December 11, 2019
Summary: As of 1:00pm, Visalia, Lemoore, Fresno, and Madera were each only in the 40s, locked under a low overcast based at between 3000 and 6000 feet. The sun has broken through over the valley portion of Kern County where Bakersfield was 57 degrees and Porterville up a bit to the north was at 61. Satellite imagery shows a trail of cloud cover streaking across the Pacific Ocean then moving onshore over Oregon and the northern 2/3 of California. Light precipitation was occurring from a Stockton/Tahoe line north and will continue to do so on and off into Thursday before the rain line migrates further north again Friday.
Temperatures on the valley floor again Thursday and Friday will be governed by the amount of fog and low clouds. These systems passing to our north are just a bit too weak to really stir the muck out of the bottom 1,000 feet of the atmosphere, thus the fog is persistent. However, on the flip side, where it has cleared it may be more difficult for fog to reform on the ground due to higher clouds above. As you can see from my chair, it’s a bit tricky.
Later Friday night and Saturday, a weak cold front will move through central California with a small chance of light showers, mainly along the Sierra Nevada and possibly the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. The air mass behind this system is somewhat colder, but latest models indicate it’s not quite as cold as earlier expected. We could see colder locations down into the 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings, which is more or less average for this time of year, anyway.
The next chance of rain may have to wait until Wednesday of next week when a low will approach the northern California coast. On paper, anyway, this system would have enough energy to scour out the lowest levels of the atmosphere temporarily riding the valley of its fog and low clouds. As we look towards the latter part of next week and the following weekend, models still point towards a major winter storm about the 22 and 23. For now, the Christmas holiday and a few days after appear dry and possibly cold. But if this afternoon’s models are a good clue, temperatures won’t be cold enough to keep growers busy.
Forecast: A combination of low clouds with higher clouds above tonight north of Kern County. Partly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County tonight with areas of fog forming late tonight. variable cloudiness Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday with areas of fog and low clouds forming later Thursday night and Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness Friday night leading to a small chance of light showers Saturday and Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday after patchy morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear to partly cloudy with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night leading to a chance of showers Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 42/59/44/62 | Reedley 42/63/45/63 | Dinuba 41/62/44/63 | |
| Porterville 41/64/43/64 | Lindsay 40/63/43/63 | Delano 44/65/47/65 | |
| Bakersfield 48/66/49/65 | Taft 48/64/50/64 | Arvin 43/67/47/66 | |
| Lamont 44/65/47/65 | Pixley 43/64/45/63 | Tulare 41/62/44/63 | |
| Woodlake 42/63/44/64 | Hanford 43/65/44/63 | Orosi 41/62/44/63 | |
Winds: Winds through Saturday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Pieces of energy will continue to move from west to east off the eastern Pacific and into northern California tonight and Thursday. There’s even a chance of measurable rain in the Sierra Nevada down to Yosemite with sprinkles from Merced County northward in the valley. The storm track will jog a little further north Friday and Friday night. a cold front will move through central California Saturday for a minimal chance of light showers, mainly over the Sierra Nevada, with a slight chance as far south as the Kern County mountains. If measurable rain is recorded, it would be no m ore than a few hundredths. Dry weather will return after Saturday evening, continuing through at least Tuesday night. it looks like our next legitimate chance of rain will be the middle of next week when some models indicate a low just west of the Monterey Bay area would spread showers over the district. After Thursday, a few days of dry weather will return. Some models are still hinting at a major winter storm arriving about the 22. It’s much too far off for any accuracy on this. For the second day in a row, the two week model is indicating the greatest possibility of rain anywhere in the lower 48 will be over the northern half of California.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees each night through at least Sunday morning and possibly longer. Models continue to indicate a colder air mass will move in during the second half of the weekend. information is pointing at some modification, but they do indicate lows well down into the 30s in at least the colder locations Monday and Tuesday mornings. That would more or less be average for the date, anyway. One model continues to show a cold and wet system about the 22 followed by a considerably colder air mass. I must emphasize this doesn’t look like a critical air mass at all, just one that would result in some frost.
Next report: Thursday morning/December 12