December 19, 2019
Summary: By the standards of the latter part of December, you could certainly describe this as a beautiful afternoon. As of 1:00pm, temperatures had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. most locations will end up a good 6 to 9 degrees above average. Even milder weather can be expected Friday and Saturday. the ridge of high pressure will firm up a bit Friday as it upwells ahead of a developing trough of low pressure which by Saturday will stretch from British Columbia southwestward to well off the central coast. Clouds will begin to increase Saturday as a southwest flow sweeps in from the eastern Pacific underneath the trough. Downslope winds late Saturday and Sunday could push temperatures to near the 70 degree mark over the valley portion of Kern County.
Models are still indicating a steep pressure gradient will exist between the interior west and off shore northern California Saturday night and Sunday morning. this may produce another round of strong, gusty winds…this time out of the south to southeast…over the valley portion of Kern County and possibly some strong winds along the far west side of the valley. These winds will die off later Sunday as the first of possibly three low pressure systems moves in. the chance of rain will begin to increase Sunday and will become likely Sunday night through Monday night. latest models indicate a fairly robust low will be just off the northern California coast Monday afternoon and will race quickly southeastward.
The chance of rain Christmas Eve and Christmas Day appears to be less, however with impulses moving through the trough of low pressure, there is a chance of rain anytime from Sunday through the day after Christmas. There could be a dry day or two sandwiched between weather systems.
This will be a cold pattern as the origins of these storms will be in the northeast Pacific. It will also be an active pattern with periodic precipitation.
Some of the medium range models for the 27th through the end of the year have reverted back to showing an active pattern with possibly more rain. For now, however, this just deserves further study as it’s a flip flop from model runs of the past couple of days.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Friday night with patchy late night and morning clouds and fog. Increasing cloudiness Saturday. mostly cloudy Saturday night. periods of rain Sunday through Monday night. a chance of showers Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with a slight chance of showers Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/61/35/63 | Reedley 33/62/35/63 | Dinuba 31/60/33/62 | |
| Porterville 33/61/35/64 | Lindsay 31/61/35/64 | Delano 33/62/36/65 | |
| Bakersfield 39/64/41/67 | Taft 39/63/40/68 | Arvin 35/64/37/67 | |
| Lamont 35/64/37/67 | Pixley 32/63/36/64 | Tulare 31/60/34/62 | |
| Woodlake 32/60/34/62 | Hanford 34/61/35/62 | Orosi 31/61/34/63 | |
Winds: Winds tonight and Friday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds later Friday night will be out of the southeast at 4 to 8 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH Saturday. Winds Saturday night and Sunday morning in Kern County will be out of the south to southeast at 15 to 35 MPH with stronger gusts. Local gusts exceeding 50 MPH are possible near the bottom of the Grapevine and locally near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Winds gusts in excess of 40 MPH are possible as far north as Bakersfield. Also, gusty southeast winds are possible along the far west side with gusts possibly exceeding 40 MPH. Elsewhere north of Kern County, winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday afternoon will decrease to 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The chance of rain will begin to increase rapidly Sunday as the first in a series of cold low pressure systems moves into northern and central California. The first of two systems will arrive Sunday with a stronger system moving in Monday. The main trough of low pressure will remain stretched over the western U.S. and off shore all the way through the 26th, so there will be a chance of rain on any given day from Sunday through Thursday. Rainfall amounts will be fairly light during the Sunday event, but heavier Monday and Monday night as a stronger system moves through. All of these systems are generally cold and do not have a pineapple connection associated with them. With that in mind, rainfall amounts will generally be light to moderate but this is an evolving pattern.
Frost Discussion: As of 1:00pm, dew points were generally in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. that’s significantly higher than 24 hours ago. Air temperatures will exceed 60 this afternoon. Even so, skies will be relatively clear tonight with widespread low to mid 30s anticipated. Coldest locations tonight will drop down to 29 to 31 degrees with most locations between 32 and 36.
On Saturday morning, most if not all locations will be above freezing. I’m basing that on the assumption that skies will begin to increase after midnight Friday night. if not, then coldest locations will drop into the lower 30s.
The pattern for Sunday through Thursday of next week still appears to be an active one with periodic chances of rain. However, any given night which has generally clear skies could see temperatures down into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. for now, this appears unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility.
Some models are reverting back to a possibly active pattern beginning the 27th and into the New Year. For now, we’ll take that with a grain of salt as it is a flip flop from projections of the past few days.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Friday morning/December 20