We will be out of the office Thursday morning, January 9. We’ll return early afternoon. Reports will resume at that time.
Thank you, John and Trudy
January 8, 2020
Summary: Every reporting station between Bakersfield and Merced is reporting temperatures between 45 and 48 degrees as the low overcast remains locked over the valley floor. The overcast is beginning to lift, however. Mixing is now taking place between the low cloud deck and the northwesterly flow above. Visalia was actually reporting some drizzle as of 1:00pm. Above the cloud deck will be an increasing amount of clouds tonight in advance of a rapidly moving cold low pressure system with its origins in the Gulf of Alaska. Showers will spread down to a Monterey/Merced line by sunrise and over the remainder of the valley during the morning hours, quickly tapering off during the afternoon as the low moves into southern California.
Friday through Sunday will be characterized by a ridge of upper level high pressure off the north American coast with a cold trough of low pressure engulfing the interior western U.S. California will be between these two major players with variable cloudiness at times and areas of night and morning fog possible Saturday and Sunday mornings.
From Monday through Wednesday of next week, a series of disturbances are expected to rapidly move through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. I wouldn’t rule out a chance of light showers any day from Monday through Wednesday, but it’s Thursday and beyond that are of most concern. Models continue to show the development of an intense low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Wednesday. it will slide to a position off the northern California coast Thursday and Friday. Flanked underneath this low will be a very moist, westerly flow which is ideal for heavy amounts of precipitation, especially over the mountain areas. Also, significant differences in pressure show up on models for next Thursday and Friday which could result in wind problems, especially over the valley portion of Kern County.
If that weren’t enough, a massive ridge is projected to build into the Arctic regions of northwest Canada and Alaska around the 20th with modified arctic air moving into the western states thereafter. Many weather scenarios will show up on paper between now and then, but considering the very mild winter we’ve enjoyed, cold weather would be no surprise.
Forecast: Increasing clouds tonight. showers likely Thursday morning, diminishing during the afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning with areas of fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday night with areas of fog and low clouds. Variable cloudiness Monday through Wednesday night with a small chance of showers each day.
Short Term:
| Madera 39/52/38/53 | Reedley 39/51/38/52 | Dinuba 38/51/38/53 | |
| Porterville 40/52/38/53 | Lindsay 38/52/38/53 | Delano 40/52/38/53 | |
| Bakersfield 42/52/40/56 | Taft 41/53/41/55 | Arvin 40/52/40/55 | |
| Lamont 41/52/40/54 | Pixley 40/51/38/53 | Tulare 39/51/38/53 | |
| Woodlake 39/52/38/52 | Hanford 39/53/38/53 | Orosi 38/52/37/53 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be generally out of the northwest but at no more than 5 to 10 MPH. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties. Winds will diminish Thursday evening with winds of generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions Saturday through Sunday.
I’m also looking at medium range models for next Wednesday night through Friday. On paper, a powerful winter storm will be off the northern California coast with considerably higher barometric pressure over southern California. This pattern is conducive for strong winds in the valley portion of Kern County as well as up the west side of the valley.
We will be out of the office Thursday morning, January 9. We’ll return early afternoon. Reports will resume at that time.
Thank you, John and Trudy
Rain: Light rain will spread rapidly down the valley beginning early Thursday morning, tapering off by midday with dry weather returning later Thursday afternoon. This is a very fast moving system, so only a tenth or two can be expected at most locations. Expect dry weather Thursday night through Sunday night. There will be a small chance of light showers Monday through Wednesday. most of the time it will be dry, but a minimal chance of showers has to remain in the forecast as systems move quickly into Nevada. After Wednesday is when the precipitation machine may very well really get cranked up. Models show an intense low pressure system off the northern California coast Thursday with a pipeline of deep moisture flanked underneath the storms and into northern and central California. Typically, this pattern results in copious amounts of precipitation along the Sierra Nevada and other mountain ranges as well as over the valley floor.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. it’s possible that if it clears, low 30s could occur Friday through Sunday mornings. Most locations, however, will range in the mid to upper 30s. For now, it appears above freezing temperatures will prevail through all of next week due to a very active pattern.
I’m still studying models beginning the 20th which show the potential of an Arctic outbreak into the western U.S. We’re way too far out to deal with this accurately, and it’s quite possible it may not happen at all. Nevertheless, follow updates in the coming days.
Next report: January 9/afternoon