trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 9, 2020
Summary: A cold weather system and its associated cold front raced through the valley this morning with widespread shower activity. There were a few locations that actually received more than .25 with Madera being the grand champion at .31. Most other locations were at about .10 to .20. That low is already well into southern California and is being followed quickly by another low which will move into the Pacific Northwest tonight but will become an inside slider as the main dynamics move into the Great Basin rather than California. This will be the dominant theme from Saturday night through Wednesday of next week. The eastern Pacific high will remain a few hundred miles off shore with disturbances moving down the Canadian west coast, through Washington State, then mainly into the northern Rockies.
Where major weather impacts may occur will start next Thursday as an intensifying low pressure system shows up off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a very moist feed of air flanked underneath the low and into northern and central California. Historically, this pattern tends to produce heavy precipitation along the Sierra Nevada and possibly significant amounts of rain on the valley floor, depending on how the rain shadows behave.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy tonight with areas of low clouds and fog after midnight. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Monday through Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night leading to a chance of rain Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/54/33/54 | Reedley 35/55/33/54 | Dinuba 33/53/32/54 | |
| Porterville 36/55/34/54 | Lindsay 34/54/32/54 | Delano 35/55/35/54 | |
| Bakersfield 41/55/39/55 | Taft 40/56/39/55 | Arvin 38/55/35/56 | |
| Lamont 36/56/35/55 | Pixley 34/54/33/54 | Tulare 33/53/32/55 | |
| Woodlake 34/54/32/54 | Hanford 37/53/34/54 | Orosi 34/53/32/54 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Sunday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: As of 1:30pm, there were a few light showers, mainly along the Sierra Nevada foothills in Kern County and also just west of the Interstate 5 corridor. This activity will quickly wind down over the next couple of hours. It now appears our weather will remain dry through at least Wednesday. The storm track will move through the Pacific Northwest then into the Rocky Mountain region through the period. We’re still targeting Thursday of next week for a major change. A rapidly intensifying low pressure system shows up off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a moisture laden Jetstream underneath the low and into northern and central California. Historically, this has been a pattern that results in very heavy precipitation over the Sierra Nevada and possibly significant rainfall amounts on the valley floor, depending on the behavior of rain shadows. It would appear active weather will continue through next Saturday before winding down.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. it’s possible a few locations could dip into the lower 30s where it clears, but no significant frost or freeze is expected. A strong northwesterly flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will no doubt form upslope clouds along the Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare County and along the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains, maintain above freezing conditions there.
For Saturday morning and each morning through Wednesday, there is a chance colder locations could reach down into the lower 30s. However, so far it appears dew points will remain high behind today’s system, which will help maintain low level moisture for higher dew points.
After Wednesday, the chance of rain will increase for above freezing conditions for the latter part of next week and more than likely through the following weekend.
We had been discussing the possibility of a cold weather outbreak in the western U.S. beginning around the 20th. The GFS model has done a complete 180 and now shows a westerly flow across the eastern Pacific and into the western U.S., completely blocking any polar air masses. This same model also showed an arctic outbreak east of the Rockies, so let’s hope this newest model information becomes a trend.
Next report: January 10/morning