December 26, 2019
Summary: A rather compact but nevertheless robust winter storm is centered just to the southwest of Santa Barbara at this hour. A wide swath of precipitation is moving into interior sections of southern California. The counterclockwise circulation around this storm is spreading showers from southeast to northwest across the San Joaquin Valley, although precipitation is pretty light. Unusually heavy snow is falling over the Kern County mountains this morning as a reverse upslope situation has developed with heaviest precipitation on the desert side of the mountains. Showers will taper off later today as the center of circulation begins to track through the lower deserts then eventually into Arizona by later this evening.
Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin to shift inland tonight and will dominate our pattern through Sunday. The winds aloft over the weekend will be out of the north Saturday and northwest Sunday. The valley will temporarily be capped under this high with a warm air inversion which will set the stage for increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds.
The next system of note will begin to affect central California Sunday night and Monday. Some models show a low moving southward into the Great Basin while others indicate it will drop right along the central coast, in which case a chance of showers would certainly exist. There’s the possibility of a cut off low parking off the southern California coast New Year’s Eve and Day. This would keep any precipitation south of central California and would also generate an off shore flow.
Models for the first week in January show upper level high pressure dominating our pattern for dry weather and no doubt extensive night and morning fog and low clouds.
Forecast: Showers today, mainly this morning. partly to mostly cloudy tonight with areas of fog and low clouds developing after midnight. Partly cloudy Friday with areas of fog and low clouds Friday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of light showers after midnight. A chance of showers Monday with a slight chance of showers Monday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday with widespread night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 52/31/51/30/53 | Reedley 52/32/51/30/53 | Dinuba 51/31/51/30/52 | |
| Porterville 50/32/51/31/54 | Lindsay 51/31/51/30/53 | Delano 50/32/51/31/54 | |
| Bakersfield 48/36/52/34/54 | Taft 48/35/52/37/54 | Arvin 47/35/52/32/54 | |
| Lamont 49/36/51/33/54 | Pixley 50/32/51/31/53 | Tulare 51/31/51/30/52 | |
| Woodlake 51/31/51/30/53 | Hanford 51/32/51/32/53 | Orosi 51/31/51/29/52 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Increasing clouds 32/53 |
Monday
Chance of showers 41/54 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/55 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 36/56 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 34/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 2 through January 8: This model is indicating high pressure will be shielding California from Pacific storms, so precipitation is unlikely. Temperatures should be pretty close to average.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing this evening. Winds later tonight through Sunday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: As expected, the heaviest precipitation has been along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County. These are rainfall amounts as of 6:30am: Bakersfield .28, CHP at bottom of Grapevine 1.36, Taft .38, Shafter .30, Delano .45, Porterville .05, Visalia .05, Hanford .35, Lemoore .76, Parlier .05, Five Points .38, Fresno .06.
The valley is on the northern rim of a potent winter storm moving into southern California. Showers are moving from southeast to northwest across the valley and will be moving from east to west later today as the low moves through southern California. Dry weather will return later this afternoon, continuing through Sunday. Models are having a difficult time nailing down the pattern for Sunday night through Monday night. We may see a low center drop southward just off the central coast which could cause bands of light showers to move through central California. Other models show the system moving into the Great Basin, in which case dry weather would prevail. After Monday night, it appears a cut off low will park off the southern California coast too far to the south to impact central California for dry weather for what appears to be the first week of the decade.
Frost Discussion: A cold core low will move through southern California today with the northern flank of this storm remaining primarily over the south valley well into the afternoon hours. The flow behind this storm when it exits into Arizona tonight will be out of the north, stacking cloud cover into the south valley and possibly along the eastern side of Fresno and Tulare Counties. The air mass is relatively cold but nothing unusual for late December. Expect widespread low to mid 30s tonight where skies clear. Isolated pockets of upper 20s in river bottoms etc. are possible. Fog and low clouds will rapidly form where skies clear which will also play havoc with temperature forecasting.
The coldest locations Saturday and Sunday mornings have the potential to drop to 27 to 29 degrees but only where fog is not a factor or the possibility of residual cloud cover. Most flatland locations both mornings will chill to 29 to 32 degrees with above freezing conditions where fog or other elements are a factor. Above freezing conditions can be expected Monday morning due to anticipated cloud cover as the next low pressure system possibly moves down the central coast.
Some models show a cut off low forming off the southern California coast New Year’s Eve and Day, creating an off shore flow. The winds aloft will be out of the northeast, however there’s no particularly cold air mass to tap into so no dangerously cold temperatures are expected during the first week in January.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
30 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
34 |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 70%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 75%/100%
Actual Humidity range December 25, 2019: Delano, 100%/53% Porterville, 99%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .27, Parlier .27, Blackwell Corner .29, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .32, Porterville .28, Delano .33. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 51, Delano 47
Record Temperatures: 70/21. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 730 -273
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 50.9- +6.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.81 season. or -.25. Month to Date: 2.09 +.73
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.97, or +.24. Month to Date: .90 +.11
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 293, Parlier 367, Arvin 242, Shafter 285, Stratford 307, Delano 346, Lindcove 384, Porterville 579
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 39 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 54 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 50 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.03 4.19 98 5.88 138 4.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.03 3.22 89 4.49 124 3.63 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.88 158 3.87 125 3.09 12.50
MADERA T 2.15 65 2.99 90 3.31 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.81 92 2.33 76 3.06 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.96 75 1.87 72 2.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.94 112 1.30 75 1.73 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 79 1.57 112 1.40 5.18
SALINAS 0.07 4.39 126 4.77 137 3.49 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 5.09 160 3.60 113 3.18 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.06 3.34 94 2.74 77 3.56 13.95
Next report: December 26/afternoon