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Forecast

December 28, 2019/report

December 28, 2019

Summary:  Upper level high pressure is centered just off the southern California coast this morning and covers California and into the Desert Southwest.  Warmer air is moving in aloft as the freezing level has risen to 9,400 feet, a far cry from the 4,500 foot freezing level of 72 hours ago.  Skies are mostly clear over central California with areas of ground fog here and there on the valley floor.  Citrus frost stations all the way from Madera to Kern County are almost all uniformly in the lower 30s this morning.

 

The high will begin to be suppressed southward tonight and Sunday in response to a developing low pressure system over the northeast Pacific which will approach the Oregon coast tonight.  it will then turn southward, tracking just off the northern and central California coast Sunday afternoon through early Monday.  Models place the center of circulation near Monterey later Sunday night then just west of San Diego by Monday morning.  the chance of showers will begin to spread in from the west possibly as early as Sunday afternoon, becoming likely Sunday night, ending by midday Monday.  The western side of Fresno, Kings, and Kern Counties have the highest potential for picking up more significant precipitation with just light showers on the east side of the valley.  The low will finally move through northern Baja Monday night and Tuesday morning.

 

Models show a ridge of upper level high pressure building over the eastern Pacific and moving inland New Year’s Day.  It will dominate our pattern through January 4 with dry weather, meaning increasing amounts of night and morning fog with hazy afternoon sunshine.  The ridge of high pressure will begin to flatten out after the 4th with the storm track moving further south.

 

Even though models are somewhat inconclusive after January 4, two week models are indicating below average temperatures with increasing chances of precipitation.

 

Forecast: Areas of fog this morning, otherwise mostly clear.  Mostly clear tonight with areas of fog developing after midnight.  Increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of showers Sunday afternoon.  Showers likely Sunday night into Monday morning.  Mostly to partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.  mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Friday with aras of night and morning fog and low clouds.  Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a slight chance of showers Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 53/31/55/40/54 Reedley 53/32/55/40/53 Dinuba 52/31/55/39/52
Porterville 54/32/55/40/54 Lindsay 54/31/55/40/54 Delano 54/33/55/41/54
Bakersfield 55/36/58/43/52 Taft 53/37/58/43/51 Arvin 55/32/58/42/51
Lamont 54/33/58/42/52 Pixley 53/32/55/40/53 Tulare 52/31/55/40/52
Woodlake 53/31/55/40/53 Hanford 53/33/55/41/53 Orosi 54/31/55/39/52

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

AM fog/PM sun

36/53

Wednesday

AM fog/PM sun

35/55

Thursday

AM fog/PM sun

35/56

Friday

Increasing clouds

38/59

Saturday

Slight chance of showers

40/57

 

Two Week Outlook: January 4 through January 10:  This model is indicating a broad trough of cold low pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and western U.S. for a high risk of precipitation.  Generally a chilly north to northwest flow would prevail, resulting in below average temperatures.

 

January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends.  If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average.  It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.

 

February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period.  This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through tonight.  Winds later Sunday through Monday morning will be generally out of the east to southeast at 5 to 12 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Monday afternoon will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph with light to calm winds Monday night and Tuesday.

 

Rain:  The chance of rain will increase later Sunday afternoon in western Fresno and Kings counties with light showers spreading into the eastern side of Fresno and Tulare Counties.  Precipitation will reach the valley portion of Kern County around sunset, continuing well into Monday morning.  highest precipitation totals will be in western Fresno County, much of Kings County and the valley portion of Kern County where possibly as much as .25 to .33 may be measured with perhaps .10 to .20 in eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties. Dry weather will return Monday afternoon and will continue through at least Friday of next week.  Some models suggest the possibility of a colder and possibly active pattern developing next weekend, although models vary considerably on this.

 

Frost Discussion:  As of 6:30 this morning, temperatures were fairly uniformly in the lower 30s from Madera all the way through Kern County.  I would anticipate temperatures tonight in the low to mid 30s with similar low temperatures to those we experienced this morning.  it’s possible higher clouds ahead of the next weather system could begin to overspread central California during the predawn hours.  If this happens, temperatures would range in the mid 30s to the lower 40s.  expect above freezing temperatures Monday morning due to heavy cloud cover and precipitation.  The air mass behind the Monday storm system is not that cold.  In fact, I would anticipate seasonal temperatures for much of the first week of January with lows generally ranging in the 30s with local areas of frost, but mainly in the traditionally cold pockets.  Currently, there’s nothing on models suggesting critically cold temperatures, although the new two week model is now insisting on below average temperatures between the fourth and the tenth with a possible active pattern setting up, as well.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

30

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

31

Mcfarland

32

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

32

Madera

31

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

33

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

38

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

33

Jasmine

32

Arvin

32

Lamont

32

Plainview

31

Mettler

33

Edison

33

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

31

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

31

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 30s.  Humidity values ranging from 65%/100% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 55%/80%

Actual Humidity range December 27, 2019: Delano, 100%/60% Porterville, 96%/52%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 10%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 0%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .23, Parlier .22, Blackwell Corner .25, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .28, Porterville .24, Delano .28. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 51, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 51, Delano 47

Record Temperatures: 66/24. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 769 -276

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for December so far: 50.5- +5.8

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2019  Fresno: 2.87 season. or -.32.  Month to Date: 2.15 +.66

Since Oct 1, 2019  Bakersfield:  2.59, or +.78.  Month to Date: 1.52 +.65

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 312,  Parlier 387,  Arvin 254, Shafter 307, Stratford 328, Delano 368, Lindcove 415, Porterville 618

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:11  Sunset: 4:51 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:40

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  53 /  34 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  53 /  40 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  54 /  34 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  54 /  30 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  53 /  44 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1500 /  53 /  39 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH0849 /   M /  34 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1500 /  55 /  41 /    T /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1550 /  52 /  38 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  54 /  33 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    4.19    95    5.88   133     4.42    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.22    85    4.49   119     3.78    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    4.93   153    3.87   120     3.23    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.26    66    2.99    87     3.45    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    2.87    90    2.33    73     3.19    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    2.31    83    1.87    67     2.78    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.59   143    1.30    72     1.81     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.10    75    1.57   107     1.47     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    4.76   131    4.77   131     3.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    5.78   173    3.60   108     3.34    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    3.86   104    2.74    74     3.72    13.95

 

 

Next report: December 28/afternoon