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Forecast

New Year’s Eve/report

Summary:  This morning is a pretty good preview of the remainder of the work week.  In other words, the race between morning fog and low clouds and areas of frost.  As of the time of this writing, both Lemoore and Visalia were down to ¼ mile visibility with other locations down to 1 to2 miles.  We also have an off shore flow underway as surface high pressure over the Great Basin will generate Santa Ana wind conditions over southern California over the next 24 hours.  Currently, the barometric pressure at Salt Lake City was 30.32 inches of mercury while at LAX the current reading is 29.96, a difference of .36 of an inch.

 

In the big picture, the low pressure system that brought very light precipitation two days ago is now centered over north/central Baja, California while a high center is several hundred miles off the California coast with a ridge extending into Oregon and northern California.  The high will continue to expand and strengthen through Friday, resulting in a sharp warm air inversion over the valley floor which will result in the formation of at least areas of night and morning fog and low clouds with hazy afternoon sunshine.

 

Daytime highs will theoretically rise bit by bit through the week, assuming the fog and low clouds do not become too extensive.  The high will be suppressed southward over the weekend into northern Mexico.  This will allow a weak trough of low pressure to move through.  Current models appear quite weak with this system, so most if not all the precipitation may be confined to northern California and the Pacific Northwest.

 

For the first half of next week, a flat zone of high pressure will reside over the eastern Pacific and northern California for a continuation of dry weather.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday night but with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds and hazy afternoons.  Partly cloudy Saturday.  variable cloudiness Saturday night through Sunday night.  becoming partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday with areas of  night and morning fog and low clouds.

 

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 56/33/58/34/58 Reedley 57/33/58/33/58 Dinuba 56/32/58/33/58
Porterville 57/33/58/34/59 Lindsay 57/31/58/32/59 Delano 59/34/59/36/58
Bakersfield 60/39/60/41/59 Taft 58/41/59/41/58 Arvin 60/35/60/36/59
Lamont 58/35/59/36/58 Pixley 58/32/58/33/58 Tulare 56/32/58/33/57
Woodlake 57/32/58/33/57 Hanford 57/34/58/35/56 Orosi 57/31/58/32/56

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

AM fog/PM sun

36/58

Saturday

Partly cloudy

36/58

Sunday

Mostly cloudy

39/54

Monday

Partly cloudy

33/55

Tuesday

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

32/57

 

Two Week Outlook: January 6 through January 12:  This model continues to indicate a cold trough of low pressure will affect the eastern pacific and much of the western U.S. during this time frame.  The chance for precipitation is relatively high with temperatures falling below average.

 

January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends.  If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average.  It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.

 

February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period.  This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.

 

Winds: Winds tonight through Friday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather more than likely through the weekend and for the first few days of next week.  Beginning around the ninth or tenth, models continue to point to a series of storms moving in from the Gulf of Alaska for an increasing chance of precipitation for the ninth and tenth and for several days thereafter.

 

Frost Discussion:  Low to mid 30s are widespread this morning. This is a good preview of what I believe will take place through at least Friday morning.  that’s assuming fog and low clouds don’t become too extensive.  If that does happen, above freezing conditions will prevail.  For now, I believe low to mid 30s is a good forecast for each morning through Friday.  We should see increasing cloudiness Saturday and into early next week.  However, some models are indicating a strong off shore flow will develop Sunday and Monday.  This could mix down some drier air to the valley  floor.  For now, I don’t see anything critical, but it is a pattern that will have to be monitored.  Also, a cold pattern will develop about the 9th or 10th.For now, it does not look like a hard freeze pattern, but models do seem to be evolving into patterns that could transport colder air into central California between the 12th and 15th.  For now, we’ll just study model information as it becomes available.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

33

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

32

Mcfarland

31

Ducor

33

Tea Pot dome

33

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

33

Madera

33

Belridge

32

Delano

33

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

33

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

31

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

33

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

32

AF=Above Freezing                

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 55%/95%

Actual Humidity range December 30, 2019: Delano, 100%/68% Porterville, 97%/62%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .28, Parlier .25, Blackwell Corner .28, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .26, Delano .27. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 49, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano 46

Record Temperatures: 69/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 830 -278

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for December so far: 49.9 +5.3

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2019  Fresno: 2.88 season. or -.52.  Month to Date: 2.16 +.46

Since Oct 1, 2019  Bakersfield:  2.59, or +.67.  Month to Date: 1.52 +.54

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 354,  Parlier 428,  Arvin 296, Shafter 339, Stratford 359, Delano 407, Lindcove 457, Porterville 671

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:11  Sunset: 4:53 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:42

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  53 /  42 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  50 /  41 / 0.01 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  55 /  41 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  56 /  43 /    T /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  57 /  47 /    T /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  55 /  40 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH0917 /   M /  45 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  58 /  41 /    T /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1550 /  54 /  45 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  58 /   M /    M /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    4.32    93    5.88   126     4.65    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.23    81    4.49   112     4.01    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    4.96   144    3.87   113     3.44    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.26    62    2.99    81     3.67    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    2.88    85    2.33    69     3.40    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    2.31    76    1.87    62     3.04    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                      T    2.59   135    1.30    68     1.92     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.10    70    1.57    99     1.58     5.18

SALINAS                          T    5.06   132    4.77   124     3.84    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.08    6.01   168    3.60   101     3.58    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.11    4.16   105    2.74    69     3.97    13.95

 

Next report: New Year’s Eve afternoon