late Friday night through Saturday evening. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through late Tuesday with areas of fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/39/60/37/63 | Reedley 58/38/59/38/60 | Dinuba 57/37/58/38/61 | |
| Porterville 57/38/60/36/62 | Lindsay 57/37/60/35/62 | Delano 58/40/60/38/62 | |
| Bakersfield 58/41/62/45/64 | Taft 60/44/62/46/63 | Arvin 58/39/60/38/63 | |
| Lamont 59/41/61/40/63 | Pixley 57/37/60/38/63 | Tulare 57/38/59/36/62 | |
| Woodlake 58/38/60/37/62 | Hanford 58/39/60/40/63 | Orosi 57/37/60/36/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Patchy fog/mostly cloudy 42/63 |
Saturday
Small chance of showers 46/60 |
Sunday
Mostly cloudy 40/53 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 33/56 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 32/58 |
Two Week Outlook: December 16 through December 22: This model is indicating an increasing chance of precipitation will occur during this period. Evidently, a storm or storm systems could arrive from the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in below average temperatures.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: The next chance of rain, small as it may be, will arrive late Friday night through Saturday. a weak cold front will move down the valley in association with a fairly cold low pressure system moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California. As of now, I’m leaning towards dry conditions, but some models continue to indicate the possible rain line may extend as far south as the Kern County mountains. Dry weather will return Sunday through Tuesday. Medium range models are indicating the possibility of an active pattern return by sometime late next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will remain above freezing for the remainder of the week. Over the weekend, however, a cold front will move down the valley with even a small chance of light showers Saturday. behind this system, another low will dive into the Great Basin as an inside slider, spreading a colder air mass in behind the cold front and possibly scouring out the valley. Dew points could drop to the point where marginally below freezing temperatures could occur. This is by no means a freeze pattern, but one which could lower temperatures to near seasonal if not marginally below for a few days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 75%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 70%/100%
Actual Humidity range December 9, 2019: Delano, 100%/81% Porterville, 98%/83%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .21, Parlier .19, Blackwell Corner .23, Arvin .32, Orange Cove .25, Porterville .24, Delano .24. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 55, Blackwell 57, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 74/26. Average Temperatures: 56/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 480 -190
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 53.9- +8.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.47 season. or +.36. Month to Date: 1.75 +1.34
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.58, or +.39. Month to Date: .51 +.26
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 189, Parlier 247, Arvin 130, Shafter 170, Stratford 186, Delano 210, Lindcove 200, Porterville 339
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:01 Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 56 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 59 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1522 / 56 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1521 / 56 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.90 127 3.87 126 3.08 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.78 70 3.05 120 2.54 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.52 199 2.69 119 2.27 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.90 81 2.42 103 2.36 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.47 117 1.92 91 2.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.75 102 1.71 99 1.72 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.58 133 1.20 101 1.19 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.06 107 1.31 132 0.99 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.09 165 3.87 156 2.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.70 225 2.84 136 2.09 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.68 110 1.95 80 2.44 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/December 10