January 3, 2020
Summary: Pretty much the same old thing this morning with areas of fog and low clouds intermixed with areas that have mostly clear but hazy conditions. Today and Saturday will be the warmest we’ll see in a while as upper level high pressure centered off the coast is suppressed towards the southeast in response to a trough of low pressure which currently extends from the Gulf of Alaska to several hundred miles off the northern California coast. That trough will move inland Saturday afternoon and evening with no precipitation. Any rain from this system will be north of a Bay Area/Sacramento/Tahoe line. A dry cold front will move down the valley Saturday evening followed by a cooler air mass which will lower temperatures closer to seasonal values.
There will be some increase in sky cover later Saturday and on through Sunday as another weak wave of low pressure moves through Sunday afternoon. Following this system will be surface high pressure which will build over the Great Basin, generating an off shore flow.
The next major change in the pattern will begin around the middle of next week. Models show the eastern Pacific high beginning to retrograde further off the Pacific coast while an elongated trough of low pressure stretches from southern Alaska to the Great Basin. By Friday, embedded within this low will be a stronger low, possibly driving colder air into California as a northerly flow sets up between high pressure over the central and eastern Pacific and the deepening low over the interior west. This is not a classic freeze pattern, but it is one which would result in below average temperatures. For now, it’s just something to keep an eye on as we remain in what are in, on average, the coldest weeks of the year.
Forecast: Areas of low clouds and fog, mainly north of Kern County and mainly towards the center of the valley this morning. otherwise, a mix of hazy sunshine and high clouds will prevail. Partly cloudy tonight and Saturday morning with patchy fog and low clouds Saturday morning. variable cloudiness Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. mostly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with a slight chance of showers Thursday. Variable cloudiness Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/39/63/41/55 | Reedley 62/38/63/40/54 | Dinuba 61/38/62/39/54 | |
| Porterville 63/38/63/40/55 | Lindsay 62/37/63/39/55 | Delano 63/41/63/41/56 | |
| Bakersfield 65/44/65/42/56 | Taft 64/45/65/42/56 | Arvin 66/42/65/42/54 | |
| Lamont 64/42/65/42/54 | Pixley 63/39/63/40/55 | Tulare 61/38/63/40/54 | |
| Woodlake 61/39/63/40/54 | Hanford 62/40/63/41/56 | Orosi 61/37/63/39/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 34/53 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 33/56 |
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 37/54 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 41/56 |
Friday
Mostly cloudy 38/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 10 through January 16: This model is indicating a much higher than average risk of below average temperatures during this time frame with the possibility of precipitation from time to time.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds through Monday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather to continue through at least Tuesday night. from late Wednesday night through Thursday, models do indicate there’s a chance of the storm track beginning to shift southward from either the Gulf of Alaska or possibly even northwest Canada. For now, we’ll go with a minimal chance of light precipitation from roughly next Thursday. This is an evolving pattern.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight. a colder air mass will follow a cold front down the valley later Saturday afternoon and night which will lower temperatures down to near average. It will not be followed by a particularly dry air mass, which would lower dew points, allowing for below freezing temperatures. It is possible for coldest locations Monday and Tuesday to dip down to 30 to 32 or so. Increasing amounts of cloud cover towards the middle of next week will maintain above freezing conditions.
Models continue to show a pattern evolving which would result in below average temperatures about the 11th or so. There are two possible patterns showing up on paper. The first would allow Pacific storms to move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California for a chance of rain from time to time. The other is the possibility of high pressure shifting out further over the Pacific Ocean while a very cold low drops southward from western Canada and into the western U.S., creating a north/south flow. Theoretically, this could mean some very chilly nights. I don’t consider it a classic freeze pattern, but it is certainly one which could result in below freezing weather.
This far out, there’s plenty of time to tweak the forecast.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 2, 2020: Delano, 100%/69% Porterville, 99%/67%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .30, Parlier .33, Blackwell Corner .33, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .33, Delano .34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 49, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 49, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 72/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 884 -290
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 47.0 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 2.88 season. or -.74. Month to Date: .00 -.15
Since Oct 1, 2019 Bakersfield: 2.59, or +.55. Month to Date: .00 -.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 393, Parlier 467, Arvin 331, Shafter 374, Stratford 389, Delano 444, Lindcove 499, Porterville 720
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 Sunset: 4:56 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 53 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 51 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 51 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 56 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 59 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 88 5.88 120 4.90 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.23 76 4.49 106 4.23 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.96 133 3.87 103 3.74 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.26 57 2.99 75 3.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.88 80 2.33 64 3.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.31 69 1.87 56 3.33 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.59 127 1.30 64 2.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 64 1.57 92 1.71 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.06 124 4.77 117 4.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.01 157 3.60 94 3.83 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.16 99 2.74 65 4.22 13.95
Next report: January 3/PM