December 23, 2019
Summary: Rainfall amounts so far from the current storm have been fairly light, ranging from around .10 to about .25 around the valley. As of the time of this writing, Doppler radar was indicating scattered light showers were falling over various locations in the San Joaquin Valley. Doppler radar over southern California is lit up like the proverbial Christmas tree as the cold front is slowly moving on shore with heavy precipitation currently falling from Los Angeles to San Diego. Some locations over the Santa Barbara and Ventura County mountains have picked up as much as two to three inches of rain. This storm does have some interesting characteristics. As the main center of cold low pressure moves through extreme southern California tonight, models are showing a slug of precipitation rotating around the northern rim of the low, spreading precipitation over the southern half of the central valley. Some of the high resolution models are indicating anywhere from another .25 to possibly even .50 south of Fresno County will be possible. That may be overly optimistic, but we’ll see how it goes over the next 12 hours or so.
Christmas Eve day and night will greet us with dry weather and just generally partly cloudy skies. The next low pressure system has its origins over the extreme northeast Pacific and will slide rapidly southward off the central coast Wednesday night and Thursday morning. the main dynamics with this system will remain off shore. Even so, showers will spread inland Christmas afternoon and will continue on and off through Thursday. This is a cold system which will not be carrying significant amounts of water, so rainfall amounts will be generally light.
Upper level high pressure will begin to shift inland Thursday night as the previous storm moves through northern Baja and southern California. As the high continues to build inland Friday and through the weekend, dry relatively stable weather will begin with increasing amounts of night and morning fog.
Winds at the surface over the weekend will become off shore with a north/northeast flow aloft. This means relatively cold air will remain in place over central California. Frosty nights are likely, possibly beginning as early as Friday morning with below freezing temperatures possible through the end of the year. One model, though, continues to insist a low will drop either just off shore or over California New Year’s Eve.
Forecast: Scattered showers this morning. periods of showers later this afternoon and tonight. Partly cloudy Christmas Eve through Christmas Eve night. increasing cloudiness Christmas morning with periods of light showers Christmas afternoon and at times through Thursday. A slight chance of showers Thursday night. mostly to partly cloudy later Thursday night through Friday morning. partly cloudy Friday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Monday with areas of night and morning clouds and fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 52/39/54/38/53 | Reedley 53/40/54/38/52 | Dinuba 51/39/52/38/52 | |
| Porterville 53/40/54/39/53 | Lindsay 53/39/54/38/53 | Delano 52/41/54/39/53 | |
| Bakersfield 54/43/54/41/54 | Taft 50/41/52/41/53 | Arvin 54/41/54/41/54 | |
| Lamont 53/43/53/41/54 | Pixley 52/40/53/39/53 | Tulare 51/39/52/38/52 | |
| Woodlake 51/39/54/38/52 | Hanford 53/40/53/39/53 | Orosi 52/39/54/38/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Showers likely 38/51 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 33/53 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 31/53 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 31/54 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 31/53 |
Two Week Outlook: December 30 through January 5: This model is indicating high pressure will be shielding California from Pacific storms, so precipitation is unlikely. Temperatures should be pretty close to average.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the southeast at 8 to 12 MPH with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers through Tuesday. Winds later Christmas through Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The following are storm totals as of 6:30am: Bakersfield .13, Lamont .10, Mettler .09, Buttonwillow .28, Shafter .18, Delano .14, Stratford .13, Tulare .15, Porterville .12, Exeter .05, Visalia .14, Hanford .05, Lemoore .24, Huron .24, Five Points .42, Parlier .07, Fresno .18, Madera .23.
Showers will be fairly widely scattered this morning. High resolution models this morning are indicating a slug of moisture will be moving northward from southern California, affecting the southern half of the valley this afternoon and tonight. This is a bit of an odd scenario. If this happens, it could mean an additional .25 to .50, generally south of Madera County.
Dry weather will greet us Christmas Eve before the next chance of showers shows up the afternoon of Christmas Day through Thursday. The main dynamics of this storm will drop southward off shore. Still, the low should be close enough to drop light showers over the area with snow down to 3,000 feet. Most locations with this system will record no more than a tenth or two, at best.
Dry weather will return Thursday night and possibly continue for the remainder of the decade, though one model insists on a possible chance of rain New Year’s Eve.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday mornings. A cold weather system will move through Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening with light showers. As upper level high pressure builds off shore into the Pacific Northwest, a north/northeast flow aloft will develop Friday and through the weekend. This will transport relatively cold air into California. At the surface, an off shore flow will develop. Typically, this traps low level moisture on the valley floor as a warm air inversion develops. It is certainly possible fog and low clouds may become more of a factor as we move through the last week of the year. However, as we’ve learned in recent years, fog and low clouds are not as widespread as they once were.
Coldest locations Saturday and Sunday mornings could drop down to 27 to 29 degrees with most locations ranging from 29 to 33. However, if the fog does do its job, milder conditions could be expected.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 80%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 80%/100%
Actual Humidity range December 22, 2019: Delano, 93%/17% Porterville, 91%/31%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .33, Parlier .33, Blackwell Corner .39, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .37, Porterville .33, Delano .39. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 50, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 68/18. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 680 -260
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 51.3- +6.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.68 season. or -.17. Month to Date: 1.96 +.81
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.73, or +.11. Month to Date: .66 -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 277, Parlier 353, Arvin 246, Shafter 272, Stratford 293, Delano 331, Lindcove 359, Porterville 525
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 49 / 0.18 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 51 / 0.04 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 42 / 0.02 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1500 / 61 / 41 / 0.16 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 74 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 45 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 72 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.05 4.16 103 5.00 124 4.02 14.06
MODESTO 0.18 2.98 88 4.20 124 3.40 13.11
MERCED 0.02 4.58 157 3.56 122 2.92 12.50
MADERA 0.18 2.09 67 2.85 92 3.11 12.02
FRESNO 0.04 2.54 89 2.27 80 2.85 11.50
HANFORD 0.02 1.79 75 1.80 75 2.39 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.60 99 1.20 74 1.62 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.06 82 1.31 101 1.30 5.18
SALINAS 0.09 4.31 131 4.47 136 3.28 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.26 4.99 169 3.52 119 2.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.47 3.19 96 2.29 69 3.32 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/December 23