December 27, 2019
Summary: Where it cleared along the west side of the valley, dense fog quickly formed overnight. Upslope clouds are banked up against the foothills of the southern Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. The potent storm that pummeled the southern 1/3 of California yesterday has now moved into Arizona. This is allowing upper level high pressure over the eastern pacific to begin to move inland. Currently, central California is sitting on the eastern rim of the high with a northerly flow aloft.
The air mass now settling into the valley floor is relatively cold, but nothing unusual for late December. Over the next few nights, in areas where it clears, local frost will develop. However, dew points have remained quite high behind yesterday’s storm, so widespread fog and low clouds will prevail the next couple of nights as upper level high pressure temporarily caps the valley.
Yet another cold low is projected to slide southward along the Pacific coast. By Sunday night, the center of circulation is projected to be just west of San Francisco then by midday Monday just west of Los Angeles. If this sounds like a familiar theme this winter, it is as the low is projected to move inland through northern Baja New Year’s Eve.
Models are in considerably more agreement this morning that the low will be close enough as it passes to our west to rotate showers into the valley. The highest risk for precipitation will again be along the west side and possibly again in Kern County. Yesterday’s event put Kern County on the northern rim of the storm and it’s possible we could see a repeat late Sunday night and Monday. However, models also indicate this system will not carry nearly as much moisture so precipitation amounts are expected to be quite light.
The first week in January will, in all likelihood, be dry as a large ridge of upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific and roughly the western one-third of the U.S. Typically this pattern during the winter months caps the valley floor with a warm air inversion so plenty of low clouds and fog are expected on the valley floor with partial afternoon clearing each day. Temperatures will be governed by the amount of clearing with above average temperatures on days where clearing is fairly abundant and below average highs where clearing is marginal.
Forecast: Either fog or low clouds this morning. clearing in most areas this afternoon, although the low overcast may persist in portions of Tulare and Kern Counties through the day. Widespread fog and low overcast tonight through Sunday with some afternoon clearing. Increasing higher clouds Sunday afternoon leading to the likelihood of light showers Sunday night and Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night with areas of fog and low clouds developing after midnight. Mostly clear New Year’s Eve through Friday with widespread night and morning fog and clearing in some areas during the afternoons.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/31/53/31/55 | Reedley 52/32/53/32/54 | Dinuba 51/31/52/31/54 | |
| Porterville 50/33/53/32/55 | Lindsay 51/32/53/31/55 | Delano 52/33/53/31/54 | |
| Bakersfield 50/36/53/36/57 | Taft 50/35/55/35/57 | Arvin 50/35/55/33/57 | |
| Lamont 50/37/55/34/57 | Pixley 51/33/53/31/54 | Tulare 50/31/53/31/54 | |
| Woodlake 51/31/53/31/55 | Hanford 52/32/52/32/54 | Orosi 50/31/53/31/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Showers likely 42/51 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 38/53 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 34/54 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 34/55 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 35/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 3 through January 9: This model is indicating high pressure will be shielding California from Pacific storms, so precipitation is unlikely. Temperatures should be pretty close to average.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Monday afternoon.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Sunday. Models have come into better agreement on the progress of a cold low, moving southward just off the northern and central California coast Sunday night and Monday. It now appears the center of circulation will pass close enough to the coast to allow light showers to spread into the valley. Models also indicate this system will not be nearly as potent as yesterday’s event which resulted in almost an inch of rain on some locations of the Kern County portion of the valley floor. Dry weather should return by sometime Monday afternoon. The first week in January still looks dry with extensive fog and low clouds being the main weather challenges.
Frost Discussion: The base of the overcast on the eastern and southern flanks of the valley ranges between 4,600 and 5,000 feet, depending on the weather station. These clouds will mix out in most areas this afternoon as a northerly flow aloft moves drier air in from above. Dew points, however, have remained quite high, so as the high begins to cap the valley over the weekend, widespread fog and low clouds will have no problem forming, possibly helping to keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s. there’s a chance both Saturday and Sunday mornings that unprotected river bottom and other low spots could dip into the upper 20s for short durations. However, no critically cold weather is at hand. In fact, models show a large high building into the western U.S. behind a low pressure system which will result in showers Sunday night and Monday to continue safe conditions, although any morning from New Year’s Eve and beyond with relatively clear skies could see local frost.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
31` |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
SangerRiver Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/90%
Actual Humidity range December 26, 2019: Delano, 100%/80% Porterville, 96%/69%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .22, Parlier .24, Blackwell Corner .24, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .29, Porterville .24, Delano .28. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 51, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 51, Delano 47
Record Temperatures: 72/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 748 -276
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 50.7- +6.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 2.87 season. or -.26. Month to Date: 2.15 +.72
Since Oct 1, 2019 Bakersfield: 2.59, or +.82. Month to Date: 1.52 +.69
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 28, Parlier 372, Arvin 242, Shafter 291, Stratford 312, Delano 352, Lindcove 398, Porterville 600
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 49 / 44 / 0.11 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 45 / 0.06 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 46 / 0.35 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 45 / 0.79 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 50 / 45 / 0.65 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 44 / 0.07 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 51 / 43 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 53 / 46 / 0.05 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 45 / 41 / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / 43 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.19 97 5.88 135 4.34 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.22 87 4.49 121 3.71 13.11
MERCED 0.05 4.93 156 3.87 122 3.16 12.50
MADERA 0.11 2.26 67 2.99 89 3.37 12.02
FRESNO 0.06 2.87 92 2.33 74 3.13 11.50
HANFORD 0.23 2.31 86 1.87 70 2.69 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.62 2.59 146 1.30 73 1.77 6.47
BISHOP T 1.10 76 1.57 109 1.44 5.18
SALINAS T 4.76 134 4.77 134 3.56 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 5.78 177 3.60 110 3.26 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.01 3.86 106 2.74 75 3.63 13.95
Next report: December 27/afternoon