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Forecast

December 18, 2019/report

December 18, 2019

Summary: The strong winds in Kern County yesterday have generally died off.  The only exception I could find was right at the bottom of the Grapevine where winds were still out of the east at 30, gusting to 46 MPH.  most other locations are reporting winds of less than 10 MPH.  Over the next few hours, the winds in the extreme south valley will end.  The low pressure system which in part was responsible for yesterday’s wind event in Kern County is just now moving on shore just north of the San Francisco Bay Area.  There have been a few sprinkles from Fresno County northward, but nothing measurable on the valley floor.  Skies will begin to clear this afternoon as the low pulls off to the northeast and upper level high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific Ocean, dominating our pattern through Friday night.  areas of morning fog and low clouds will reenter the picture Thursday through Saturday mornings with areas of frost, as is discussed below.

 

A major shift in the pattern will occur over the weekend.  The upper high will shift into the interior west, allowing a trough to stretch southward from the Gulf of Alaska and eventually as far south as northern Baja.  The first storm to move out of this trough will spread precipitation over the area Sunday.  One  model shows a deep surface low off the central coast which could, in theory, result in another round of strong winds in Kern County.  Other models,  not so much.

 

Periods of rain will affect central California through Tuesday with even a chance of showers Christmas Eve through the 26th, depending on  model of choice.  The amount of precipitation between Sunday and Christmas Day is very much in question.  Most models do not  indicate this will be a heavy precipitation producer as the majority of models show these systems sliding southward just off shore, which is where the main dynamics will be.  They’re projected by those models to move inland through southern California or even Baja.

 

After next Thursday, a large area of upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific, deflecting any potential storms well to the north for the possibility of extensive fog and low clouds with afternoon clearing.

 

Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy this morning.  Clearing by midday.  Mostly clear skies tonight through Friday night with areas  of night and morning fog and low clouds.  Partly cloudy Saturday. increasing clouds Saturday night with an increasing chance of rain at times Sunday through Monday night.  a chance of showers Tuesday through Christmas Day.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 59/31/59/33/60 Reedley 58/32/59/34/60 Dinuba 58/31/59/33/59
Porterville 60/32/60/33/61 Lindsay 60/31/61/32/61 Delano 60/33/61/34/62
Bakersfield 61/40/62/41/65 Taft 61/35/61/38/64 Arvin 61/34/61/35/65
Lamont 60/34/61/35/65 Pixley 59/32/60/34/61 Tulare 58/31/59/32/59
Woodlake 58/32/59/33/60 Hanford 60/34/59/35/60 Orosi 58/31/59/32/60

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

AM fog/partly cloudy

34/61

Sunday

Periods of rain

42/61

Monday

Periods of rain

43/54

Christmas Eve

Chance of showers

38/54

Christmas

Chance of showers

37/54

 

Two Week Outlook: Christmas through New Year’s Eve:  This model shows a cold weather pattern setting up with above average precipitation over southern California and the Desert Southwest.  Temperatures under this regime will sink to below average values.

 

December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average.  This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S.  The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.

 

January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S.  There are two small notations for below average precipitation.  The first is over Louisiana.  The second is over northern and central California.  Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH today.  Winds tonight through Friday night will be generally  less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Saturday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH.  There is a chance, and for now that’s all it is…just a chance…of another round of strong winds over the valley portion of Kern County Sunday and Sunday night.  the European model shows a strong surface low about 200 miles west of the central coast with relatively strong high pressure over the interior west.  Other models indicate the pressure gradient will not be significant enough to produce these downslope winds.  Even so, it would be wise to watch the latest forecasts to see how these computer brains sort things out.

 

Rain:  Dry weather will prevail through Saturday night.  the chance of rain will begin to increase Sunday as the first in a series of storms moves out of a trough of low pressure and into California.  Most of the models still indicate that the highest chance of precipitation will actually be over southern California.  Even so, periods of at least light rain can be expected anytime from Sunday through Christmas Eve.  Timing of various impulses moving on shore is up for debate at this time.  A new low could slide southward just off shore the day after Christmas, although there are still significant  model differences.  It does appear, however, that we will see dry weather after the 26th and through at least the 29th.

 

Frost Discussion:  the strong off shore flow of the last 48 hours has lowered dew points down into the 30s.  In Kern County, they’re still in the teens but they will rise and become flush with the rest of the valley over the next 12 to 18 hours.  With a drier air mass in place, the atmosphere will have a better chance of radiating heat skyward under mostly clear skies tonight through Friday night with widespread low to mid 30s.  Riverbottom and like locations will chill down to 28 to 30 degrees or so each night.  considering these are the very shortest days of the year, daytime highs will be about as comfortable as you’ll ever see this time of year with highs near the 60 degree mark.

 

An active pattern will begin during the second half of the weekend and will continue right through Christmas, resulting in above freezing conditions.  After Christmas, we could see at least a few days where frost may be more of a concern as a chilly northwest flow slides down the eastern side of high pressure off shore.  The good news is, for now there’s not a pattern showing up that would result in a critical freeze situation.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

29

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

31

Mcfarland

30

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

31

Lindsay

30

Exeter

30

Famoso

32

Madera

31

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

33

Orosi

30

Orange cove

30

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

27

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

31

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

31

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

31

Kite Road South

34

Kite Road North

31

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s.  Kern: Mid to upper 20s..  Humidity values ranging from 45%/100% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/75%

Actual Humidity range December 17, 2019: Delano, 99%/37% Porterville, 99%/49%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .32, Parlier .31, Blackwell Corner .34, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .33, Delano .34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Blackwell 56, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 49

Record Temperatures: 71/26. Average Temperatures: 54/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 603 -232

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for December so far: 51.8- +6.7

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 2.50 season. or -.03.  Month to Date: 1.78 +.95

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  1.61, or +.16.  Month to Date: .53 +.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 239,  Parlier 305,  Arvin 184, Shafter 225, Stratford 248, Delano 280, Lindcove 300, Porterville 456

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:07  Sunset: 4:45 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:39

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  58 /  35 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  59 /  39 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  58 /  32 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  58 /  32 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1500 /  65 /  43 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  57 /  34 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  57 /  34 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1549 /  61 /  35 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    4.05   112    5.00   138     3.62    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    2.79    92    4.20   138     3.04    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    4.53   173    3.56   136     2.62    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    1.91    68    2.85   102     2.79    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    2.50    99    2.27    90     2.53    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    1.77    86    1.80    88     2.05    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.60   111    1.20    83     1.44     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.06    91    1.31   112     1.17     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    4.12   140    4.47   152     2.95    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    4.70   181    3.52   136     2.59    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.68    91    2.29    78     2.95    13.95

 

 

Next report: Wednesday afternoon/December 18