December 29, 2019
Summary: Clouds are increasing ahead of a developing low pressure system west of the Oregon coast this morning. the evolution of this system will turn it into a closed low off the northern California coast this afternoon. It will then race southward to a position roughly 250 miles west of Monterey by midnight and roughly 350 miles west of San Diego by midday Monday. Short term models this morning show this system tracking a bit further off shore than previous models had indicated. The fact that it no longer spears this storm will be a coastal hugger means the chance of any substantial precipitation for the valley is certainly reduced. The main dynamics of this storm will be from the Coast Range westward out over the Pacific Ocean. The greatest risk of heavier precipitation will be along the far west side of the valley.
The low will eventually move into north/central Baja, even bypassing much of southern California. By New Year’s Eve night and New Year’s Day, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin to ridge into Oregon and northern California, creating a northeast flow aloft. From New Year’s night through January 4th, upper level high pressure will be anchored off the California coast with central California underneath the eastern side of the high. This pattern is conducive for widespread night and morning fog and, if recent years are any barometer, afternoon sunshine will prevail. Highs will eventually move to somewhat above seasonal average.
Medium range models do not show much hope of precipitation this week and possibly into next week, as well. The main storm track will move into the Pacific Northwest then into the northern and central Rockies.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today with a chance of light showers this afternoon. Showers tonight into the early morning hours Monday. Mostly to partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. mostly clear Tuesday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through next Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
Madera 55/40/56/34/56 | Reedley 56/40/56/35/56 | Dinuba 55/40/55/34/55 | |
Porterville 57/41/56/34/56 | Lindsay 57/39/56/34/57 | Delano 58/41/56/35/57 | |
Bakersfield 58/43/56/38/58 | Taft 56/42/56/39/57 | Arvin 59/42/56/37/58 | |
Lamont 59/42/56/40/57 | Pixley 57/40/56/35/56 | Tulare 55/39/56/34/56 | |
Woodlake 55/40/56/34/55 | Hanford 57/40/56/35/56 | Orosi 57/39/56/39/56 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 35/56
|
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 35/58 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 36/57 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 37/59 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 36/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 4 through January 10: This model is indicating a broad trough of cold low pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and western U.S. for a high risk of precipitation. Generally a chilly north to northwest flow would prevail, resulting in below average temperatures.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds this morning will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds this afternoon through tonight will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 12 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Latest models this morning show a low pressure system sliding southward off the central coast tonight and early Monday. Models indicate the center of circulation will be around 150 miles further west out over the ocean than previously indicated. This will reduce the chance of any significant precipitation. Rainfall at most locations will be no more than a tenth or two with the possible exception of the far west side where locally heavier amounts are possible. The chance for light showers will begin to increase this afternoon, becoming likely tonight and ending around the morning commute Monday. Models continue to indicate the first week in January will be dry.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight due to cloudy skies and periodic light showers. For Tuesday and each morning for the remainder of the week, temperatures will generally be in the 30s. As high pressure takes over, a warm air inversion will develop which will be conducive for at least areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. With anticipated afternoon dew points ranging in the upper 30s to even the mid 40s, only the coldest locations have the potential to drop into the lower 30s each morning. for now, there’s nothing on longer range models indicating a pattern which would bring about overly cold weather.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/90%
Actual Humidity range December 28, 2019: Delano, 100%/51% Porterville, 98%/49%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .23, Parlier .22, Blackwell Corner .24, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .28, Porterville .24, Delano .26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 50, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 51, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 69/24. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 791 -275
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 50.2- +5.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 2.87 season. or -.39. Month to Date: 2.15 +.59
Since Oct 1, 2019 Bakersfield: 2.59, or +.74. Month to Date: 1.52 +.61
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 329, Parlier 403, Arvin 270, Shafter 322, Stratford 342, Delano 383, Lindcove 433, Porterville 633
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 Sunset: 4:52 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 54 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 34 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.19 93 5.88 131 4.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.22 83 4.49 116 3.86 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.93 149 3.87 117 3.30 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.26 64 2.99 85 3.53 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.87 88 2.33 71 3.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.31 80 1.87 65 2.87 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.59 140 1.30 70 1.85 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 73 1.57 104 1.51 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.76 129 4.77 129 3.70 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.78 169 3.60 105 3.42 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.86 102 2.74 72 3.80 13.95
Next report: December 28/afternoon