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Forecast

January 5, 2020/report

January 5, 2020

Summary:  Porterville, Visalia, and Fresno are reporting a visibility of less than ¼ of a mile as of 7:00am.  Madera was down to ½ mile while Bakersfield was indicating upslope clouds based at 4,300 feet.  This is all due to a weather disturbance which moved through overnight.  The west/northwest flow behind the system has developed a low cloud deck over Kern County with literally clear skies elsewhere and dew points well into the 40s. Ground fog had no problem developing.

 

In the broad picture, another disturbance will move through the Pacific Northwest and will clip about the northern ¼ of California today.  The cooler air mass invading California will lower temperatures this afternoon anywhere from 5 to 7 degrees below yesterday’s rather balmy temperatures.

 

As the system moves through the Pacific Northwest today, surface high pressure will follow the system over the Great Basin, generating an off shore flow tonight through Monday at the surface.  The winds aloft, however, will remain out of the west/northwest, maintaining rather mild conditions.

 

The next weather system of note will be in the form of a weak trough of low pressure which will move from west to east through northern and central California Wednesday followed by another ridge of high pressure Thursday through Friday.  On Saturday, a low in the Gulf of Alaska will begin to slide southward through western Canada and will center over the Pacific Northwest.  It will then move into the Great Basin Sunday and Sunday night.  the eastern Pacific high will back up off shore, allowing a northwest flow aloft to prevail into the western United States. However, models this morning do not show the trough of low pressure digging as far south as earlier models had indicated.  Models this morning are also showing a northwest flow aloft for the first part of next week instead of a northerly flow which earlier models had depicted.

 

Models going through the middle of the month are indicating a dominant westerly flow in the upper atmosphere which will keep polar air masses in Canada and Alaska with no sign of polar air masses moving into California or even the lower 48, for that matter.

 

Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning.  becoming mostly clear this afternoon.  Areas of fog and low clouds later tonight and again Monday night with clearing in the afternoons.  Partly cloudy Tuesday night.  variable cloudiness at times Wednesday through Friday night with patchy night and morning fog.  Mostly cloudy Saturday through Sunday with a slight chance of showers, mainly from Fresno north.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 55/32/57/32/59 Reedley 56/33/56/32/57 Dinuba 55/32/56/32/57
Porterville 56/33/56/33/58 Lindsay 57/32/56/32/58 Delano 57/33/56/34/58
Bakersfield 54/39/58/39/62 Taft 55/41/59/39/62 Arvin 54/36/59/35/63
Lamont 54/36/59/36/62 Pixley 55/33/56/33/59 Tulare 56/32/56/32/58
Woodlake 57/32/56/33/58 Hanford 57/34/56/33/59 Orosi 56/32/56/32/58

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Variable clouds

34/57

Thursday

Variable clouds

37/56

Friday

Variable clouds

36/55

Saturday

Slight chance of showers

41/59

Sunday

Slight chance of showers

39/57

 

Two Week Outlook: January 12 through January 18:  This model is indicating a much higher than average risk of below average temperatures during this time frame with the possibility of precipitation from time to time.

 

January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends.  If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average.  It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.

 

February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period.  This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.

 

Winds: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties.  Winds tonight through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Dry weather will continue through at least Friday night.  we’ll go ahead and add a slight chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north Saturday through Sunday.  This morning’s models do indicate a low will drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest this coming weekend.  Unfortunately, models continue to show the precipitation will be over mainly Washington and Oregon and parts of northern California.  Still, there is enough model variation to put a slight chance of showers in the forecast.

 

Frost Discussion:  Only the coldest locations will drop into the lower 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings.  Even though a cooler air mass has overspread central California, dew points will remain well  into the 40s.  most locations will range between 32 and 36 degrees.  For Wednesday and the remainder of the week, I anticipate temperatures will be above freezing due to increased cloud cover and a mild westerly flow in the upper atmosphere.  Medium range models this morning do not show modified arctic air moving into California. Over the past few days, models had indicated a northerly flow would develop over western North America.  Latest models, however, show a northwest flow which is considerably milder.  Therefore, this unusually mild winter we are experiencing will continue.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

33

Porterville

33

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

32

Mcfarland

33

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

33

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

33

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

33

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 45%/100% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 45%/95%

Actual Humidity range January 4, 2020: Delano, 100%/64% Porterville, 98%/51%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .28, Parlier .38, Blackwell Corner .35, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .33, Delano .35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 49, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 49, Delano 45

Record Temperatures: 72/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 912 -304

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 49.0 +5.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2019  Fresno: 2.88 season. or -.88.  Month to Date: .00 -.29

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  2.59, or +.48.  Month to Date: .00 -.15

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 406,  Parlier 487,  Arvin 334, Shafter 394, Stratford 410, Delano 455, Lindcove 525, Porterville 736

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:12  Sunset: 4:57 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:45

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  64 /  35 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  65 /  42 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  66 /  38 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  65 /  35 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  65 /  39 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  64 /  39 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  62 /  40 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1550 /  65 /  48 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.01    4.33    86    5.88   116     5.06    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.23    74    4.49   102     4.39    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    4.96   126    3.87    98     3.95    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.26    54    2.99    71     4.19    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    2.88    77    2.33    62     3.76    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    2.31    65    1.87    53     3.53    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.59   123    1.30    62     2.11     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.10    61    1.57    88     1.79     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.06   120    4.77   113     4.22    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.01   150    3.60    90     4.00    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.16    95    2.74    63     4.38    13.95

 

 

Next report: January 5/PM