December 24, 2019
Summary: The last vestiges of the storm that brought fairly substantial amounts of precipitation to especially Kern and Tulare Counties have moved into the Sierra Nevada. In fact, the main area of low pressure has now moved into Arizona. A brief dry slot will occur for this Christmas Eve day and night. However, a major winter storm is racing southward parallel to the coast. The center of low pressure is located west of British Columbia and by Wednesday afternoon will be a few hundred miles west of San Francisco. By Thursday it will be just west of Santa Maria.
This storm is shaping up to be a major event for southern California, including Kern County. High resolution models are indicating an inch or more of water equivalent will be possible over the Kern County mountains from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Add to that the fact that this is a cold system, and unusually heavy snow will fall over the Tehachapi Mountains and other mountain ranges in southern California.
Light showers will spread over the remainder of the San Joaquin Valley north of the Kern County line later Christmas Day through Thursday. The precipitation will begin to taper off by Thursday evening as the low tracks through extreme southern California and northern Baja then moves into the Desert Southwest Friday.
Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build into the western United States over the weekend. The winds aloft between the exiting low and the incoming high will be out of the north/northeast, spreading relatively cold air into central California. This air mass will not originate in the polar regions, so even though frost will be likely over the weekend, critical temperatures are not in the forecast.
About the 30th, models place a possible low right over central California as we wind up 2019. Only one model suggests this, but has been trending in the same direction for the past few days so I believe it’s time to place a chance of showers in the forecast for next Monday and into New Year’s Eve.
Forecast: Areas of night and morning fog this morning then partly to mostly cloudy through tonight. the chance for light showers will begin to increase north of the Kern County line later Wednesday morning, continuing through Thursday. Rain is likely in Kern County Wednesday afternoon and at times through Thursday, possibly locally heavy at times. Mostly to partly cloudy at times Thursday night and Friday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a chance of rain Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/40/52/39/52 | Reedley 54/41/52/40/52 | Dinuba 53/39/51/39/51 | |
| Porterville 54/40/52/39/52 | Lindsay 53/39/52/38/51 | Delano 54/41/52/40/51 | |
| Bakersfield 53/41/54/42/50 | Taft 53/40/54/39/50 | Arvin 54/41/51/40/51 | |
| Lamont 53/41/52/41/51 | Pixley 53/40/52/39/52 | Tulare 53/39/52/38/51 | |
| Woodlake 53/39/52/39/52 | Hanford 54/41/52/40/52 | Orosi 53/39/52/38/52 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 33/51 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 31/53 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 30/54 |
Monday
PM rain possible 39/55 |
Tuesday
Chance of rain 41/53 |
Two Week Outlook: January 1 through January 7: This model is indicating high pressure will be shielding California from Pacific storms, so precipitation is unlikely. Temperatures should be pretty close to average.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds today will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature. Winds later tonight will be out of the southeast at 5 to 12 MPH. Winds Wednesday could be locally gusty and out of the east near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains, possibly exceeding 35 MPH. Otherwise winds will be out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, especially in Kern County and along the west side. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be light and variable with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, the only precipitation on Doppler radar are a few light showers over Tulare County which were moving into the Sierra Nevada. Outside of that, this Christmas Eve will be dry with dry weather expected tonight for Santa.
The chance of light showers will begin to increase again later Christmas Day north of Kern County through Thursday. Kern County will be on the northern edge of a major winter storm event for southern California. It’s possible upwards of .50 could fall on the valley floor south of the Kern County line with heavy snow over the Kern County mountains expected from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Generally no more than a tenth or two is expected north of the Kern County line.
Dry weather will prevail Thursday night and on through the weekend. Models are still in a state of flux on the pattern for the end of the year. However, the GFS model has persistently shown a low pressure system dropping into California about Monday. This is enough for me to add a chance of showers to the forecast for Monday and New Year’s Eve.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through Thursday morning. a relatively cold air mass will arrive behind a storm system moving through southern California Christmas Day through Thursday. Cloud cover and areas of fog and low clouds are anticipated for Friday morning. Even so, some locations could touch the lower 30s, especially in Fresno and Madera Counties where skies will clear out first.
For Saturday and Sunday mornings, there’s a greater risk of upper 20s and lower 30s throughout the citrus belt. However, it’s possible fog and low clouds could develop, possibly on a widespread basis. If this occurs, readings could remain generally in the 30s. medium range models show a low dropping over central California Monday and New Year’s Eve. Theoretically, cloud cover would keep temperatures above freezing those days.
The bottom line is, we will have moved through December with no critically cold temperatures.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/95%
Actual Humidity range December 23, 2019: Delano, 100%/96% Porterville, 98%/90%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .28, Parlier .28, Blackwell Corner .34, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .29, Delano .35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 50, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 70/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 696 -265
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 51.2- +6.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.78 season. or -.14. Month to Date: 2.06 +.84
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.93, or +.28. Month to Date: .86 +.15
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 277, Parlier 353, Arvin 246, Shafter 272, Stratford 293, Delano 331, Lindcove 359, Porterville 525
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 49 / 0.18 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 51 / 0.04 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 42 / 0.02 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1500 / 61 / 41 / 0.16 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 74 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 45 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 72 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.16 101 5.00 122 4.10 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.19 92 4.20 121 3.48 13.11
MERCED 0.03 4.88 164 3.56 120 2.97 12.50
MADERA T 2.14 68 2.85 90 3.17 12.02
FRESNO 0.07 2.75 94 2.27 78 2.92 11.50
HANFORD 0.10 1.92 78 1.80 73 2.46 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 1.74 105 1.20 73 1.65 6.47
BISHOP T 1.06 79 1.31 98 1.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.31 129 4.47 133 3.35 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.03 5.08 168 3.52 116 3.03 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 3.27 96 2.29 67 3.40 13.95
Next report: Christmas morning