January 3, 2020
Summary: Temperatures this afternoon are running anywhere from 5 to 7 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago and are generally in the low to mid 60s. That’s a good 7 to 10 degrees above average. This is partly due to an upwelling of high pressure brought on by an approaching trough of low pressure and a very weak southeast flow moving up the valley. That off shore trough will move inland Saturday afternoon and evening. Showers will be kept north of a Bay Area/Sacramento line with just varying amounts of mid and high level clouds over central California.
Behind the cold frontal passage, which will occur later Saturday afternoon, will be a cooler air mass. Even so, temperatures will only return to near seasonal values. Another weak ripple of low pressure will move quickly in to our north, again with very little impact. A flat zone of upper level high pressure will take over Monday and Tuesday with the main storm track remaining in the Pacific Northwest.
The next shift in our pattern will occur later Wednesday and Thursday of next week, but even this far out models don’t appear overly impressive as far as our chance of rain is concerned.
I still keep looking at the 11th as the day for possibly seeing a more substantial weather pattern change. Two possible solutions continue to show up. The first has weather systems moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, producing on and off precipitation from time to time throughout California. The second, which I want to carefully study, has the eastern Pacific high retrograding farther off shore while a vigorous low pressure system with origins in the northwest territories of Canada dives southward into the Pacific Northwest with a north to south flow aloft right along the west coast. In theory this could lead to some chilly nights. For now, this isn’t showing up as a classic freeze pattern but it could turn into one.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight and Saturday morning with patchy fog and clouds Saturday morning. variable cloudiness Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Wednesday night through Thursday. Mostly cloudy Thursday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/63/40/55 | Reedley 36/63/40/56 | Dinuba 34/63/39/55 | |
| Porterville 34/64/40/55 | Lindsay 33/63/39/56 | Delano 37/64/41/56 | |
| Bakersfield 42/64/43/56 | Taft 43/63/43/56 | Arvin 38/65/41/56 | |
| Lamont 36/64/40/57 | Pixley 35/63/40/56 | Tulare 34/62/40/55 | |
| Woodlake 34/62/39/55 | Hanford 36/63/40/56 | Orosi 33/63/38/55 | |
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday morning. later Saturday afternoon and night, winds will be out of the southwest at 5 to 15 MPH, becoming light again Sunday through Monday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Above freezing conditions will continue for the next week or so, although it is possible coldest locations Monday and Tuesday could drop into the lower 30s. I’m still watching potential patterns beginning the tenth or eleventh. Two possible solutions continue to show up on paper. The first is more of an active pattern with periodic storminess for several days beginning the eleventh with below average temperatures. The second is a bit more ominous as a north to south flow develops between high pressure off the Pacific coast and a deepening low over the Pacific Northwest and possibly even the Great Basin. This could funnel modified arctic air southward into the western U.S. For now, I’m not calling for a dangerous weather pattern, but it is one that deserves attention as we approach that time frame.
Next report: January 4/am