December 17, 2019
Summary: The 7:00am observation at Bakersfield reported a temperature of 52, a dew point of 9, with a relative humidity of 9%. Winds are out of the southeast at 20, gusting to 30 MPH at Bakersfield. Winds at Lamont have gusted to 51 MPH. More wind information is detailed in the wind discussion below.
The current barometric pressure in Salt Lake City is 30.58 inches of mercury while at San Francisco the measurement is 30.23. Pressures are even considerably lower just off shore, creating a strong pressure gradient which is responsible for the strong, gusty, southeast winds off the Tehachapi Mountains and onto the Kern County portion of the valley floor. These winds may actually strengthen later today then begin to subside, but not until later tonight as the low moves on shore into northern California.
North of Kern County, winds are light to calm as a 13,000 foot barrier to the east called the Sierra Nevada acts as a buffer and winds are squeezed down the lower mountains of Kern County.
Light showers will spread into northern California tonight, possibly as far south as Merced County, but just variable cloudiness can be expected over the central and south valley. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build inland Wednesday afternoon and dominate our pattern through Friday night. the main challenge will be areas of night and morning fog and low clouds with hazy afternoon clearing.
A deepening trough of low pressure still shows up nicely on models, eventually stretching from the Gulf of Alaska to southern California. It’s possible three disturbances could move out of the trough. One will spread precipitation over the area possibly as early as Sunday, but Sunday night and Monday appear more likely. Another will follow Tuesday. It’s interesting to note that the main energy to all this will move through southern California. The third and final storm will move right along the California coast Christmas Day. Precipitation chances will be determined by the placement of the main body of low pressure. Most models show it moving southern then eastward through northern Baja the day after Christmas.
We’ll then have several days of dry weather between the 26th and the 29th.
Forecast: Variable high cloudiness through tonight. expect strong gusty east to southeast winds in Kern County with light winds elsewhere. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Saturday morning. partly cloudy Saturday afternoon and night. increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of rain Sunday night. periods of rain Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/33/58/33/55 | Reedley 57/34/59/33/55 | Dinuba 56/33/57/32/54 | |
| Porterville 58/34/59/33/55 | Lindsay 58/33/59/32/56 | Delano 59/41/59/35/56 | |
| Bakersfield 64/45/61/40/56 | Taft 63/42/61/41/55 | Arvin 64/48/61/38/56 | |
| Lamont 63/45/61/38/56 | Pixley 59/34/59/34/55 | Tulare 56/34/59/33/55 | |
| Woodlake 58/34/59/32/55 | Hanford 58/36/59/34/55 | Orosi 57/32/59/32/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
AM fog/mostly clear 33/56 |
Saturday
AM fog/partly cloudy 33/58 |
Sunday
PM rain possible 42/59 |
Monday
Periods of rain 41/56 |
Christmas Eve
Periods of rain 43/56 |
Two Week Outlook: Christmas through New Year’s Eve: This model shows a cold weather pattern setting up with above average precipitation over southern California and the Desert Southwest. Temperatures under this regime will sink to below average values.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: The following are peak wind gusts in Kern County as of 6:00am: Bakersfield 30, Lamont 51, Kern Canyon Road 31, Branch Road 30, CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine 51, Mettler 36.
Wind gusts to near 70 MPH have been measured at remote weather stations over the Tehachapi Mountains. Strong differences in pressure between the Great Basin and an approaching low pressure system off the northern California coast will result in the continuation of strong winds, possibly in excess of 50 MPH with possibly stronger gusts near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains through late this evening. These winds will quickly die off after midnight as the low moves on shore and pressure differences equalize. Wind gusts in excess of 30 MPH are possible as far north as Oildale. Generally, north of the Kern County line, winds will be at or less than 10 MPH and out of the east or southeast through tonight. winds Wednesday through Friday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather to continue through Saturday night and quite possibly Sunday. The chance for precipitation will seriously begin to increase Sunday night with a chance of rain at any given location Sunday night through Christmas day. Some models are showing the possibility of three disturbances moving out of a trough of low pressure stretching from the Gulf of Alaska to southern California. Interestingly enough, the bulk of the energy of all this moves inland through southern California. One system is projected to move southward just off shore Christmas Day may move inland through northern Baja on the 26th. The bottom line is, there will be a chance of rain at any given time from Sunday night through Christmas Day and possibly into the day after. Most models project dry weather from the 27 with possibly another round of rain at the end of the year.
Frost Discussion: Navalencia dropped to 28 degrees overnight as of 6:00am, Sanger 29, Fowler 29, and 29 at McFarland. Most other locations north of Kern County were in the low to mid 30s. temperatures in Kern County were actually in the lower 50s due to strong wind conditions.
Variable higher level clouds will keep most, if not all, locations above freezing tonight. it’s possible clearing by sunrise may allow the very coldest locations to dip into the lower 30s. widespread low to mid 30s can be expected Thursday through Saturday mornings as upper level high pressure caps a layer of relatively cold air on the valley floor.
On Sunday morning, and on through the 26th, all locations will be above freezing due to an unsettled weather pattern with periodic chances of rain. For now, the pattern between Christmas and New Year’s does not appear threatening as all of the models in one way, shape, or form keep cold air masses to our north and east.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Single digits to near fifteen. Humidity values ranging from 45%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 10%/50%
Actual Humidity range December 16, 2019: Delano, 100%/50% Porterville, 99%/48%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .29, Parlier .30, Blackwell Corner .30, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .32, Delano .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 55, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 583 -231
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 52.2- +7.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.50 season. or +.03. Month to Date: 1.78 +1.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.61, or +.19. Month to Date: .53 +.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 227, Parlier 291, Arvin 168, Shafter 216, Stratford 234, Delano 266, Lindcove 284, Porterville 438
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:06 Sunset: 4:45 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DHM / 56 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 57 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 57 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 53 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 59 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 54 / 40 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / 37 / 0.00 //
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.05 114 4.52 127 3.55 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 2.79 94 3.68 124 2.97 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.53 176 3.11 121 2.57 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.91 70 2.56 94 2.73 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.50 101 1.93 78 2.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.77 89 1.71 86 1.99 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.60 113 1.20 85 1.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.06 93 1.31 115 1.14 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.12 143 4.42 153 2.88 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.70 187 3.20 127 2.52 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.68 93 2.02 70 2.88 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/December 17