December 14, 2019
Summary: A weak cold front moved through central California during the early morning hours accompanied by a spattering of light showers. So far, no location on the valley floor has exceeded .05. Strong lift along the Sierra Nevada has resulted in anywhere from .30 to .90 over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada from the Tule River Basin northward. Doppler radar at this hour indicates widely scattered light showers which will end by midday. The upper low associated with the passing front will clip northern California tonight then will move rapidly into the Great Basin Sunday. There will be a minor chance of light showers along the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains later tonight and early Sunday.
A ridge of upper level high pressure will begin to make its move inland Sunday afternoon and will continue its dominance through Tuesday. The air mass now moving in is colder, despite the mild conditions this morning. overnight lows beginning Monday morning will fall into the low to mid 30s in many areas with upper 20s possible in the typical cold spots. More in the frost section below.
Winds will begin to pick up out of the northwest later today as that cooler air mass spreads in both at the surface and aloft. In fact, doppler radar above Hanford shows winds between 3,000 and 6,000 feet are out of the northwest at 15 and 20 MPH. areas of fog will become prevalent late tonight and Sunday morning in areas that clear. However, I’m anticipating a considerable amount of upslope clouds will develop along the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains so clouds may linger through much of Sunday in portions of the eastern and southern parts of the valley.
Upper level high pressure will begin to give way Tuesday night ahead of an approaching low off the Golden Gate by early Wednesday morning. for several days now, models have had a difficult time developing a track for this system. If there’s any consensus it’s that it will move through the region late Wednesday night and Thursday morning with a chance of light showers. The next ridge of high pressure will follow Thursday through Friday then a deep trough of low pressure will begin to stretch southward from the Gulf of Alaska to central California by next Saturday.
There may be two possible cold fronts moving through central California between the 21st and 24th. There is also very little consensus for the pattern between Christmas and New Year’s. Generally speaking, most models show a generally dry but possibly very foggy pattern, something we’re quite familiar with in the valley.
Forecast: Overcast with a chance of light showers this morning. mostly to partly cloudy this afternoon. Mostly cloudy tonight and early Sunday with a small chance of light showers near the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains. Mostly cloudy later Sunday night through Monday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday with areas of fog and low clouds Tuesday morning. increasing cloudiness Tuesday night leading to a chance of light showers late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Friday with areas of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a slight chance of showers Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/37/53/31/54 | Reedley 58/38/53/32/54 | Dinuba 57/37/53/31/53 | |
| Porterville 57/38/53/32/55 | Lindsay 58/37/53/31/54 | Delano 57/39/53/33/56 | |
| Bakersfield 57/41/52/38/57 | Taft 59/41/52/38/57 | Arvin 57/41/52/33/57 | |
| Lamont 58/40/52/40/57 | Pixley 58/39/53/32/54 | Tulare 57/37/53/31/53 | |
| Woodlake 58/38/53/31/54 | Hanford 58/38/53/33/54 | Orosi 58/36/53/31/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 31/57 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 42/59 |
Thursday
AM fog/partly cloudy 42/55 |
Friday
AM fog/partly cloudy 33/60 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 41/59 |
Two Week Outlook: December 21 through December 27: This model is showing the possibility of well above average precipitation for central and northern California. It’s possible a low center may develop off the northern California coast with a moist west or southwest flow into central California. Typically, this is a good precipitation producer. This pattern would also be conducive for below average temperatures.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest through tonight at 8 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible, mainly from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Sunday will continue mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH, diminishing by Sunday evening. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, scattered light showers were occurring from Fresno County southward. These showers will end from northwest to southeast and will end in all areas by midday. There will be another slight chance of light showers along the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains and foothills later tonight and Sunday as a weak wave of low pressure moves through. Rainfall amounts this far have been scant on the valley floor. Mettler, Bakersfield, Tulare, and Madera have recorded .01. Porterville has tallied .05, Visalia .02, and Exeter .02. Fresno has picked up .03. most other locations have recorded just trace amounts.
The foothill and mountain areas have actually done pretty well with amounts ranging from .33 to just under an inch from the Tule River north.
Dry weather will return Sunday and last through at least Tuesday. A weakening low pressure system will move through late Wednesday night and Tuesday morning for a chance of light showers, however models indicate this system is a shadow of what had been earlier portrayed.
Wednesday night through Friday night look dry with possibly an active pattern beginning a week from today with a chance of rain at any given time through Christmas Eve. Most models for the period Christmas to New Year’s look dry at the moment.
Frost Discussion: All locations will again be above freezing tonight. it’s possible coldest locations, if skies clear, could drop down to 34 to 36 or so with most locations in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. widespread low to mid 30s are anticipated Monday and Tuesday mornings. Coldest locations Monday could drop down to 28 to 31 under ideal conditions. That’s assuming fog and low clouds don’t take over. On Tuesday morning, the potential for river bottom and similar low spots to drop down to 27 to 29 degrees is there. Most typical flat terrain type locations will generally range between 30 and 34 degrees.
Above freezing conditions will return Wednesday morning due to cloud cover and the chance for showers. The flow aloft behind this system will be out of the west for above freezing conditions Thursday and Friday mornings. For now, it looks like clouds will increase Saturday, maintaining above freezing conditions possibly through Christmas morning if current models are accurate.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Dew Points, mid to upper 40s Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 65%/100%
Actual Humidity range December 13, 2019: Delano, 100%/51% Porterville, 97%/48%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .18, Parlier .20, Blackwell Corner .25, Arvin .30, Orange Cove .25, Porterville .29, Delano .28. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 54, Blackwell 57, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 74/21. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 534 -217
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 53.1- +7.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.47 season. or +.16. Month to Date: 1.75 +1.14
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.58, or +.27. Month to Date: .51 +.14
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 203, Parlier 265, Arvin 157, Shafter 189, Stratford 207, Delano 234, Lindcove 248, Porterville 398
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:04 Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
: …Valley…
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 66 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1547 / 66 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 66 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON T 4.00 120 3.87 116 3.34 14.06
MODESTO T 2.78 100 3.05 110 2.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.52 186 2.69 111 2.43 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.90 75 2.42 95 2.55 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.47 107 1.92 83 2.31 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.75 95 1.71 92 1.85 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.58 121 1.20 92 1.31 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.06 98 1.31 121 1.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.09 151 3.87 143 2.71 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.70 202 2.84 122 2.33 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.68 100 1.95 72 2.69 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon/December 14