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Forecast

January 7, 2020/pm update

January 7, 2020

Summary: Today is the first time this winter where no clearing has occurred from the central Sacramento Valley southward to the lower slopes of the Kern County mountains.  It’s also the coldest afternoon of the winter thus far.  As of 1:00pm, Bakersfield and Porterville were each reporting 47 degrees, Lemoore was at 46, Visalia and Madera 44 each, and Fresno is a chilly 43.  The base of the overcast at all locations ranges from 300 to 700 feet.  The overcast will begin to lift later tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves into northern and central California.  It’s unclear at this time whether or not this first of two systems will have enough energy to clear out the low cloud deck.  It’s possible that, as somewhat cooler air moves in aloft, drizzle could occur in some locations.

 

Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will slide a bit further off shore.  As a colder trough of low pressure digs southward over the interior west Wednesday night and Thursday, a disturbance located in the Gulf of Alaska will race southward through central California Thursday and Thursday night for a chance of light showers.  Friday and Friday night will be dry with more clouds and fog possibly forming Friday morning.

 

From Saturday through Monday, models continue to show systems sliding rapidly southward right along the North American coastline of Canada then into the Pacific Northwest, eventually reaching the Great Basin.  If these cold disturbances track southward far enough to the west, a chance of light showers could occur anytime from Saturday through Monday.  For now there’s even a greater risk of showers Tuesday as models show a stronger system moving into the pipeline just east of the Sierra Nevada.

 

By Wednesday of next week, a low center should be developing off the Oregon coast.  Models indicate a moist westerly flow will develop underneath the low next Thursday and Friday for a greater risk of a precipitation event.

 

Some models have backed off on an atmospheric river of air event developing, but even so, the risk of fairly substantial precipitation remains high.

 

Forecast: Fog and low overcast tonight through Wednesday morning with drizzle possible after midnight.  Mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and night.  cloudy Thursday and Thursday night with a chance of light showers.  Areas of fog and low clouds Friday morning, otherwise it will be partly cloudy Friday and Friday night.  variable cloudiness Saturday through Monday with a chance of light showers Saturday and Saturday night and again on Monday through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 40/54/39/52 Reedley 41/55/40/51 Dinuba 39/53/39/52
Porterville 41/54/40/52 Lindsay 39/53/40/51 Delano 41/55/40/51
Bakersfield 42/55/42/52 Taft 40/56/42/53 Arvin 42/56/42/52
Lamont 42/55/40/53 Pixley 40/54/40/51 Tulare 39/53/40/51
Woodlake 39/54/40/52 Hanford 41/55/41/51 Orosi 38/53/39/51

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with light winds Wednesday night.  Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts in western Fresno and Kings counties.  Light to near calm winds will return Thursday night through Friday.

 

Rain:  A chance of rain exists for Thursday and Thursday night as a fast moving cold low pressure system moves through.  Dry weather can be expected Friday and Friday night.  another small chance of light showers exists for Saturday and Saturday night as weather systems dive from north/northwest to south/southeast through the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin.  A narrow slot of dry weather appears likely Sunday and Sunday night with an increasing chance of light showers again Monday through Tuesday.  After Wednesday, the chance of more appreciable precipitation will increase as models continue to show a low developing off the Oregon coast with a moist westerly flow underneath the low into northern and central California.  If this occurs, it’s an ideal pattern for substantial amounts of precipitation, especially along the Sierra Nevada, from next Thursday through Saturday.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will above 32 degrees Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  A solid low overcast tonight will keep temperatures in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Conditions Thursday morning will be governed by higher clouds for another night of above freezing temperatures.  Lower 30s cannot be ruled out Friday and Saturday mornings as a relatively cold air mass invades California from the north/northwest.  For now, Sunday through Wednesday mornings appear above freezing due to cloud cover and occasionally unsettled weather.  A much milder pattern is likely to begin next Wednesday and beyond as a moist westerly flow brings precipitation and very mild air to the region.  After a week from Saturday, potentially colder weather may arrive.  Currently, it doesn’t appear to be a freeze pattern, but a pattern that does bear watching.

Next report: January 8/am